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CBAT
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03-31-2009, 04:07 PM
Post subject: Hit the set...now what?
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NY
Posts: 831
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PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
Button ($14.65)
SB ($25.85)
BB ($14.60)
UTG ($24.90)
UTG+1 ($26.80)
Hero (MP1) ($36.95)
MP2 ($44.35)
CO ($24.30)
Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 6 , 6
UTG bets $1, 1 fold, Hero calls $1, MP2 calls $1, 2 folds, SB raises to $3.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.50, 1 fold
Flop: ($9) 4 , 6, A (2 players)
SB bets $4.50, Hero....
Total pot: $9
I'm wondering about bet sizing here. Villain is 15/11/ 7.1 3bet /INF AF over 50 hands
{converted by Stax - Sorry... It hurt my eyes}
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Warpe
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Moderator
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Canuckistan
Posts: 3,905
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...pays off AA. U need a read that he ONLY 3-bets AA pre to fold here.
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Lucothefish
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Cretaceous Park
Posts: 642
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Stick one hand down your pants and the other on SHIP IT?
He's betting low on this flop, I enjoy an occasional minraise to pot here so I can build the pot knowing he's not gonna fold to it. If he's sitting on rockets, then damn.
With no reads, no stakes (is this $25NL perchance?), no stacks and nothing to help range this guy it's hard to say what I'd do on the turn & river.
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<@d0zer> how will you learn if I don't berate you harshly?
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,237
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Fold preflop.
C'mon now.
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Parkour to you!
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Lucothefish
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Cretaceous Park
Posts: 642
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bbickes
Fold preflop.
C'mon now.
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How can you say that without knowing his stack size? This is an incomplete HH...
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<@d0zer> how will you learn if I don't berate you harshly?
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shit never mind
didn't see the 3b
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sil693
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Birmingham, UK
Posts: 609
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fold pre. raise now ldo.
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CBAT
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NY
Posts: 831
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lucothefish
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bbickes
Fold preflop.
C'mon now.
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How can you say that without knowing his stack size? This is an incomplete HH... |
Look again, I updated the HH.
I am raising, I was curious as to how much? I made it $12.
He folded QQ (is what he said in the chat).
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ColdDecked
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 191
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by CBAT
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lucothefish
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Bbickes
Fold preflop.
C'mon now.
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How can you say that without knowing his stack size? This is an incomplete HH... |
Look again, I updated the HH.
I am raising, I was curious as to how much? I made it $12.
He folded QQ (is what he said in the chat). |
I say make it around 10. This way, your turn shove would give him ~3:1 and he can't fold AK with odds like that.
It's a bit of a weak 3bet, but you'd pretty much have to stack him all the time to get the right set odds here. And if you don't think your opponent will stack off light, this probably wouldn't be a good call. If you do hit your set though, they probably won't put you on a set, since you're calling a 3bet w/ 66.
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bikes
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a hot damn mess
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2007
Posts: 2,237
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He's never folding an A ever its a 3b pot. Don't set mine in 3b pots its a horrid habit to get into and you will get brutally owned as you move up.
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Parkour to you!
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,515
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don't raise the flop
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
don't raise the flop
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odd. This is the first time you and I have agreed in like months.
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,515
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yea you probably had the wrong reasons though
I JUST KEEEEEEEEEEEEDING
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Muzzard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Cheshire, UK
Posts: 1,843
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
don't raise the flop
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This.
and fold pre
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2ndline.4thstreet
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 120
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Fold pre.
As played, flat the flop and shove the turn. If he has AA then good for him.
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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@ op.
Do you know "why" you should fold pre?
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
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CBAT
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Full House
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: NY
Posts: 831
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ragnar4
@ op.
Do you know "why" you should fold pre?
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umm, it costs me 2.25 more which is about 1/10th of my stack, so to be profitable I have to get all the money in when I do hit the set?
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KeeKoLy
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Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 78
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
don't raise the flop
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Why? I have been watching all the vids over at GS, and I don't think I have ever seen you check a hand like this (slowplay....not done with all the vids yet though  ).
Normally you are conveying that we should be trying to figure out how to get it all in. In this case if we call the flop bet, there will be $18 in the pot, with villain having 18 left, making getting it all in fairly easy if we shove the turn. Am I getting close?
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killerkebab
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 149
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We shouldn't raise the flop here and give him a reason to fold QQ-KK prematurely, essentially.
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PlayToWin
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 601
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by killerkebab
We shouldn't raise the flop here and give him a reason to fold QQ-KK prematurely, essentially.
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Yea, but villian is betting small on the flop and there's a flush draw. Don't we want to take away his drawing odds?
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Explain...what I do for a living without saying "I make monies in da 600 enels by pwnin' tha donk bitches". Instead I say "I'm a online financial redistribution broker". - Sasquach991
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celtic123
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: **Officially**The worst poster on FTR
Posts: 708
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[quote="CBAT"
He folded QQ (is what he said in the chat).[/quote]
I hate results.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,371
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PlayToWin
Quote:
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Originally Posted by killerkebab
We shouldn't raise the flop here and give him a reason to fold QQ-KK prematurely, essentially.
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Yea, but villian is betting small on the flop and there's a flush draw. Don't we want to take away his drawing odds? |
A flush draw would be unlikely to be in his range here given his 3-bet against an early position opener.
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
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http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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ATOTHEC101
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Full House
Join Date: May 2008
Posts: 1,248
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Definitely fold preflop, as played don't raise the flop, lets see a turn.
