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hand combination exercise (long, multiple hands)

  
 
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revolvingiris
Old 09-14-2009, 06:00 AM     Post subject: hand combination exercise (long, multiple hands) #1 (permalink)  
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revolvingiris
OK I REALLY need to get this hand combinations thing down. I know its really going to help my game a ton

so below are some hands I am using for the exercise.

Feel free to speak up about anything wrong with any of the hands. If you see a leaky play, say so!

HAND 1

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) -

Poker-Stars

Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t1500)
Hero (SB) (t1500)
BB (t1500)
UTG (t1500)
UTG+1 (t1500)
MP1 (t1500)
MP2 (t1500)
MP3 (t1500)
CO (t1500)

Hero's M: 50.00

Preflop: Hero is SB with J, A
3 folds, MP2 calls t20, 1 fold, CO calls t20,

1 fold, Hero calls t10, BB checks

Flop: (t80) A, 7, 4 (4 players)
Hero bets t60, 1 fold, MP2 raises to t180, 1 fold, Hero calls t120

Turn: (t440) 6

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets t1300 (All-In), Hero calls t1300 (All-In)

River: (t3040) Q

(2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t3040


Ok on the flop I have villain on a range of A2-AT, 65, 74, 77, 44, KQ-QJs

Which is:
A2-AT = 52 combos
65 = 16
74 = 6
77 = 6
44 = 6
KQ-QJcc = 2

total flop combos = 88

After the turn shove:
A7-AT = 29
74 = 6
77 = 6
44 = 6

Total turn combos = 47

I am ahead of A8-AT. so I am ahead of 24 combos of hands

24/47= 51% I win and my odds are 49%. So this would be a very marginal +EV call.

HAND 2

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (9 handed) -

Poker-Stars

Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP3) (t1430)
CO (t1535)
Button (t3890)
SB (t1345)
BB (t2610)
UTG (t1405)
UTG+1 (t1155)
MP1 (t1595)
MP2 (t1515)

Hero's M: 9.53

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 8, 8
1 fold, UTG+1 bets t300, MP1 calls t300, 1 fold, Hero raises to t1430 (All-In),

5 folds, MP1 calls t1130

Flop: (t3310) 7, J, 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t3310) A

(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t3310) J

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t3310


I thought I would do a basic AI pf since this happens a ton in tourneys. I don't have a ton of FE against

villain but well see if I have any at all.

IMO villains range is 22+ AT+ KQ and sometimes QJ, KT
22+ = 77
AT+ = 64
QJ (50%) = 8
KT (50%) = 8

total combos = 157

I think villain will fold QJ and KT

so 157-141/157 = 10% so there is a TINY bit of FE there.


HAND 3

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 12 Tournament, 50/100 Blinds (9 handed) -

Poker-Stars

Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t2900)
UTG (t2770)
Hero (UTG+1) (t1345)
MP1 (t1925)
MP2 (t2790)
MP3 (t2115)
CO (t2710)
Button (t2100)
SB (t2905)

Hero's M: 8.97

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with 10, 10
UTG bets t200, Hero raises to t1345 (All-In), 7 folds, UTG calls t1145

Flop: (t2840) K, 9, K (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t2840) 3

(2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t2840) J

(2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t2840

Another AI pf but this time we have more FE.

Villains range is: 22+ QJs, KQ, AJ+, 98s-JTs

22+ = 77
QJs = 4
KQ = 16
AJ+ = 54
78s-JTs = 16

Total pf minraise combo = 167

I think villain will only continue with: TT+, AQ+

TT+ = 30
AQ+ = 32

64 combos

167-64/167 = 61% villain is folding.

Further more, if villain choses to call. What % of his range are we ahead of?

AQ+ = 32 combos
32/64 = 50%.

So of the 39% of times villain is calling our AI we are a dead coin flip against his calling range.

Question: Based on the math provided by Muzzard's great 3betting post. To find out how often we need a

3bet to work we take 3bet divided by pot. so in the above case 1345/1695 = 79%. So does that mean that if

we didn't have a made hand here that we can never raise AI as a bluff?



