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Hit Trips and avoid a big loss

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jobupoker

02-14-2005, 06:11 PM Post subject: Hit Trips and avoid a big loss

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: May 2004

Location: Raleigh, NC

Posts: 111

I am dealt 66 in early position (ring game)

I call the BB and so do a couple of others.

Flop: K 9 6 (rainbow)

I believe in raising when I hit trips. (it disguises the fact that I hit them and builds the pot, i feel it makes up for the times when everyone folds to my raise) so I raise 1/2 pot. I get one caller (who has me covered).

Turn: 4

I feel the opponent has top pair. I bet pot. He just calls.

River: 7 or someting.

The pot is about the size of my stack at this point so I push.

He turns over 99.

Any way to avoid this?

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a500lbgorilla

02-14-2005, 06:12 PM

#2 (permalink)

JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD

Join Date: Sep 2004

Location: This room is a good place to be

Posts: 8,379

If you don't lose all your money there, you played it wrong.

-'rilla

Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.

Yeldud

02-14-2005, 06:24 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 149

This belongs in bad beats.

Great quote Rilla, great quote.

If you put all your faith in the river, you are up shit's creek

gregor

02-14-2005, 07:09 PM

#4 (permalink)

Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 95

perfect storm hand w/rainbow....you should be trying to get all in, which i am sure 99 would have helped you do.....sucks, but thats poker....

02-14-2005, 07:11 PM

#5 (permalink)

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{This post has been removed}

Usuyami

02-14-2005, 07:14 PM

#6 (permalink)

Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 62

or you'll have the bigger set!! haha, I still remember my KK hitting a set, someone pushes me all in with 99 cuz they hit a set too. Man, when the cards flipped over, I was happy happy.

ilikeaces86

02-14-2005, 07:22 PM

#7 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2004

Posts: 2,141

Quote:

Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla

If you don't lose all your money there, you played it wrong.

-'rilla

If I flop the bottom set I will consider folding it if there is a lot of action in front of me Im talking like 2 people all in before I act...but only rarely will I lay it especially if I have no kind of read on the guys.

EasyT

02-14-2005, 07:37 PM

#8 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: Yo Mamma

Posts: 834

My understanding is that you usually should call with any pocket pair unless there's some good reason not to (big raise). You'll miss your set 7 times out of 8. And you shouldn't be in for very much and you can easily let go. But on the eighth time when you hit, your hand is so well concealed that you can usually cover your losses from the first 7 and then some.

Now if you wind up losing your whole stack with the set, that really throws a wrench into the formula.

-1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, +12 = +5.
-1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, +12, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -1, -25 = -27.

I guess even in the long run, as long as you don't lose WITH THE TRIPS more than one time in 6, you're still ahead (on average).

I'd like to see some posted hands where other people LOST with the flopped concealed set. Not because I'm sadistic, but for discussion purposes.

Bmxicle

02-14-2005, 10:50 PM

#9 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: Vancouver

Posts: 947

I just lost in a 6 person sit n' go. I Flopped trip fours, on 9h 7c 4c. I was big stack, and he was about 1/2 of my stack. He made a potsized bet, i re-raised all in, hoping to take it down there, but i wouldn't have been unhappy with a call. He had 5c6c and hit the flush on the river. I figure that was about a coinflip once he called, and although i lost i still think i played it properly (unless someone can show me otherwise).

BL Mike

02-14-2005, 11:02 PM

#10 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by EasyT

I'd like to see some posted hands where other people LOST with the flopped concealed set. Not because I'm sadistic, but for discussion purposes.

I had the following hand over the weekend in a $1/$2 NL live game in a casino:

I'm dealt 33.

There was a pre-flop raise to $15. I called as did one other player. Flop comes:

3 4 6 rainbow.

First player checks, I bet $50 because there was one very loose player behind me who might play anything including A5o(even to a raise). That player immediately moves all in with about $150. Other player folded. I called.

The aggressor turns over 25o (yes, played to a $15 pre-flop raise). The board did NOT pair and I went down. I have no regrets about the hand though. Just bad luck against a bad player who lost it all about 2 hours later with this type of play.

02-14-2005, 11:15 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Demiparadigm

02-15-2005, 12:57 AM

#12 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Feb 2005

Location: Party 6 max

Posts: 1,602

Trips vs a draw is much better than 2:1. They will make the straight/flush 2:1, but you are about 2:1 to make a full house(or 4 of a kind) and win even when they make their draw. Never fear the draw. make them pay for it.

