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Bugeye
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04-06-2006, 12:50 AM
Post subject: Hand Strength Question: AKs vs Pairs
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 25
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I have a question that’s really been bugging me. If I look at the typical hand rankings and groupings, such as those found here:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/essays_...ps_0_to_2.html
and here:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/essays_...ps_3_to_4.html
it is clear that AK-suited is considered by Sklansky and everyone else as the fifth most powerful starting hand you can have.
But then, when I run it heads-up 50,000 times or more against a much weaker pair (e.g., 88) on the Cambridge poker hand analyzer (found here: http://poker-odds.flopturnriver.com/) it wins slightly less than half the time (47.6% vs. 52.4%).
In fact it loses to all pocket pairs down to 33. Only 22 loses (statistically-speaking) to AKs.
What am I doing/calculating wrong? Why is 88 a group 4 hand if it beats AKs? Per Sklansky, et al, 88 is only the seventeenth most powerful hand out of the 169 possible pocket cards you can be dealt. If so, then why does it beat AKs heads up?
I’m obviously doing something wrong, but I don’t understand what.
Help!
-Mark
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andy-akb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maine
Posts: 1,836
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The difference between a statistical analysis and actually playing the hand is that nobody is going to fold in your strictly mathematical approach, and opponents will often fold small pocket pairs when AK c-bets the flop.
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Darby
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Straight
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 209
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Also, if you have 22 and an opponent goes all in, unless he flashes you AK, you have to be afraid he has 88 and has you crushed, where as with AK, unless he has AA or KK, you are at worst a coinflip, and at best, have him dominated if he holds AQ or worse.
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TLR
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Moderator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 5,007
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The reason AK is considered stronger then 88 is because AK is dominated by 2 hands - AA and KK, it is a conflip (more or less) to 11 other hands (all other PP) and is ahead of all the others.
88 is dominated by 6 hands (AA-99), is a coinflip to any 2 unpaired cards 9 and up.
So against a random hand you are better off holding AK then 88
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sejje
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 883
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This is correct, bugeye. Small pairs beat overcards heads up.
AK plays better than small pairs though. You can play it fast and hard and come out break even or so, even if you suck. Try playing small pairs that way, and you're going to bomb it.
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chardrian
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I rarely,if ever, get pms
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 4,524
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I'll toot my own horn a bit and direct you to this post.
http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...=274339#274339
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Xanadu
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Full House
Join Date: May 2005
Location: st. paul, MO
Posts: 966
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Another big reason AKs is so much better than small and med. pairs is that many pots are not heads up. Put it up with 88 against 2 other random hands, or even 2 other top 25% hands, and it will be much better than heads up. And like the others said, AKs is much easier to play postflop.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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The sklansky chart (and others) isn't based on what hand beats what. Its based on what hand DOMINATES what.
AK dominates many many hands (namely A2-AQ and K2-KQ) and is only dominated by two hands (namely AA and KK)
22 even though statistically a winner against AKo is dominated by many many hands (namely 33-AA) and dominates very few hands (namely 23-2A)
The chart orders hands by how many hands dominate them.
There are three types of domination.
1) 70%/30% domination occurs when a hand shares a card of the same rank with a lesser hand like AK and AQ. AK dominates AQ because the AQ player must rely on help from only a Q or cards for a straight in order to win. Another type of 70/30 domination occurs when a pocket pair shares its rank with or is higher than the kicker card of another hand, as in 77 and A7 or 77 and A5. In the second case the player with A5 much catch an A, two 5s or an A and a 5 to crack the sevens.
2) 80%/20% domination occurs when a pocket pair's rank is higher than both cards in the other players hand, as in AA vs KK or 88 vs 76.
3) 93%/7% domination is the worst kind, when a pocket pair is of the same rank as the higher card in the opposing hand. The most popular example is AA vs AK, but this can also happen with JJ vs JT. This domination is so bad because the dominated hand basically has to catch trips to win.
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