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Hands That you Want to Pay Off for Long Term +EV

  
 
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journey075
Old 12-11-2005, 08:39 PM     Post subject: Hands That you Want to Pay Off for Long Term +EV #1 (permalink)  
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its generally accepted that set over set is just life. what about the following though:

full house over full house (even if you have the lowest boat possible)

flopped flush over flopped flush (how low does it have to be for you to find folds, ive been ridiculously negative with flushes over the past month)

top 2 vs bottom set (pay off or slow down?)

turned/rivered flush vs higher rivered flush (i can slow down with lower flushes here, its easier than folding a flopped flush. however, how low does it have to be for you to consider a fold. 4th nuts? 5th nuts?)

sucker straights vs heavy action on flop (find fold?)

if i forgot anything, feel free to make suggestions.
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Sykedupp
Old 12-12-2005, 01:40 AM #2 (permalink)  
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AA on a 55592 board, paying off donks K5 every time :P


-Chris
Quote:
Originally Posted by soupie
That is the beauty of poker, it doesnt matter how they play, you can always devise the perfect defense and counterpunch hard.
 
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bigred
Old 12-12-2005, 02:48 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sykedupp
AA on a 55592 board, paying off donks K5 every time :P


-Chris
Bad beats in another forum Chris. Besides, what would supie say about that?

This is a great question journey and something I've pondered many times. I'm not sure about many cases but I can voice my opinion and others I've consulted in the past with a few.

Flush over flush. I think there is an obvious weighting of your flush strength combined with your read and weighted range of what your opponent has. There are obvious situations where you're playing up against a donk or a good player. A donk may call you to the river chasing a 4 to the flush with the ace or king. Another player may be slowplaying the A high flush. It's obviously a circumstancial situation. I think you should weight your decision in the following manner:

A * strength of flush > Op's avg showdown strength * Op's read on you

A is your choice of weight to apply to your hand based on its distance from the nuts. Baiscally, this could equate to a single variable, say "relative strength of flush" which would be your weighted flush strength. This tends to be the easy part.

The difficult part is determining the right part of the equation. What has your op been showing down? What has your op been showing down against you?

Based on the values you give to your hand strength and the values you predict for your op, I think you should be able to find when showing down a low flush is +EV and when it is -EV, when your value > op's value.

I want to emphasize that this should be the consideratioin for a headsup situation. The equation is exponentially more difficult to predict with multiple ops but you can usually assume someone has the nuts or close to it which results in a -EV situation. I think this same reasoning can be applied to most of the other situations.
LOL OPERATIONS
 
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TalentedTom
Old 12-12-2005, 03:55 AM #4 (permalink)  
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TPTK to overpair
Eg AQ on Q72 board vs AA/KK = gg
trips vs trips = gg

Vs tight players, however, you can fold any hand which is not the nuts, against mr.tight i can safley fold TPTK/2 pair/low flush/bottom trips.
Tom.S
 
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journey075
Old 12-12-2005, 07:25 AM #5 (permalink)  
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basically im asking for hands that make more long term sense to pay off better hands than to lessen aggression on.
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Vrax
Old 12-12-2005, 11:33 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Assuming 100bb stacks:

In brackets are potential hands that will pay off YOU.

Preflop:
KK vs AA (AK, QQ, AQ, JJ..)

Of course the hand must be made from BOTH cards (sets are obvious, but in straights its important)

Flop:
- Set over set (2 pair, overpair, bottom set, missed AI semibluff draw)
- King high flush vs Ace high flush (sets, straights, lower flushes)
- Trips with top kicker vs low boat on paired flop (trips with lower kicker)

ie: me AK, opp 33, flop AA3, he takes my stack, I take the stack of lower kickers than mine.

- Low end straight vs nut straight (sets, 2pairs, draws)

I have 98 in unraised pot, TJQ flop, passively played AK can take my stack, I pwn rest of'em - draws, JT'ish hands, sets drawing to boat, flush draws.

Turn/river - paired board
- Full vs better full/quads (low full, trips, donkey with overpair)

Turn/river - 3-flushed, coordinated board
- K/Q hi flush pays off A-hi flush (lower flushes from s00ted donkeys, straights)

Double paired board:

Well, it depends on rank of pairs, ie. on a poard QQKK2, pocket deuces will lose more often than not facing an action, because Q and K are "playable zone" cards, QQ/KKor single king in hand I'd ofcourse play for stacks.

QQKKA - single queen wins small pot or loses big one, single king can be paid off by queen (but I wouldnt play for stacks here having single king).

AK, AA and above plays for stacks here (unless you are H@LLINGGOL and you play with Rekrul )

For the double paired board I'm not sure...too little experience...

That are situations where I play for stacks, what are other situations? Suggestions?
"How could I call that bet? How could you MAKE that bet? It's poker not solitaire. " - that Gus Bronson guy
 
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