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martindcx1e
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10-14-2007, 05:02 PM
Post subject: A graph to help beginners grasp shortrun vs. longrun
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Anyone else who has a good example like this please post here too. This is a graph of my full ring 10nl experience this time around. To start off with is an almost 15k hand chunk of break-even followed by a 15k hand chunk of 5BB/100. If you are down do not get discouraged. If you play good things will turn around eventually. Also, when you are on a heater do not think it is because you are a poker god. You aren't. You are just getting paid a lot or not getting outdrawn or drawing out a lot yourself. Hopefully this thread can help beginners grasp this.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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wow 35k hands at 10nl FullRing.
Maybe a graph about perseverance, or a lesson in how to not kill yourself.?
That's so sick, 14k hands of break even poker at 10nl FR. I don't think I could survive that dude. I played against you once or twice when I was making vids on FT. Didn't really notice too much.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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This is pretty much just like what my 10nl, 25nl, and 50nl experiences were like while rebuilding a BR.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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will641
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: getting my swell on
Posts: 1,610
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what are the steps in getting that graph onto a post? and how do you convert BB's into $ on the y-axis?
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Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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To go from BB's to $'s go to Options > Y-Axis > Display By Dollar. Then right-click the graph and save. Then host the image somewhere like imageshack.us. Once you upload it to their server copy the direct URL and put it inside [IMG][/IMG] tags in your post.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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this is from July 1st, 2007 through Sept 30th, 2007. i had the worst August ever. down 12 BI's in 3 weeks. you can see i was a bit "stack happy" in the first half of the graph, but got back on track. took me a month to repair the damage, but took me at least two to get off "life tilt."
but, if you play fundamentally sound, you will come back. try not to get too discouraged. btw, good idea for a thread, martin.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Dear FTR: Please resize your images when possible.
Thank you
Management
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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FWIW, im at 25k hands of 50NL so far this month, and I've made $40.
Fuck
-$10.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Dear FTR: Please resize your images when possible.
Thank you
Management
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They look fine on my 22" wide screen Acer
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Then host the image somewhere like imageshack.us. Once you upload it to their server copy the direct URL and put it inside [IMG][/IMG] tags in your post.
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They actually have link you can just copy for Forums with the {img} tags already on it. Look alittle farther down.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Chopper
btw, good idea for a thread, martin.
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thanks pal. glad to see you got off your "life tilt" 
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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Jack Sawyer
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Old School
Posts: 2,535
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I'll post mine when I reach 20K hands
*edit: LOL, I'm almost at 20K hands. Here goes
In BB
Conclusion: don't play with 20 buyins for any given level. its not enough
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My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...
Quote:
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VHS is like a book and a book is like a stack of kindles.
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Hey, I'm in a movie!
http://youtu.be/lGdnIrRKDTI
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
FWIW, im at 25k hands of 50NL so far this month, and I've made $40.
Fuck
-$10.
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i must see such a stellar graph
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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ShortTerm
[img=http://img225.imageshack.us/img225/1226/copyofcopyofarena0306givs3.th.jpg]
Long term
[img=http://img90.imageshack.us/img90/5868/copyofcopyofarena0306giql4.th.jpg]
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
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winner
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
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winner |
i need to post that 100nl short term graph after 15k hands me thinks 
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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jack, is that your time of owning $10, mega-tilt at $25 and the rebuild? nice graph?!?
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Jack Sawyer
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Old School
Posts: 2,535
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yup
sharp drop #1 is megatilt @ 25NL
sharp drop #2 is bad luck @ 25NL
hence I'm waiting until I have like 40 BI for 25NL to try again
bad luck compounds tilt which compounds bad luck, vicious fucking circle. it can obliterate all you worked 15K hands for in 15 hands 
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My dream... is to fly... over the rainbow... so high...
Quote:
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VHS is like a book and a book is like a stack of kindles.
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Hey, I'm in a movie!
http://youtu.be/lGdnIrRKDTI
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Sheetah
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 278
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Really good idea to start this, indeed.
... only somehow looking at this [censored] before and after 14k mark I get the feeling that OP missed the point a little.
