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argash

10-21-2009, 04:04 AM Post subject: Help me with odds

#1 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Sep 2009

Location: Austin

Posts: 98

I'm still trying to wrap my brain around pot odds and implied odds so I couldn't figure in my head fast enough if I had the right odds to call here. Villain was running 23/3 over 40ish hands.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO ($0.37)
Button ($1.06)
Hero (SB) ($2.21)
BB ($0.79)
UTG ($0.42)
Villian (UTG+1) ($0.83)
MP1 ($0.43)
MP2 ($0.95)
MP3 ($1)

Preflop: Hero is SB with

UTG calls $0.02, Villian calls $0.02, MP1 calls $0.02, MP2 calls $0.02, 2 folds, Button calls $0.02, Hero calls $0.01, BB checks

Flop: ($0.14)

(7 players)
Hero bets $0.10, BB calls $0.10, 1 fold, Villian raises to $0.54, 3 folds, Hero ????

If I'm doing my math right my odds to hit by the river are 2.3-1 and my implied odds are 2.6-1 which means that I should call here correct?

BTW I had his range on 99+, AJ+ I think the huge raise takes possible sets out of his range.

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TheBowlBoy

10-21-2009, 04:55 AM

#2 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2009

Posts: 55

There is .88 in the pot and you have to call .44 so your immediate pot odds are 2:1.

When you're figuring out your implied odds you're missing out on the fact that you're going to be pot committed when you miss the turn so if you're going to call, then you should just shove which would be $1.18 to your .73 or 1.61 to 1 implied odds which isn't good enough to make a shove or a call profitable.

Don't calculate your odds of hitting by the river with 2 cards to come unless you're taking into account how much it will actually cost you to see both the turn and the river.

As played I probably ship it in because I suspect that 9's or 10's are good for outs a decent amount of the time against a 40bb stacker who is probably willing to get it in with any piece.

Your range that you put him on is way too tight. Think about what a 23/5's liming range is. He only has 40bb in his stack so he is more likely going to commit with any piece here.

I don't like the lead out on the flop here though. The board is drawy and its very likely you're going to get called. Sometimes that can be a good thing when betting a draw to build a pot, but effective stack sizes are too small for that. You only need 2 streets to get the money in with a made straight against 40bb stackers so there is no need to build a pot with your draw.

Just check and try to get a cheap turn and river with as much money behind as possible.

Stacks

10-21-2009, 06:10 AM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2008

Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.

Posts: 2,605

Don't lead the flop. Here in a 7 way limped pot on a somewhat drawy board (flush draws, straight draws, two pair, sets, etc) you don't have much, if any fold equity. The fact that the majority of villains is short lessens that fold equity since they are likely to felt almost any piece. If we assume your 8 straight outs are good, then you don't really have enough equity to valuebet, so in essence your lead builds a pot in which you are behind in and they aren't likely to fold. Also the presence of a flush draw lessens the value of your straight draw, as only 6 outs are to the nuts.

Don't get me wrong, if there wasn't so many villains in the pot (2 villains or so), then I would advocate a lead, as you have much more fold equity, as well as pretty solid pot equity when called. But here with virtually no fold equity, it's probably bet to check/evaluate depending on pot/implied odds. Remember seeing a free card isn't the worst thing ever with your draw.

thedarwinfish

10-21-2009, 02:16 PM

#4 (permalink)

Join Date: Sep 2009

Posts: 31

I'm with the others. Too many people to be betting into this. You probably don't have as many outs as you think as if someone's on a heart draw then Jh and 6h are bad cards for you.

Try and catch a free card or even let someone else bet to find out where everyone else is. If you hit your straight there's a good chance someone else in the mix has enough of a hand to hand you some money along the way.

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