Hand 4 (final)

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 11 Tournament, 400/800 Blinds 100 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 (t19283)
MP3 (t22224)
CO (t13660)
Hero (Button) (t21979)
SB (t25521)
BB (t27458)
UTG (t30261)
UTG+1 (t18068)
MP1 (t24183)

Hero's M: 10.47

Preflop: Hero is Button with A, J
3 folds, MP2 bets t2400, 2 folds, Hero calls t2400, 2 folds

Flop: (t6900) A, 3, 3

(2 players)MP2 bets t2400, Hero calls t2400

Turn: (t11700) 5 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero checks

River: (t11700) 2 (2 players)
MP2 bets t6400, Hero calls t6400

Total pot: t24500

MP is a typical tagg and I changed my thought process a ton in this hand. So lets see if this will help

my reasoning.

PF range : 22+ AJ+ QT+ KJ+
22+ = 72
AJ+ = 33
QT+ = 28
KJ+ = 28
total combos including blockers = 161

So even though I am 46% to this range I figure I can take the pot away being in position enough times to

make up for the EV.

After the flop: Another A hits so there are only two other A s in the deck and 1 combo of 33. New combos:
22+ = 70
AJ+ = 20
QT+ = 28
KJ+ = 28
total combos = 146

Villain leads out for 1/3 pot. I have to be good here 21% of the time to make this call. Villain could

likely be c-betting with his entire range. Although, IMO I think villain would check AA and 33 almost

always in this spot so I will take them out of the range. I also think AK-AQ would make a stronger bet so

I will discount them by 50%.

going to turn combos = 136

Now when villain checks the turn I think I am ahead. AK-AJ is almost never checking here after that weak

flop bet. So I will remove their combos from my list. There is also a 5 on the board so this brings more

blockers. I chose to check back so villain could bet river and I could come over the top. Or in case

villain checks I can make a small value bet and get paid by Ax or smaller mid pairs.

Going to river combos=123

The river brings a 2 and passive villain comes out with a big bet. This 2 brings our Combo count to 121

so lets get into the math. I only need to win this river bet 26% of the time to make cEV long term.

So from our villain, what would make this bet? I don't think AK or AQ would ever take this line so I feel

comfortable leaving those out. Basically this is villains river range:

AA, 33, 55, 22, A3, A5, or bluff.

But we ruled AA and 33 out and A3 and A5 aren't in our pf raise range for villain. Looks like we have to

put AA and 33 back in...
AA= 1 possible combo
33= 1 possible combo
55= 3 possible combo
22= 3 possible combo

So really villain is representing a set or better. Total combos = 125
So how often will villain have a set 8/125 = 6.4%
Which means AJo is ahead of villain's range 93.6% of the time on this river.

Villains river range looks like this:
22, 33(1 instance), 44, 55(3 instances), 66-KK, AA (1 instance)
QT+
KJ+
(range above included blockers)

Question 2
Should I have bet the turn to narrow villains range a bit? I feel like having QT+ and KJ+ included in this range is wrong

Thank you all for taking the time to read this long post. I feel like I learned a lot and look forward to hearing responses. Sorry is this was hard to follow
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revolvingiris
Old 09-14-2009, 06:17 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Sorry it looks so weird...I was editing the post in notepad and it copied over all weird.
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revolvingiris
Old 09-17-2009, 05:19 PM #3 (permalink)  
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revolvingiris
So does anyone know if the above is correct??
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philly and the phanatics
Old 09-18-2009, 03:40 AM #4 (permalink)  
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philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough
 yo, when calculating how many combo's they have you have to take the cards that are on the flop out of the possible combos and also the cards that are in your hand too, so he can only have 2 aces instead of four, and there are only 3 pocket 7's and 3 pocket 3's (all this is hand 1)
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revolvingiris
Old 09-19-2009, 09:32 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Thanks for pointing that out philly! I missed that.
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