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Global Hand Outcome Probability
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Manomanman
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10-16-2004, 12:46 AM
Post subject: Global Hand Outcome Probability
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 122
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http://www.pokerstove.com/quad-jacks.txt
Does anybody literally play this way (utilize game theory to put your opponent on a hand, and then rapidly calculate your global probability of winning the hand based on the range of a hand he could be playing).
I supposed one example would be a loose aggressive opponent. The range of hands you put him on is everything, and you assume that you're ahead every time you connect with the flop in a somewhat meaningful way.
I don't think about my opponents' hands, rather my opponent's hand. After reading this article, I'm thinking about reconceptualizing the way I play through heads-up pots. (Instead of just getting an implicit feel for whether I'm behind, I'm going to consciously calculate the hand outcome based on my opponent's hand range.)
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LugNutz
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Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 25
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Quote:
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(Instead of just getting an implicit feel for whether I'm behind, I'm going to consciously calculate the hand outcome based on my opponent's hand range.)
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I have much to learn because just thinking about that made my head hurt 
Lug
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24 beers in a case, 24 hours in a day... coincidence?
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dalecooper
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 3,107
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I always do that, and I would have to think most good poker players do it at least to some extent. You aren't making money if you fold every time the board's a little scary (i.e. three suiteds and you don't have the flush; board pairs or hits trips and you don't have the third or fourth, but do have another pair; three to a straight; and so forth). There are good reasons to fear these boards of course, but you can't be over-cautious and always fold against someone betting on a scary board. This is more true the smaller the field is. i.e. you're in heads-up, the flop comes A23, and you hold an A. What are the odds your opponent flopped the straight? You can't be too afraid.
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Manomanman
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Straight
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 122
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I'm always thinking "instinctually" about my opponent's hand. When scary flops come down and my opponent is betting into me, my job is usually not to think "globally" about his hand range, rather to think about his playing style (is he tight vs. loose, and passive vs. aggressive).
This author is advocating calculating a mathematical probability of success or failure based on your estimation of your opponent's play, and then your +/- EV is based on that global % (I'm getting a return of .50 on the dollar based on his entire hand range, so I should fold), rather than specific "instinct" (I have a 30% chance to suck him out if has the A, and I don't give him credit for it, and he'll go nuclear on the river if the club falls, so I call). These global EV's are distinct, because if you are at or above 50%, you continue playing. If you are ever very far below 50%, you fold outright.
This concept is distinct from pot odds/implied odds. If you can see your opponent's hand and know that you are behind and you get a cheap card (pot committed) you call because you are getting correct odds to stay.
If you are "globally" behind, you fold because the entire range of hands he is on puts you in a -EV situation.
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