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ChezJ
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04-19-2005, 06:32 PM
Post subject: gutshots
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#1 (permalink)
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Full House
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 1,456
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do you chase them in NL? i know they are pretty worthless in limit unless the pot is gigantic. but NL offers all those implied odds. i saw a pretty smart player win with a gutshot the other night and it made me wonder. sorry if this is basic information but i've never read a NL HE book, just limit HE.
ChezJ
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storm75m
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: 6MAX-NL - Houston
Posts: 401
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Personally I don't waste my time chasing them, unless someone is min betting the pot. They hit so rarely, just not worth it IMO. I may chase if it's a very "concealed" draw with lots of players... but very rarely. Too many times there seems to also be 2 to a flush showing, so you have to discount one of those outs...
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Lack of Discipline and Over-Confidence... The root of all poker evil.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,602
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chase it's just a question of pot/implied odds, if you have them chase, if not not. I agree with the above that if the flush is there too... meh.
Betting/raising with the ISD, on the other hand, gives you two ways to win and boy will the dude who is callling you down with TPTK be pissed if you hit.
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alias2211
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: U, S and A!!!
Posts: 469
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by storm75m
Personally I don't waste my time chasing them, unless someone is min betting the pot. They hit so rarely, just not worth it IMO. I may chase if it's a very "concealed" draw with lots of players... but very rarely. Too many times there seems to also be 2 to a flush showing, so you have to discount one of those outs...
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Can you give a couple of examples of 'concealment' opportunities that you might use to chase the gutshot? I think I know what you mean abstractly, but an example might help me out a little.
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thestrokes
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
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I think if you are going to chase a draw, you have to check raise/reraise/bet it to further disguise your hand(even though most people wotn put you on the gut shot if you are calling and then suddenly wake up on the river they will suspect a made draw or a slow play). This will help you extract the maximum if you do make your hand, and in certain situations help you bluff him out if you miss.
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"Confidence not overconfidence"
-radashack
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by alias2211
Can you give a couple of examples of 'concealment' opportunities that you might use to chase the gutshot? I think I know what you mean abstractly, but an example might help me out a little.
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Example: You hold 97 with a board T6x. This gutshot is very disguised. People won't be likely to expect you to have it, and may well call bets even if the 8 comes.
On the other hand, if you hold 98 and the board were 65x, this is not disguised. If you bet when the 7 comes, people are likely to see the straight and fold it.
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Zangief
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 370
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I usually only like to chase gutshots in conjunction with other draws.
Flush + gutshot is nice, especially when the gutshot portion hits because it is less expected (as mentioned by others).
Overcards + gutshot and 2 pair / trips + gutshot are more dangerous.
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Demiparadigm
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Party 6 max
Posts: 1,602
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I am not sure it counts as chasing if you have trips and a gutshot.
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To win in poker you only need to be one step ahead of your opponents. Two steps may be detrimental.
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Lucid
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Straight
Join Date: Nov 2004
Posts: 142
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[quote="JeffreyGB"]
Quote:
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Originally Posted by alias2211
On the other hand, if you hold 98 and the board were 65x, this is not disguised. If you bet when the 7 comes, people are likely to see the straight and fold it.
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I think the hand you hold is decent because if the seven comes then you will have the highest possible strait and there is a decent chance that another player will have a lower strait. 23 in this case would be a much weaker hand. However, I wouldn't call much of a raise with either hand.
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Zangief
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Massachusetts, USA
Posts: 370
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Demiparadigm
I am not sure it counts as chasing if you have trips and a gutshot.
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I meant a draw to 2 pair/trips and a gutshot draw. Like if you have  :Qd: and the flop is   :Ts:. A J completes your gutshot, a 9 gives you trips, a Q gives you 2 pair. So you have 4 + 2 + 3 = 9 outs.
Of course, some of them are probably tainted.
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Bmxicle
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Vancouver
Posts: 947
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I'll occassionally chase a small bet to see the turn card for my nut gutshot, this is very important, that if you are chasing a gutshot, it be the absolute nuts. Really though i'm only doing this against fish who underbet their hands like tptk, and will call my big turn and river bets, otherwise it just isn't worth it to chase.
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lucid
Quote:
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
On the other hand, if you hold 98 and the board were 65x, this is not disguised. If you bet when the 7 comes, people are likely to see the straight and fold it.
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I think the hand you hold is decent because if the seven comes then you will have the highest possible strait and there is a decent chance that another player will have a lower strait. 23 in this case would be a much weaker hand. However, I wouldn't call much of a raise with either hand. |
He wasn't asking about value in relation to people holding straights though. He was asking for an example of a disguised vs. not disguised gutshot. That's all I was illustrating.
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alias2211
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: U, S and A!!!
Posts: 469
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
Quote:
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Originally Posted by alias2211
Can you give a couple of examples of 'concealment' opportunities that you might use to chase the gutshot? I think I know what you mean abstractly, but an example might help me out a little.
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Example: You hold 97 with a board T6x. This gutshot is very disguised. People won't be likely to expect you to have it, and may well call bets even if the 8 comes.
On the other hand, if you hold 98 and the board were 65x, this is not disguised. If you bet when the 7 comes, people are likely to see the straight and fold it. |
OK, got it. That makes sense and confirms what I thought. I'm wondering now about the general efficacy of gutshots: of course you don't hit them often, but when you do, you don't just win, you DESTROY (destack, more accurately). I guess I would have to think about this in terms of how much I'm willing to try for one vs. the potential payout.
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