|
andy609
|
01-06-2009, 09:31 PM
Post subject: How bad can I be and run this good
|
#1 (permalink)
|
|
3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: To the left of the dead money
Posts: 108
|
|
Back in the Good Old Days (meaning pre-Neteller shut down), I made ~4ptbb/100 at .50/1 on Full Tilt, not including bonuses and rakeback. Neteller shut down in January of 2007 and by April apparently all my donors had busted out and quit. I had a slight loss in April and by the end of the summer I myself had busted and joined the rail birds.
I continued to play a bit of live poker here and there and didn't do too well, mainly because I believe my poker face is horrible and I am extremely readable face-to-face even to a rank ameteur who is "throwing a party." I have talked to and played with a friend of mine who is a gifted people-reader and live pro at 5/10 and we agreed that my mental attitude towards bluffing and value betting has to be the same. Previously, when I would bluff, I sit there calmly figuring that since I had already technically lost the money I had just bet on the bluff, that ship had sailed and only good could come, ie, villian folds. If I use this same attitude when I value bet, any non-verbal tells I give away ought to reflect my same mindset: the chips are already in; the worst thing that can happen is he folds (or has a monster).
I never particularly liked playing online for the lack of the social aspect and actually found it quite monotonous (although perhaps this was just because I was trying to clear bonuses and qualify for the Iron Man). I did enjoy it when I was winning, however.
Shortly before Christmas, I inherited a significant amount of money. I am not a big spender and my friend the pro has always told me that he thinks I can beat the low limit NLHE games at Foxwoods. So I decided to give it a serious shot. After getting called by fourth and fifth pair several times at 1/2, and knowing that I cannot stand showdown poker (bluffing doesn't work even when you know the guy has a weak hand at best), I moved to 2/5 and did well. Not spectacular, just good; I'd consistently be up a couple hundred after a 6-8 hour session.
I have now found some underground games that are only 1/2 and thus better suited to my bankroll, as well as being nearer to home. These are against many of the same people I either lost to or witnessed me losing, so I am a bit leery of trying them again. However, I have been running insanely good. My question is simply this: is this just the good side of variance?
Over the weekend (including monday) I played 22-26 hours of these 1/2 games and made ~$1500. I estimate that I only played about 700 hands, which is nothing, but if your win rate is almost $68/hour and we conservatively (and generously) assume that 35 hands an hour are dealt that is 41.21ptbb/100. So what I'm asking boils down to this: is my ~700 hand sample so small that we cannot determine that my win rate is not positive? I mean if it were 2.5ptbb/100, that would still be more money than I was making when FT was good for me and I'd enjoy it more.
I don't want to lose grandma's money having a good time though.
|
|
|
Play for FREE and practice your game at...
Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!
|
|
kb coolman
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Oct 2008
Posts: 596
|
|
For a quick reply, you can be insanely horrible and run this good. You have an incredibly small sample size.
|
|
|
|
Ragnar4
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
|
|
Uhh.. Lemmie get this logic straight
My opponents call me down with 4th and 5th pair.
I don't like it when my opponents called me down with 4th and 5th pair
so I moved up to a level where they *won't* call me down with 4th and 5th pair?
This sounds a LOT like "I moved up because they'll respect my raises"
If they call you down with 4th and 5th pair, [quit bluffing with A high and valuebet 3rd pair and better on the river.
|
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
|
|
celtic123
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: **Officially**The worst poster on FTR
Posts: 708
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by kb coolman
........you can be insanely horrible and run this good. You have an incredibly small sample size.
|
Andy , I can varify this , reading through your post, i would say you are a better player than me.
Dont lose your Grandmas money. Stick around here and and learn man.
|
|
|
|
spoonitnow
|
|
Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
|
|
You can be any skill level and run any possible win-rate over any possible sample.
And that's why we make money.
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
|
|
|
nice_aiau
|
|
Flush
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Dunedin, New Zealand
Posts: 260
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
And that's why we make money.
|
I love the moniiiies
|
|
|
|
a500lbgorilla
|
|
JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
|
|
Quote:
|
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
You can be any skill level and run any possible win-rate over any possible sample.
And that's why we make money.
|
Game of skill, ldo
|
Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
|
|
sil693
|
|
Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Birmingham, UK
Posts: 609
|
|
if i sit down at a table at a 200/400 table, pick up AA in my first hand and get it all in vs KK and take a stack on my very first hand, it doesnt mean I will have a + winrate at that level.
700 hands is smaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaal.
|
|
|
|
Micro2Macro
|
|
Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
|
|
I've played 700+ hands in an hour.
I'm sure there are guys here who have done that in twenty minutes.
|
|
|
English
Deutsch
Español
Français
Italiano
Nederlands
Pусский
Svenska
05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
Linear Mode
