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Have I got the maths of Pot Odds correct?

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MortimerJazz

06-23-2007, 10:38 AM Post subject: Have I got the maths of Pot Odds correct?

#1 (permalink)

Join Date: Jun 2006

Location: London

Posts: 36

Can someone just check this through:

Let's say blinds are 150 and 300

SB calls so there's 600 in the pot (2 players)

Flop comes up and I'm on a straight draw - I need any Ace

Other player raises it 300.

Now here's the bit that I need checking:

Using the rule of 2-4, I've got 4 cards that I need ... which is around about 10-1 chance (4 x 2 + 10 = 10%).

So therefore, to justify calling I need 3,000 to be in the pot. The pot is obviously a long way short of that (there's only 900 in there), so the correct decision is to fold.

Is that the correct way to work out pot odds?

Thanks for your help,

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biondino

06-23-2007, 11:19 AM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Apr 2005

Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars

Posts: 3,170

If you have a draw which an ace will complete, a 9 will also complete it, so that's 8 outs. Also, if, say, you have KQ (and the board is JT3), then you are likely to have further outs as either a K or a Q will give you top pair (although these may be dirty as they may well give the villain, who we assume has a J or a T, 2 pair).

So, best case scenario is that you have 14 clean outs. This is about 30%, and you are being asked to contribute 25% to the pot, so it's a good call. However, you can argue that a better move is actually to push here - you'd have 14 outs twice, making you a roughly 60/40 favourite, not taking fold equity (in your favour) into account.

Unfortunately, it's not possible to be sure you're getting the best case scenario, so you have to subtract outs. If the villain has QJ, then the three remaining Queens (one in his hand and two in the deck) are no longer outs for you. So we can reduce the number of outs from 14 to 11.

Secondly, if he has a better hand than one pair, then your outs are reduced still further - the overcards become nearly worthless and only the straight cards will help you. So you're back down to 8 outs.

However, the former is more likely. So you can conservatively estimate that you are likely to have roughly 10 clean outs, and play accordingly.

So, in this case, you need to put 25% into the pot but you're only getting 21%. So, other factors come into play - can you take advantage of implied odds and/or fold equity to make +EV decisions? To evaluate this, we need to look at other variables - I am assuming you're talking about tourney play, so the key thing here is your stack sizes. If you are both relatively deep, then a raise here may get a fold from an unconfident second pair or draw. If one or both of you are short, then you have a lot less fold equity - his bet, if it's with even a marginal made hand, may have effectively committed him. So - you have a very good hand for semi-bluffing, so you have to ask yourself - do you think a raise here will make him fold? Do you have a big enough stack to absorb the loss? If he pushes over the top, will you have good enough pot odds to call (21%, remember)?

Anyway, I know this isn't answering your question (which, incidentally, is the clearest of folds - if you really do have only 4 outs then even if he had minbet there you wouldn't be able to continue), but I hope it's useful.

Liam^

06-23-2007, 07:55 PM

#3 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: May 2007

Posts: 106

Yikes...good explanation. Short answer woulda been yes though;p

If the pot is 900, and you need to put 300 into it, your odds are 900/300= 3 to 1. With four outs, you need 11 to 1 or better. This isnt taking into account a LOT of other things though, which biondino explained a bit better.

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Have I got the maths of Pot Odds correct?

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