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Chrushinator
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10-19-2005, 06:06 AM
Post subject: harrington on pot odds
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3
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i'm currently reading harrington's first tourney installment. in the "reading the table" section, he is outlining a situation and describing an easy call based on pot odds.
i thought that i understood the fairly straightforward concept, but this confuses me.
you're holding Qs4s. flop comes JsJc9s. it's going to cost you $200 to get into a $1000 pot. he says that "the odds of drawing a flush on the next card are about 4 to 1 against, and if you stay in for 4th and 5th street, the odds drop to 2 to 1 against."
i thought that 9 / 47 is roughly 5 to 1 odds against? did dan fuck up, or am i missing something?
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DaNutsInYoEye
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: St. Louis
Posts: 1,921
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47 cards total. 9 help you, 38 don't. 38 to 9 = 4.2 to 1
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TheXianti: (Triptanes) why are you not a thinking person?
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Staresy
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10-19-2005, 02:25 PM
Post subject: Re: harrington on pot odds
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#3 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Following the Herd to 6-Max Land
Posts: 1,240
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chrushinator
he says that "the odds of drawing a flush on the next card are about 4 to 1 against, and if you stay in for 4th and 5th street, the odds drop to 2 to 1 against."
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What he means is that, your odds of hitting solely on the turn are 4:1. The 2:1 odds are you hitting your flush on either the turn or the river.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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What DaNuts said.
Probabilities-> good outcomes / (bad outcomes + good outcomes)
Odds-> bad outcomes : good outcomes
So if 9 out of 47 cards help you, then you have 9 good outcomes and 38 bad ones. So your odds (of making the flush) is 38:9 and your probability is 9/47. Its just different representations of the same thing.
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Pelion
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10-19-2005, 05:55 PM
Post subject: Re: harrington on pot odds
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#5 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chrushinator
i thought that 9 / 47 is roughly 5 to 1 odds against? did dan fuck up, or am i missing something?
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i think you are confusing the chance to make the hand with the odds against making a hand.
there is a 1 in 5 chance of making the hand by the next card. so every time you play this situation 1 time will make a flush and 4 times will not (total = 1 + 4 = 5).
this means the odds are 4 to 1 against
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