Looking at the graph as a big picture it seems to me that it actually took you 14k hands to figure out what good solid ABC really is (as a bare minimum to beat those 'tards') - which is also helpful for beginners, knowing they're not the only ones going through tough periods and that there's the 'light at the end of the tunnel'.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sheetah
Looking at the graph as a big picture it seems to me that it actually took you 14k hands to figure out what good solid ABC really is
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I'm not a beginner Sheetah. I am rebuilding a bankroll. It seems like you may be missing the point cuz the point is I was playing the same throughout and got vastly different results during large chunks of hands.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Not sure this is the point of the thread, but here's proof that it can take awhile to get the hang of poker. I started my career with a 40k hand breakeven stretch at 25-100nl. And big downswings are possible for winning players (see hands 125k->133k). And there's money to be made in this game All good lessons for noobs.
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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zook
life graph yah?
god i wish i had all my DBs these days
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zook
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 3,676
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
life graph yah?
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yah
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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but any newer poster should look at zookies two HUGE downswings. or at least, i bet they felt like it at the time.
hey new guy, what would you feel like if your $500, that you spent all year grinding up on the 10NL tables, took a nose dive down to $250...in a month? would you start to question yourself? or realize it could just be a swing? this is where the introspection should come in...you should question yourself...W/O PANICKING.
zook, you lost half your roll twice. but, if we look at the graph...it was variance, or it got corrected relatively quickly.
now, those just look like bumps in the road.
nice graph, Z
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zook
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Miffed22001
life graph yah?
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yah |
over a 3rd of your graph ive lost 4k. fuck variance.
me posty graph yes?
btw, is it possible to combine PT databases into 1 master one?
fwiw also on my db which i am -2k on over 50k hands im running -1.3bbs/100. however on the most significant sample over 30k hands (others are broken down into smaller groups of 4k) my winrate is 2.5bbs/100 while all the others are negative over thoise small samples (hence why my ev graph is so bent!
Havent had a winning month since july now which is pretty gay also(subtracting rb of course)
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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double post but w/e
This is probably the best example of short term luck (17k is short term but seems like a lifetime to new players)
EV graph
[img=http://img220.imageshack.us/img220/555/copyofcopyofarena0306giix8.th.jpg]
winnings graph (lol)
[img=http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/6458/copyofcopyofarena0306gibh8.th.jpg]
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euphoricism
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Your place or my place
Posts: 3,610
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Dear FTR: Please resize your images when possible.
Thank you
Management
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They look fine on my 22" wide screen Acer |
Its not so much the size of the picture as the size of the files. Adds up pretty quick.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Dear FTR: Please resize your images when possible.
Thank you
Management
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They look fine on my 22" wide screen Acer |
Its not so much the size of the picture as the size of the files. Adds up pretty quick. |
mine weighs in at a trim 15kb
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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Sheetah
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 278
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by martindcx1e
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sheetah
Looking at the graph as a big picture it seems to me that it actually took you 14k hands to figure out what good solid ABC really is
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I'm not a beginner Sheetah. I am rebuilding a bankroll. It seems like you may be missing the point cuz the point is I was playing the same throughout and got vastly different results during large chunks of hands. |
Sorry, didn't want to be mean or something. I know you're not n00b and that you used to play NL100. Somehow I got the idea that "this time arround" was "last year" or "2 yrs ago" or so.
And wow, 14k hands of break even at NL10? Either the variance pawned you or games really got tougher - not to the point of being not beatable (obv) but more aggressive in nature a.k.a. swing-ier (and probably both).
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ChrisTheFish
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Huddersfield, England
Posts: 492
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Awesome thread, i'm up $27 after 6500 hands at PARTY!!!"1111! 50NL 
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grnydrowave2
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Showin' mah Pokemans
Posts: 651
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In my last 21k hands, I have a few 5k stretches where I broke even. Strangely enough, I hardly noticed them. I think I could probably shrug off a 10k dry spell, but I don't know how I would react to 25k+ hands of break-even or losing play.
We say we're not supposed to be results oriented, but that usually pertains to short term situations (such as a single hand). At what point is it appropriate stop blaming variance, and hold yourself accountable for your results? 40k hands? 100k hands? Some ungodly number of hands that none of us will ever play?
Based on a few crazy graphs I've seen, I think the short-term might be too long.
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<SrslySirius> Hal Lubarsky, my nemesis.
<SaltLick> are you seriously losing to a blind guy
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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i posted my 40k losing streak. I ran bad, played bad then just went off the rails
Its when it starts to look like a winrate over a large period that you get worried.
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Chopper
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: St. Louis, MO
Posts: 4,255
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from what i hear, you are not supposed to be at any level long enough to get a "realistic" winrate. so, we use small samples like 10k and 20k. some of us can show 100k+, but those usually contain multiple levels.
i hear that 100k is starting to approach a "realistic" winrate, but i think someone previously mentioned that even proven winners can run bad over 100k. but, i have yet to hear anyone admit to it.