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"This sure beats Super Mario Bros.!" is my ejaculation catch phrase.
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Keith
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,277
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ragnar4
@ op.
Do you know "why" you should fold pre?
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Can I take a stab at this and just check my reasoning.
UTG has raised so should be on a pretty tight range say QQ+ , AK. with 1$ to call the odds are thereandf his stack is big enough, so that hitting the set with the 15:1 rule it will pay off . Once it is then reraised by SB with a stack of $25.85 , his stack isn't big enough to pay off under the 15:1 rule so that it then becomes a fold.
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killerkebab
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 149
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by PlayToWin
Quote:
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Originally Posted by killerkebab
We shouldn't raise the flop here and give him a reason to fold QQ-KK prematurely, essentially.
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Yea, but villian is betting small on the flop and there's a flush draw. Don't we want to take away his drawing odds? |
Other than AhKh, which we're stacking off with anyway, what flush draws do you see in our opponent's range?
QQ - 6 combinations
KK - 6 combinations
AA - 3 combinations
AK - 12 combinations, of which AhKh is 1.
Now, why are we afraid of flush draws again?
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BigPapi
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Rotterdam, Holland
Posts: 437
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If he has KK-QQ he's not putting anymore money in the pot anyway. So we raise to get value from hands that are drawing or have hit the ace, which are in his range a lot.
this range above by killerkebab is not 7.1% which he 3bets. 7.1% is much wider. So there could be some fd's in his range and most definitely Ax's.
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dtamburin
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: New York
Posts: 65
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I'd of folded preflop and I wouldn't raise the flop. I'd push the turn.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,515
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oh he'll put more money in the pot with KK/QQ, we just have to let him
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,588
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BigPapi
If he has KK-QQ he's not putting anymore money in the pot anyway. So we raise to get value from hands that are drawing or have hit the ace, which are in his range a lot.
this range above by killerkebab is not 7.1% which he 3bets. 7.1% is much wider. So there could be some fd's in his range and most definitely Ax's.
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What do you expect villain to do with Ax here if we raise? Assuming it's not AK. Is he stacking off with AQ/AJ? What about KK/QQ/JJ? I'm not going to rule out villain having flush draws in his range. But come on... It's a 3bet pot and we have a set on a good board. If villain hits a flush we still have redraws (10 outs). There is now way I'm raising this board and letting villain fold Ax, KK, QQ. Especially when we can all have a PSB left on the turn.
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killerkebab
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 149
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by BigPapi
If he has KK-QQ he's not putting anymore money in the pot anyway. So we raise to get value from hands that are drawing or have hit the ace, which are in his range a lot.
this range above by killerkebab is not 7.1% which he 3bets. 7.1% is much wider. So there could be some fd's in his range and most definitely Ax's.
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Sample size is 50 hands. All that means is that he's 3bet once before on this table. We've called a raise and then called a 3bet - if anything I'd say there are more flush draws in our range than villain's.
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BigPapi
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: Rotterdam, Holland
Posts: 437
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i see your point(s). didn't realize it was 50 hands though. If we think he'll bluff it often enough I agree we can just c/c down till the money is in the pot. What do you think of this then: now you can still get value from his Ax hands etc. what if another heart comes on the turn? even though it's unlikely he has it, it may kill the action no? Better line against a less agressive player (even though only 50 hands)
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Numbr2intheWorld
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,539
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spenda's right, you should flat the flop. It's actually really simple:
-He's a tight ass and his raise size suggests he's never bluffing here. It also suggests he doesn't have ak so we're going to put him on a range of just like JJ+ (even if he has AK, it doesn't matter whether you raise the flop or not he's stacking off anyway)
- If he has AA you're gonna lose
- So if he has KK-JJ, whats the best way to get money in? Since he is oop, he can make a lot of mistakes if you flat the flop. He could bet the turn himself, c/c the turn, maybe even c/shove the turn just because he puts you on a fd or something. If you raise, he'll most likely fold all these hands.
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PlayToWin
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 601
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by killerkebab
Quote:
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Originally Posted by PlayToWin
Quote:
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Originally Posted by killerkebab
We shouldn't raise the flop here and give him a reason to fold QQ-KK prematurely, essentially.
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Yea, but villian is betting small on the flop and there's a flush draw. Don't we want to take away his drawing odds? |
Other than AhKh, which we're stacking off with anyway, what flush draws do you see in our opponent's range?
QQ - 6 combinations
KK - 6 combinations
AA - 3 combinations
AK - 12 combinations, of which AhKh is 1.
Now, why are we afraid of flush draws again? |
I agree with both you and Micro2Macro due to the 3-bet pot. I was wroooong.
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Explain...what I do for a living without saying "I make monies in da 600 enels by pwnin' tha donk bitches". Instead I say "I'm a online financial redistribution broker". - Sasquach991
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,147
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Calling pre is fine since we're in pos
I'd flat flop too.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,147
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
oh he'll put more money in the pot with KK/QQ, we just have to let him
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Well this is kind of wrong. He's probably not going to bet anymore after cbetting if he has KK-JJ. But if he does check the turn a bet there puts overall more money in the pot and is less strong looking than a flop raise.
And lets not be retarded here he's putting his stack in with AQ-AJ if he happened to threebet 100% of the time if we raise the flop. But he probably didn't 3bet them, and even if we call he's still putting his stack in a majority of the time some way or another.
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