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Micro2Macro
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11-12-2009, 07:44 PM
Post subject: Here's a spot where folding KK preflop is correct
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#1 (permalink)
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
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UTG+1 is a weak tightish regular, 15/6ish, ATS like 18
MP1 is a bit of an aggressive regular, 16/12, positionally aware
SB is a super nit 8/4 over 300 hands. His sizing also shows he's never considering bluffing here ever but rather choosing to play his hand in the most face up manner humanly possible.
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com
CO ($27.70)
Button ($27.50)
SB ($33.60)
Hero (BB) ($25)
UTG ($27.10)
UTG+1 ($33.50)
MP1 ($25)
MP2 ($28.70)
MP3 ($26.30)
Preflop: Hero is BB with K , K
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $1, MP1 raises to $2.50, 4 folds, SB INSTA raises to $8
---at this point we need to pause, take a deep breath, and focus on the situation presented to us. We have KK, and we're facing an interesting string of action - a string of action which suggests we fold given the information we have, on the SB in particular.
What this example illustrates is that there is a time and a place for everything (except folding aces preflop, although it could be correct under satellite/DON games) and it's your job to weigh in all the factors and analyze the situation objectively. In this instance, if you choose to jam your Kings, you are emotionally attatched to the hand and have lost all capability of interpreting and reacting correctly to the ranges of the other players in the hand. It's clearly obvious we're behind here, yet I know for a fact some of you will refuse to fold. This is essentially a spot that will show you you have leaks in many other spots. I also bet some of the repsonses in this thread will be 'well he could have AK!? we could be ahead?' Yeah you know what, he COULD have AK, and we COULD be ahead. You're going to fold the best hand sometimes, and that's poker. But I strongly believe if SB ever has a bluff in his range, its more like a 10% weighting compared to 90% value (KK+). For the 10% of the time you were ahead, the other 90% you're chopping at best - and there's only 1 combo of KK left in the deck.
I'm open for criticism, I used to be in the 'never will I fold KK preflop camp' untill I realized how much money it cost me.
(I still can't get over how horrendous SB's sizing is)
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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littleogre
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 1,344
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given his stats i can't imagine sb is 3-betting anything less then kings.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by littleogre
given his stats i can't imagine sb is 3-betting anything less then kings.
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good point, and yet here we are dealing with his cold 4bet range.
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
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what do we suggest SB raise to? like 6? it's not like he has to worry about balance here because nobody (not even nutsinho?) is ever cold 4b bluffing here so he doesn't have to worry about balance. he just has to hope that someone makes a mistake. whereas raising to 6 gives him like only very very slightly less than perfect pot odds to set mine (it's <10:1, but considering SPR, hand strength and position, 10:1 seems PLENTY to me)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas.  |
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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I support this fold.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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Don't be so rediculous, yoo can't fold cowbois pre flop in da pokars obv!!!!
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Yeah obv fold. And SB's sizing to 32bb is a bit large, but it probably doesn't matter, as UTG+1/MP1 aren't going to 5bet bluff shove, and making it say 5bb smaller isn't going to affect their continuing range. Also SB is never cold 4bet bluffing here, so obv the sizing isn't entirely important.
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jjbish
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 84
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
I support this fold.
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But I'd still hate myself for doing it. 
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NH, WP, GG, TY, Etc..........................
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d0zer
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Moderator
Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 2,519
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inb4 a billion microdonk threads bragging about folding KK pre cuz a 8/6 over 30 hands 3bet.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jjbish
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
I support this fold.
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But I'd still hate myself for doing it. |
Hate yourself for doing it in a retarded spot. Be proud when you do it in obviously the right spot.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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hyPOTcrisy
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11-13-2009, 04:43 PM
Post subject: Oppiste is true as well
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#11 (permalink)
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Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: California
Posts: 10
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I recently played a hand where the nit was UTG and raised the standard 3x. I had AA on the BB and everyone folded around to me. This was a $25NL game and the nit had about $18 and I had slightly covered. This guy has just raised from UTG with numbers like 6/0/0 over 150 hands. This was an easy push as I knew he would call. His range is AA,KK,AKs and he’s not laying ANY of those down in this situation. It was AKs and he did not improve and I took his $12.00. The point being, there was ZERO reason to slow play this hand. Had I waited until the flop ( don’t recall what it was but obviously it did not help him ) I would have only gotten his preflop raise.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by surviva316
what do we suggest SB raise to? like 6? it's not like he has to worry about balance here because nobody (not even nutsinho?) is ever cold 4b bluffing here so he doesn't have to worry about balance. he just has to hope that someone makes a mistake. whereas raising to 6 gives him like only very very slightly less than perfect pot odds to set mine (it's <10:1, but considering SPR, hand strength and position, 10:1 seems PLENTY to me)
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$6-$6.50 is good I guess. At least make him consider making the (huge) mistake of calling our 4bet. Like I've seen guys call in spots like this with AK to smaller 4bets because of the 'great price' - 4betting too large just allows villain to play vs our range perfectly/correctly. Yeah we may never bluff here, but if we're going to turn our hand face up lets at least give him a chance to talk himself into calling. $8 is just asking for folds, and its an expensive option if SB were ever to bluff.
