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stiener17
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10-22-2004, 03:50 AM
Post subject: Help me figure this stat out please.
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Wilmington, DE
Posts: 3
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Can someone help me figure out that lets say I have a pocket pair (3,3) and I make a large bet and everyone folds except for one person who calls. Assuming that he does not have a pocket pair, what are the odds that he will pair one of his cards on the flop. Thank you for any help. Stiener
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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2 * (3C1)(47C2) / (50C3) = 33%
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Humphrind
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: May 2004
Location: Kansas City
Posts: 1,887
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If you have 33 preflop and are called by 1 person, he will almost always have overs (the only way he wouldn't is if he held onto 22 or 33)
In tournaments this is called a race and it happens often in the later stages. 1 person will go all-in with a pocket pair. Another will call with 2 overs. It's approx a 50/50 for either hand to win... When you take it to the river. The pair is usually a sligh favorite. But it depends on the hands.
In a ring game you will rarely see this type of hand go all in pre-flop. So you have to play every street individually. I still play my streets on a 50/50 basis. Either he hit a pair or not. You just have to look at betting, player style and opportunity to determine. But 33 isn't too strong unless you trip it.
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I don't know what they have to say
It makes no difference anyway.
Whatever it is...
I'm against it.
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stiener17
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Wilmington, DE
Posts: 3
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thank you both. 
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LeFou
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 2,361
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what accounts for the difference between 33% chance of pairing and the 45% chance that overcards beat a pp?
Is it just the (higher) straights possible with the overs?
My copy of ToP is being shippied to me as we speak, so forgive my ignorance of this basic data...
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|~|ypermegachi
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: emo-kid
Posts: 3,580
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by LeFou
what accounts for the difference between 33% chance of pairing and the 45% chance that overcards beat a pp?
Is it just the (higher) straights possible with the overs?
My copy of ToP is being shippied to me as we speak, so forgive my ignorance of this basic data...
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45% is for when you take it all the way to the river
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LeFou
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Dallas, TX
Posts: 2,361
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oh. that.
(buries head in sand)
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