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dutch96
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05-17-2009, 11:45 AM
Post subject: How Bad running is normal?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 40
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Hi guys,
Last week Sunday I was on top of the world!! My micro challenge had been running great, from $20 to $200 in three weeks. Live play, from $ 300,00 Thursday to $1300,00 Sunday. Even sat at the final table with the ETP champion Pieter de Korver in the local 40 man sunday tournament at the casino.
"On top of the world ma!!"
Wasnt sure if it was telling my mom, coach whoever... But damn! Since then... Ive run a streek of HUGE Beats! ( Fortunately mostly online ). From $220,00 down to $20,00. Now Im not talking about, stupid two pair all in crap... Last week 3x FH over FH, 4 x Straight busted on 4 outers. 3 x Flushes busted. 1 x AA busted by JK.
Would love to post the hands but its Merge Gaming.
Anyhow, how long is a neg varience normal, and between feeling set up by the site and being superstitious of never telling anyone how well Im running.... Im about to smash things!
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dutch96
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Join Date: May 2008
Location: Netherlands
Posts: 40
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Oh and yesterday.. 3x Set over Set... gees!
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First of all, even a losing player can win at 5ptBB/100 for a period of 10,000 or 20,000 hands. See fgators' graph, he runs sick well for like 50K hands despite being a loser over 1.4M hands.
On the other side, a winning player can lose on the order of 30 buyins despite not doing anything wrong.
However, a player who totally crushes his stakes will not lose that much despite coolers and bad beats. A huge winner's results won't be that bad even despite running bad. A 5ptbb/100 winner won't lose over 10K hands that often, much less losing 30 buyins.
Listen up! The reason you have huge variance is because you're not a very good player. If you were exceptionally good, you'd probably just break even. If you become a huge winner, you won't fear variance, but rather overcome it. I haven't had a lot of variance ever since I stopped sucking.
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helpme2win$
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Two Pair
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 42
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well poker is a game of swings in imo . you have to go with the good and the bad , as far as a jinx by daying something seems like it could be true everytime i qualify threw a feedertourney , and tell some one or a forum i bomb in the next tourney
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nice_aiau
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Dunedin, New Zealand
Posts: 260
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by helpme2win$
well poker is a game of swings in imo . you have to go with the good and the bad , as far as a jinx by daying something seems like it could be true everytime i qualify threw a feedertourney , and tell some one or a forum i bomb in the next tourney
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I think you should listen to iopq
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,546
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oh hi thread I've read 48 times, good to see you're still alive and well.
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