www.flopturnriver.com

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Already Registered? Username: Password: Remember Forgot Password
Tweet

Good implied odds play?

LinkBack

Thread Tools

Display Modes

DoanDiggy

12-03-2008, 11:31 AM Post subject: Good implied odds play?

#1 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Oct 2008

Posts: 536

I made what could be deemed some pretty loose calls on this hand, but I'm pretty sure the implied odds justified it. Comments?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($9.39)
UTG ($11)
UTG+1 ($5.69)
MP1 ($1.85)
MP2 ($21.40)
MP3 ($1.93)
Hero (CO) ($18.35)
Button ($1.93)
SB ($1.70)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A

, 5

2 folds, MP1 calls $0.05, MP2 calls $0.05, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.05, 2 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($0.22) K

, 3

, 7

(4 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP2 bets $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.82) 2

(3 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.45, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $1.35, Hero calls $0.90

River (in white): ($3.52) 10h (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $2, MP2 calls $2

Total pot: $7.52 | Rake: $0.35

The flop call was basically a float, and it could certainly be argued that it was a poor call. I'm interested in comments on this call, too, of course. After it checked to me on the turn, I'm thinking the float was the right play, and I've picked up more outs, so I go ahead and try to take the pot down right there. When MP2 raises me, I'm pretty sure he has a hand, so that's where it gets interesting.

My pot-odds equity on the turn call is 26%. I have at least 10 outs to the river (22%: vs a flopped set), more likely at least 12 (26%: vs two pair), and maybe 15 (33%: vs a pair of Ks).

If I hit the flush or straight on the river and can extract at least $2 more, I can add this to $3.52 going to the river, right? Thus my implied odds equity is calculated as .9 into 5.52, meaning I only need 16% to make this always a profitable call. I figure a flopped set almost has to make this call and maybe 2 pair as well. Ks might not, but I'm 33% against Ks, so I don't really need the implied odds there. Am I on the right track?

As long as my plan is to check behind or call a small bet on an A, Kh, or 2h river; bet/raise up to at least $2 on any other heart or 4; and check/fold any other card, I think I'm making money on this play. Am I right that this was good play, or was it too loose of a call?

Play for FREE and practice your game at...

Join the FTR Poker Forum to disable these banners and start posting!

AFchung

12-03-2008, 04:26 PM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2008

Location: UCLA

Posts: 1,179

Pre: I might've liked a raise better since we're in CO and there's dead money. Limping behind is fine

Flop: I like the call here. Folding the nut flush draw is weak. This is the flop you were hoping for when you made the preflop call

Turn: I would've checked here and taken a free card. Villain probably did not lead out into 2 other people with air, and a 2 of clubs is not going to make him fold anything in his range

River: Pot it. At 5NL if i have a read that the villain is a calling station or just overall bad (40/5 etc), I'll overbet or shove. You'll be so surprised at how people cannot let go of two pair or TPGK

http://afchung.blogspot.com/

kmind

12-03-2008, 04:40 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Oct 2006

Location: Not Giving In

Posts: 4,240

Turn play isn't atrocious but I'd check behind now that we have a hidden draw + our original FD that someone else might be drawing to

mieczkowusc

12-03-2008, 04:58 PM

#4 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Sep 2008

Location: Lurking in BC or IRC

Posts: 225

The problem with implied odds with flushes is that people are much more likely to lay hands down against them, versus having a set against an overpair.

But if you knew that the villain was going to pay you off on the river if you hit, then I think you have the math right. At least it seems that way to me.

vclortho

12-04-2008, 04:47 AM

#5 (permalink)

Join Date: Nov 2008

Posts: 22

Flop: Raise, you got what you came for.

Turn: I'd defo have checked. The 2c most likely didn't do anything for any other hand, so it's safe to get the free card.

Overall, not much wrong here imho

DoanDiggy

12-04-2008, 05:58 AM

#6 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Oct 2008

Posts: 536

Thanks for all the comments and suggestions. Like I said, the reason that I bet the turn was that I felt like I was floating him on the flop, so after the turn checked to me, I thought a bet was in order. Looking at AFchung's commentthat he probably didn't lead out without a decent hand (at least most of the time), I have to agree that a check behind might have been the better play.

Then again, I had been playing aggressively postflop, floating or raising a decent amount of bets. The line I took here is one that I could take with air (except that I would have folded to the turn raise, of course), with a good hand, or with a draw, and I really like to make it difficult for an opponent to read me (not that they really will at these stakes, but meh, practice doesn't hurt). In general, I think a lot of draws would be expected to check behind, so my bet might look like a pair of kings. So I think there is a lot of merit in bet/calling the turn as I did here, but then my river bet should be bigger, at least $3 in this instance, because my hand is pretty nicely disguised by this point.

I don't like a raise on the flop. We have a nice draw to the flush, but we only have one overcard and it might not even be an out. If we get reraised, we have to fold, and I hate to do that. Our flat call of a pot-sized bet looks just as strong as a raise in my opinion. Besides, a raise will mostly only get called or reraised by a strong hand, whereas a call can keep in a lot of weak flush draws or improvable bottom pairs that could pay me off down the line if I do hit my flush. If I miss my draw on the turn, a float bet there folds out a lot of weak pairs, so I might as well peel another card before showing a lot of strength. Besides, flat calling invites other players to come along and give me even better pot odds to make the call.

Bonus question: What did MP2 have?

ChrisBCritter

12-04-2008, 04:34 PM

#7 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2005

Location: Falmouth, ME

Posts: 781

I almost was going to say push over the turn check/raise with your extra straight outs. Then I noticed the effective stack was almost 400BBs!!!

I'd like a raise PF in position with this hand, Flop is fine, turn is fine, and an overbet or at least pot-size bet on the river is required here when you are deep!!! GET PAID when you hit your draw, that's why you called on the other streets, he won't lay it down!

Hey knucklehead! Bonk!

Latest Poker News
KoRnholio	05-26-2012, 03:08 PM Australia Legalized Online Poker coming up in next 6 to 12 Months
According to an email sent out by Mark Bryan, a gaming analyst at Merrill Lynch, the Australian government plans to legalize online poker sometime in the next six to 12 months. This move will coincide ... more at Poker Blogs »

« Previous Thread | Next Thread »

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Email this Page
Display Modes
Linear Mode Switch to Hybrid Mode Switch to Threaded Mode

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Trackbacks are On Pingbacks are On Refbacks are On Forum Rules

All times are GMT. The time now is 07:31 PM.

Play Texas Holdem Online, Online Texas Holdem Strategy, & Poker Forum

This is not a gambling website.

Poker Forum

Over 1,246,000 Posts!

Poker Forum

Beginners Circle

Good implied odds play?

Play for FREE and practice your game at...