BL Mike

02-15-2005, 01:21 AM

#13 (permalink)

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Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

thats a textbook example when trips on the flop is basically worthless

Not sure I understand this. I put him on an open ended straight. That's 8 outs which gives him a 31% chance of hitting his straight before the river. That makes me a 69% favorite, I certainly wouldn't call my set worthless in that case. Even if he already had the straight (and I certainly couldn't put him on 2-5 with a 7xBB pre-flop raise), I'm still 38% to get my full house. Again, that doesn't seem "basically worthless" to me. I'm confused, Ripptyde.

02-15-2005, 02:13 AM

#14 (permalink)

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johnnyawe

02-15-2005, 02:29 AM

#15 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2004

Location: San Francisco

Posts: 1,064

Rippy, so if you're playing with a marked deck and you know you have a set and the other guy has a 4-flush.. you're telling me you would fold? That is ridiculous.

In a cash game, if you are 51% or more to win, then you want to get as much money in the pot as possible. Up to and including all-in.

Tournament is a lot different but it still would be ridiculous to lay down your set to a flush draw.

johnnyawe

02-15-2005, 02:38 AM

#16 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2004

Location: San Francisco

Posts: 1,064

double post.

johnnyawe

02-15-2005, 02:44 AM

#17 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2004

Location: San Francisco

Posts: 1,064

double post.

ilikeaces86

02-15-2005, 02:48 AM

#18 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Nov 2004

Posts: 2,141

Quote:

Originally Posted by johnnyawe

Rippy, so if you have a set and you know another guy has a 4-flush.. you're telling me you would fold? That is ridiculous.

In a cash game, if you are 51% or more to win, then you want to get as much money into the pot as possible. Up to and including all-in.

Tournament is a lot different but it still would be ridiculous to lay down your set to a flush draw.

Obviously I don think he meant that maybe.

Laeelin

02-15-2005, 03:11 AM

#19 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005

Posts: 1,137

Can ya'll two repete that again for thoes of use who are a little slow?

Q. Is poker Gambling?
A. Do you use correct bankroll management?

johnnyawe

02-15-2005, 06:55 AM

#20 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Apr 2004

Location: San Francisco

Posts: 1,064

double post.

BL Mike

02-15-2005, 09:27 AM

#21 (permalink)

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Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

the point here is you hung your balls out there with a 1/3 chance of getting busted out

play the set when your entire stack isnt at risk

This is ridiculous! I'll take chances in a cash game I wouldn't in a tournament situation. Even if I could put the guy on the straight (which I didn't, given that there was pretty significant pre-flop raising and I doubt if many could), when he went all in, there was $100 in the pot. He made it $250 total. That made it another $100 to me. I'll bet my set there almost every time -- what am I afraid of? Not a flush -- the flop was rainbow!! A straight? Well, if he kept 2-5 or 5-7 then he's going to beat me some but I'm still going to beat him with my FH 38% of the time. A straight draw? Again, I like my odds.

In the cash games I play, a move like he made is usually an over pair. Regardless, I just can't see my set being "basically worthless" in a situation like this, and I can't figure out the math that supports that contention.

BL Mike

02-15-2005, 09:28 AM

#22 (permalink)

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Posts: n/a

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

the point here is you hung your balls out there with a 1/3 chance of getting busted out

play the set when your entire stack isnt at risk

gregor

02-15-2005, 02:10 PM

#23 (permalink)

Join Date: Feb 2005

Posts: 95

i got flushed on my concealed trips last night....river....

Funny that a flush will come on the turn/river only 34% of the time, yet people play it like a coinflip....i went all in, he had horrible odds and called anyways...i wouldn't have made the call he did, unless he put me on garbage, but i was playing very tight...

Pyroxene

02-15-2005, 05:53 PM

#24 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 236

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bmxicle

Given those cards and that flop, Pokerstove:

44 wins 57.9%
56s wins 42.1%

You were ahead. Assuming the preflop pot was non-trivial in relation to your stack size, you were right to raise and he was right to call. Your raise was right because you were most likely to win and thus getting money in there was good and might cause him to fold outright. His call was right because he only needs 1.4:1 pot odds to make it an even money call.

Like Rippy said, it will be a rough ride.

This is something that Mike Caro talks about in some articles. There are times when opponent A should raise AND opponent B should call the raise. It may sound unintuitive, but it is just a mathematically demonstrable fact.

Pyroxene

RiverMonkey

02-15-2005, 08:51 PM

#25 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Nov 2004

Posts: 446

Quote:

Originally Posted by EasyT

I'd like to see some posted hands where other people LOST with the flopped concealed set. Not because I'm sadistic, but for discussion purposes.

http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...pic.php?t=7102

FlyingSaucy

02-15-2005, 09:52 PM

#26 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Oct 2004

Location: Watching the kids

Posts: 1,603

I wouldn't say that when you flop a set that the possibility of someone else flopping a different set is so remote that it is not worth worrying about. In fact, it is because of this possibility that you should put more value in higher sets, and play them stronger. Both preflop with your pocket pairs and postflop when you hit the set. Isn't that obvious??