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LHE is a game where your skill keeps you breakeven until you hit your rush of random BS.
Nothing beats flopping quads while dropping a duece!
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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a lot of the ballers especially lhe players admit to 40k break even streaks, ive seen a lhe 1000bbs downswing (wtf?)
At microstakes sure you shouldnt play more than 25k or so hands before moving up because you should be killing it (not so much though i freely admit thesedays)
But below 100nl you shouldnt know your winrate, only reall yat 200nl do you have to grind about 30k+ hands to make the next natural br jump to 2/4nl
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Robb
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 3,072
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Thanks, I'm a noob w/ 20k hands at $.10/.25. I was killing $.05/.10, and I'm doing okay up a level. Up $200 over last few weeks. I lost a bunch a few months ago, though, and I'm not positive for my career, yet. These graphs and discussions are helping. Don't go on tilt when you run bad. Don't get to thinking you're Doyle win you win 25 BB/100 for a few hundred hands. Thanks, guys. Good thread.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Sheetah
Sorry, didn't want to be mean or something. I know you're not n00b and that you used to play NL100. Somehow I got the idea that "this time arround" was "last year" or "2 yrs ago" or so.
And wow, 14k hands of break even at NL10? Either the variance pawned you or games really got tougher - not to the point of being not beatable (obv) but more aggressive in nature a.k.a. swing-ier (and probably both).
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no worries sheetah. ya, i haven't been gone long enough to have to re-learn everything. and yes, it was just variance. i mean, i was losing money overall on my sets (including losing overall in my set vs. overpair encounters), all pairs except for AA & JJ were losers, i had KK vs. AA 6 times, and i was losing overall in my AA vs. KK encounters which happened only 3 times. pretty disgusting.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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Sheetah
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Flush
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 278
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Sick! 14k hands!? Sick!
I've been on 2 or 3k stretches like the above occasionally, but given how little time I can dedicate to poker (I HAVE LIFE YO) 14k is almost a month for me.
Good thing you didn't lost your mind but kept playing - which makes this victory even sweeter
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ChrisTheFish
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Huddersfield, England
Posts: 492
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Yo, after 10,500 hands at PARTY 50NL, i'm down 1$.
Fuck poker.
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ChrisTheFish
Yo, after 10,500 hands at PARTY 50NL, i'm down 1$.
Fuck poker.
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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Kevintensity
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: HTOWN, TN
Posts: 8
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hey martin, how did you get that graph? I cant figure it out for the life of me
i've got poker tracker, which tabs/settings do you use?
thanks for any help...
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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poker grapher
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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kevin, you use a separate graphing program. you can get it here:
http://overcards.com/wiki/moin.cgi/PokerGrapher
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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biondino
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2005
Location: Putney, UK; Full Tilt,Mansion; $50 NL and PL; $13 and $16 SNGs at Stars
Posts: 3,170
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This is a little revisionist, as it takes a chunk out of the middle of my graph, but here's 62k hands of breakeven poker (62k hands is pretty much 6 months for me, if that puts it in perspective):
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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LOL wtf that is sick!
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
Quote:
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Originally Posted by euphoricism
Dear FTR: Please resize your images when possible.
Thank you
Management
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They look fine on my 22" wide screen Acer |
LOLACERAMENTS
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Miffed22001
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!
Posts: 8,181
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by biondino
This is a little revisionist, as it takes a chunk out of the middle of my graph, but here's 62k hands of breakeven poker (62k hands is pretty much 6 months for me, if that puts it in perspective):
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this looks horribly like a winrate and not a 'running bad/breakeven graph'
do we think we're beating the games? Im also guessing its crypto...ugh gg decent games
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Halv
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pro crastinator
4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: No hindsight for the blind.
Posts: 1,842
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This thread should have waited until the end of december, I bet there'd be some sweet yearly graphs. I'll post my 350k hands or so later, HM is busy importing a few million observed hands.
Zook, can you post a graph in BBs as well ktx.
Oh and the pics look fine on my 30" HP
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mrhappy333
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Hartford, CT
Posts: 1,078
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I'll post this to help stop anyone from playing Drunk.
  
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martindcx1e
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 3,614
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wow happy that makes me cry
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Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mrhappy333
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Judging by that graph, it should only take you 272 years to get back to even.
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