If we make it 6.25 it's 3.75 for MP1 to call, so he's getting like 6:1 'stack odds' thus not even close to correct odds to set mine (this is ignoring the dead money in the pot making his odds slightly better). The only pairs (presumably) in his range are QQ/KK. If we size down our 4bet we may get him to make a 'fuck it call' with AK - and such a huge mistake like that will make us alot of money. Even calling with QQ is bad, because yeah he COULD think he can set mine, but is he really just going to be able to fold QQ as an overpair postflop in a huge pot if hes bad enough to call pre with it? Especially if the board comes out 7xx and you bet 1/3-1/4 pot. SB should give him a chance to make a mistake preflop, which will oftentimes lead to mistakes postflop. Postflop bet sizing should be creative to manipulate his range in our favour as much as possible since it's going to be very narrow and we want to keep it as wide as we can to maxmize value - same goes for preflop. It is clear the SB put no effort into sizing his raise strategically preflop in order to maximize his EV because he's a terrible fucking nit who's a 25nl FPP amateur who is incapable of thinking beyond what he holds and how big he should bet to avoid being called so he can't get sucked out on.
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"
http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
$6-$6.50 is good I guess. At least make him consider making the (huge) mistake of calling our 4bet........etc.
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meh, yeah, i forgot about the fact that 4b'ing smaller is gonna tempt villains to do something retarded with AK.
my thing about the set mining wasn't suggesting that we are playing exploitably if we bet 6-6.50, because obv there's no way you can slice it where villain has the right odds to do so, i meant that if he did call with a smaller pair, it would be a much smaller mistake because his odds are only slightly terrible than if he continued to a larger 4b. this of course assumes that villain plays his hand perfectly, which SHOULD be ridiculously easy to do because SB's hand is so face up, but like you say, if villain is bad enough to think he can set mine here, then he's bad enough to not play his hand perfectly here, so set mining goes from a minor mistake to a pretty friggin' big one.
i just figured that bet sizing was the most interesting part of this thread, so i'd try discussing it
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas. |
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TheKid0151
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Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 11
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Also wise to fold A A, K K, A K when say it's the final table and 2 or more people have moved all-in. Let them slug it out and move one place up the money tree without putting yourself at risk of a donk or bad beat.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TheKid0151
Also wise to fold A A, K K, A K when say it's the final table and 2 or more people have moved all-in. Let them slug it out and move one place up the money tree without putting yourself at risk of a donk or bad beat.
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Not usually with AA/KK. This can be true in satellites or DoNs pretty often though.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by surviva316
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
$6-$6.50 is good I guess. At least make him consider making the (huge) mistake of calling our 4bet........etc.
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meh, yeah, i forgot about the fact that 4b'ing smaller is gonna tempt villains to do something retarded with AK.
my thing about the set mining wasn't suggesting that we are playing exploitably if we bet 6-6.50, because obv there's no way you can slice it where villain has the right odds to do so, i meant that if he did call with a smaller pair, it would be a much smaller mistake because his odds are only slightly terrible than if he continued to a larger 4b. this of course assumes that villain plays his hand perfectly, which SHOULD be ridiculously easy to do because SB's hand is so face up, but like you say, if villain is bad enough to think he can set mine here, then he's bad enough to not play his hand perfectly here, so set mining goes from a minor mistake to a pretty friggin' big one.
i just figured that bet sizing was the most interesting part of this thread, so i'd try discussing it |
gl folding your 66 on an A63ss flop.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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TheKid0151
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Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 11
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
Quote:
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Originally Posted by TheKid0151
Also wise to fold A A, K K, A K when say it's the final table and 2 or more people have moved all-in. Let them slug it out and move one place up the money tree without putting yourself at risk of a donk or bad beat.
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Not usually with AA/KK. This can be true in satellites or DoNs pretty often though. |
Have you played on iPoker 
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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another hand where some solid players seem to like folding KK pre
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...71.html#963934
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ljove
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 80
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If he got aces it is not important if you got kings or deuces.You have to hit a set or any other stronger hand.Good fold.
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AnTman_69
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Brisbane, Australia
Posts: 463
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i'm never playing fullring. jeez.
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Carroters
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Da Amberlamps
Posts: 2,216
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Fuck full ring
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tinad01
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Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: canada
Posts: 1
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i think that fold KK in the right time is never bad
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surviva316
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Confusing people with my liberal biblicisms
Posts: 1,625
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technically shoving 72o in the right time is never bad
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BooG690
I just wanted to share singing vaginas. |
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I'll only fold kk in 1st position, 5th through 10th position maybe depending on the strength at the table.
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I'm actually not sure about htat
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