We are not talking about two random hands hitting a set on the flop. We are talking about two players that have decided it's worth it to see the flop with their hands.

You can't throw all caution to the wind if you flop bottom set. I think it's wrong to assume you're taking someone's stack by slow playing it too. If I flop bottom set, I'll put in a pot sized bet. If I get called or re-raised, I have to seriously think about it. It's not an automatic chalk up. In fact that's why a lot of people fold 22-55 at a full table in early position. Why not wait until you have a higher PP and hit your set? It's safer and more likely to be the best hand.

Molinero

02-16-2005, 03:12 PM

#27 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jul 2004

Location: In The General Vicinity of Dallas

Posts: 230

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

the point here is you hung your balls out there with a 1/3 chance of getting busted out

play the set when your entire stack isnt at risk

the flush draw will burn you everytime (ala poker stars) if you have all your chips in the pot

flopping a set is nice but I wont put my wad in the middle if the board has two or 3 suited cards

interesting you should say this...

I almost cracked KK with 44 when I flopped a set. He bet into me on the flop, which had two hearts -- so I pushed a massive raise at him, putting him all in.

Problem is, the flop was 10-high; why should he fold? He's not gonna put me on a set.

Runner-runner, etc. Guess it serves me right for calling his raise with 44.

"We thought you was a toad!"
-- O Brother Where Art Thou?

ampersandman

02-21-2005, 08:28 AM

#28 (permalink)

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: Adelaide, Australia

Posts: 31

Playing heads up. I lost J's to A's he got the third ace on the Turn. Lost the lot! He slow played the AA, all the way from pre-flop. Even checked on the river, I pushed all-in, he calls. Then I remember, "If I don't lose on this one, I'm not playing right."

--
You have to realize the NL is all about the pairs
- ilikeaces86

Greedo017

02-22-2005, 10:49 PM

#29 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2005

Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot

Posts: 1,461

to me, if you're folding low pocket pairs preflop, out of fear that even if they set you'd fold because someone might make a higher pocket pair, this game might not be cut out for you.

Hubris1

02-25-2005, 09:08 AM

#30 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Dec 2004

Posts: 163

Deeze had been trapping people all night and showing down the goods, the limp UTG into a monster re-raise I put him on an overpair, but the two x re-raise into the 40% pot bet had me pretty worried. Not the best laydown, but I was pretty glad I did when they showed down.

*********** # 65 **************
PokerStars Game #1267144491: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2005/02/25 - 04:01:31 (ET)
Table 'Diomedes' Seat #5 is the button
Seat 3: Hubris1 ($50.10 in chips)
Seat 4: titan42 ($31.30 in chips)
Seat 5: gohue ($51.20 in chips)
Seat 6: kman22 ($46.90 in chips)
Seat 7: keenedaddy ($35.25 in chips)
Seat 8: gimmedawatch ($31.85 in chips)
Seat 9: deez1233 ($57.60 in chips)
kman22: posts small blind $0.25
keenedaddy: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hubris1 [8c 8d]
gimmedawatch: folds
deez1233: calls $0.50
Hubris1: raises $0.50 to $1
titan42: folds
gohue: folds
kman22: calls $0.75
keenedaddy: calls $0.50
deez1233: raises $2.50 to $3.50
Hubris1: calls $2.50
kman22: calls $2.50
keenedaddy: folds
*** FLOP *** [9s Td 8h]
kman22: checks
deez1233: checks
Hubris1: bets $4
kman22: calls $4
deez1233: raises $9 to $13
gimmedawatch leaves the table
Hubris1: folds
kman22: raises $30.40 to $43.40 and is all-in
deez1233: calls $30.40
*** TURN *** [9s Td 8h] [3h]
*** RIVER *** [9s Td 8h 3h] [5h]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
kman22: shows [9d 9h] (three of a kind, Nines)
deez1233: shows [Ts Th] (three of a kind, Tens)
deez1233 collected $99.30 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $102.30 | Rake $3
Board [9s Td 8h 3h 5h]
Seat 3: Hubris1 folded on the Flop
Seat 4: titan42 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: gohue (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: kman22 (small blind) showed [9d 9h] and lost with three of a kind, Nines
Seat 7: keenedaddy (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 8: gimmedawatch folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: deez1233 showed [Ts Th] and won ($99.30) with three of a kind, Tens

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