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Good spot for a delayed C-bet?

  
 
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-25-2009, 04:52 PM     Post subject: Good spot for a delayed C-bet? #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain was 38/6 over 15 hands thus far.

He nearly INSTA-checked this flop, so I figure he has nothing 90% of the time.

Given this information, my question is: Would it be better not to c-bet, but instead delay betting to the turn so that hopefully the turn will improve his hand or have him continue with a mid-pair type holding so I can squeeze more value out of my KK? Like if he holds QJo or something like that, he won't be calling this flop. But if the turn brings a K, Q, J or T, there is a greater chance I will be able to induce a call from a weaker hand, and still be confident that I am ahead.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

CO ($2.99)
Hero (Button) ($5)
SB ($5.97)
BB ($1.87)
UTG ($13.07)
MP1 ($6.13)
MP2 ($18.16)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K, K
2 folds, MP2 calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero bets $0.25, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.57) 4, 4, A (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.35, 1 fold

Total pot: $0.57 | Rake: $0
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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kmind
Old 02-25-2009, 05:29 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 If you figure he has something not worth continuing 90% of the time, and I imagine the other 10% being something that beats your hand?, we should not be betting for value. In this example, I check the flop back and fire turn. There are times, of course, when we have a PP and flop an over yet we can still value bet.
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Parasurama
Old 02-25-2009, 06:53 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Yes, this is a great example of how we should be thinking about how many streets of value to get. With KK on this board, we're looking at 1-2, probably closer to 2. If we bet the flop, he'll fold a lot right there, and shut down with weaker hands to more bets. If we bet the turn (and probably river as well) instead, he's likely to call down and give us our 2 streets with middling pocket pairs and hands that improve but not enough.
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 05:55 AM #4 (permalink)  
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It's good to see you thought of delay c-betting this flop instead of saying "I suck with KK" lol.

Yes, delay c-betting this is pretty much the nut line to take here. Like you said he's going to have nothing 90% of the time, so why make him fold it out now? Check it back, since there aren't any uglier cards in the deck than the Ace thats already on the board.

Let his 90% "catch up" and take his happy ass to value town.
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POKEMONS
Old 02-27-2009, 06:01 AM #5 (permalink)  

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Just a question to anyone but do you really think he's folding 55-TT to a cbet on this board? I just say this because I think if we lose value if we check the flop and the turn comes out a Q/J and he check-folds his worse pocket pairs.
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 06:04 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by POKEMONS
Just a question to anyone but do you really think he's folding 55-TT to a cbet on this board? I just say this because I think if we lose value if we check the flop and the turn comes out a Q/J and he check-folds his worse pocket pairs.
To put it bluntly: Yes

Reason being, most people aren't going to see our bet as a c-bet. They see it as "ZOMGhebetPFandnowhesbettingandtheAcehitIbetterfol d"

They don't care that we could have missed overs. They care that there hand isn't look so pretty anymore.
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Micro2Macro
Old 02-27-2009, 06:05 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 Yeah I realize that I just turned my hand into a bluff here.

Okay now let's say we decide to check behind planning to bet the turn when checked to. The turn comes off as brick and our opponent leads...

Let's assume it's the same opponent and we don't have much history on him other than he's on target for an overall loose V$IP. Should we call the donked turn? If we do how about if he donks both turn and river? If I had to guess, depending on the bet sizing, perhaps we should look him up since we have a really good bluff catcher. What do you guys think?
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

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Old 02-27-2009, 06:13 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by POKEMONS
Just a question to anyone but do you really think he's folding 55-TT to a cbet on this board? I just say this because I think if we lose value if we check the flop and the turn comes out a Q/J and he check-folds his worse pocket pairs.
yes, but we blow hands like QJ out of the pot
but if he turns a queen or a jack he might say "he doesn't have the ace he didn't bet the flop" and call

the good thing about a board like this is that almost no hands that call a raise have a draw here
so any hand that didn't hit this flop is drawing to runner runner or two outs so we don't need to be worried about protecting our hand
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POKEMONS
Old 02-27-2009, 06:20 AM #9 (permalink)  

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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
Originally Posted by POKEMONS
Just a question to anyone but do you really think he's folding 55-TT to a cbet on this board? I just say this because I think if we lose value if we check the flop and the turn comes out a Q/J and he check-folds his worse pocket pairs.
yes, but we blow hands like QJ out of the pot
but if he turns a queen or a jack he might say "he doesn't have the ace he didn't bet the flop" and call

the good thing about a board like this is that almost no hands that call a raise have a draw here
so any hand that didn't hit this flop is drawing to runner runner or two outs so we don't need to be worried about protecting our hand
Alright I think I'm on page now.
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dranger7070
Old 02-27-2009, 06:21 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
Yeah I realize that I just turned my hand into a bluff here.

Okay now let's say we decide to check behind planning to bet the turn when checked to. The turn comes off as brick and our opponent leads...

Let's assume it's the same opponent and we don't have much history on him other than he's on target for an overall loose V$IP. Should we call the donked turn? If we do how about if he donks both turn and river? If I had to guess, depending on the bet sizing, perhaps we should look him up since we have a really good bluff catcher. What do you guys think?
I agree with calling the turn, but I think raising the river would be a good line to take, too. Especially if the board comes off something like:

A44QJ

and we raise when the J hits. He's never going to fold the Q to this line an he will probably call with a lot of strong KQ/QJ/QT hands.
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sil693
Old 02-27-2009, 10:57 AM #11 (permalink)  
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i think raising on the river is a bad idea as i dont think he will call with it with his Qx, unless he hits turn + river cards of course. i think we should flat turn if he bets then call a river bet / bet if he checks to us.
 
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Old 02-27-2009, 05:21 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Another thing to consider is that what we really don't want is to be put to a tough decision on the flop. If he DOES see it as a cbet and raises us with air we'll be hard-pressed to call his raise. Even if we call, can we call a turn barrel knowing that he may or may not shove the river?

Why do we want to be in tough spots like this? Instead we can let him try to bluff us off on the turn and we can just call a turn bet and evaluate the river.
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Micro2Macro
Old 03-01-2009, 02:51 AM #13 (permalink)  
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 iopq: I don't think a c/r bluff from a player who appears fairly loose passive is going to happen much but good point considering we end up in a tough spot if this does happen and with no reads we're pretty much clueless as to where we are at.



Okay I want to add a little extra discussion-initiating piece to this thread. Suppose We're holding QQ. Same plan? How about JJ, same plan? Now TT, 99 - 22.

My question is, at what point in our range of 22-KK on this particular flop do we start c-betting on the flop as opposed ot checking behind?
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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Parasurama
Old 03-01-2009, 06:07 AM #14 (permalink)  
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22-88 I would probably cbet against a 38/6, 99-KK delayed c-bet. His PF limp-calling range answers this question imo.
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