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ebohatch
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09-26-2009, 01:14 PM
Post subject: genral Question on on odds
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Illinois, USA
Posts: 6
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Is there any info on the success rate of winning the hand based on pot odds.
I am logically oriented (computer guy) and I don't see how good pot odds justify calling to make a hand.
From what I have read from numerous poker books (Brunson, Slansky, Cloutier, Etc.) and what I comprehend is that they have made and lost fortunes. We haven't heard much from Moneymaker lately and he was a huge pot odds proponent.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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wut?
Just google it, or read the beginners digest... you obviously don't know what pot odds means.
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ebohatch
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Illinois, USA
Posts: 6
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This is the description:
"When someone says they "had pot odds to call", they mean that the pot odds were favorable compared to the chance their hand would improve. For instance, using the same 1:10 pot odds, if you had a flush draw then you would typically have 9: 46 or 1:5.1 odds. Since these are better than the odds the pot is offering, you have pot odds to call. "
Now reread my question!
Are there any statistics showing the success rate of calling with favorable pot odds?
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AdamThePirate
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Manchester
Posts: 142
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the success rate of what? taking the guys money, or completing your flush? If it's the latter then refer to pot odds, you need 4:1 odds to make this call.
You need 4:1, because statistically, you will make your flush 20% of the time.
If you are referring to when you hit your flush, will you take the guys entire stack, that's called Implied Odds, and depends a lot on your opponents attributes.
Read here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pot_odds
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Pot odds don't refer to how often you "hit", or in other words make your hand. Pot odds simply refer to the amount of the pot you will be representing. If the pot is $100 and villain bets $100, then in order for you to continue you must at least call the $100, thereby representing 1/3 of the pot. In this instance you will be getting 2:1 pot odds, meaning you need 1/3 or 33% equity.
Now equity refers to how often you have a better hand versus villain's range. If you have a draw, this is approximately the % of the time you will hit that draw. So if you have a flush draw on the turn, then you have 9 outs, or approximately 18% chance of winning (this is done by the rule of 2 or 4... search it). This means on average, you will make your flush approx 1 in 5 times, or 4:1 against. Therefore, in order to make continuing with the hand correct, you must either (1) put in less than 18% of hte pot, meaning you represent less of the pot than your chance of winning or (2) make enough on the river when you hit to justify the call.
So say the pot is $100, and villain bets $50. You are getting pot odds of 3:1, and you have a flush draw, so you are about 4:1 against hitting. Your chance of hitting is less than the pot odds, therefore a call is incorrect barring making money on the river. Now if you call, and hit, and make $50 on average on the river, then the call on the turn was profitable, and this is referred to as pot odds.
Okay.. So I have no idea why I typed all that out, as I suspect it didn't help, but maybe it did. Either way, the "statistics showing the success rate of calling with favorable pot odds" is a pretty bad way to pose your question. Calling with favorable pot odds, doesn't mean you are going to win this hand. It means that on average you are going to win money here, and in order for this to be correct, you must have an adequate sample size (millions of hands).
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ebohatch
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Illinois, USA
Posts: 6
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Thanks Stacks & Adam,
I will try to clarify my question.
What I am looking for is how many times (25 out of a 100, 50 out of a 100, 75 out of a 100, ETC) has a pot been won when one has favorable pot odds?
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Donkafelts
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 115
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ebohatch
Thanks Stacks & Adam,
I will try to clarify my question.
What I am looking for is how many times (25 out of a 100, 50 out of a 100, 75 out of a 100, ETC) has a pot been won when one has favorable pot odds?
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Pot odds doesn't really predict how often you will win the hand. Pot odds just tell you how often you will need to be good to continue. If someone gives you 4 to 1 odds on the river that means if you are good more than 20% of the time you call. The pot odds don't tell you your chance of winning, just how often you NEED to win in order for a call to be profitable.
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ebohatch
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Illinois, USA
Posts: 6
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My question is NOT how often one needs to win to be profitable, the question is how often one has won. I am looking for after the fact info not before.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Your question just makes no sense. "How often one has won when calling with favorable pot odds"? It depends on how often you are ahead obviously.. if I have 100% equity on the river, and am getting 4:1 pot odds, then if I call I win 100% of the time obviously. If I have 60% equity, and getting 2:1 pot odds, I win 60% of the time when I call on the river. Same if I have 60% equity and am getting 3:1 pot odds. I still win 60% of the time. Pot odds have absolutely no bearing on how often I will win. Just how often I NEED to win for the call to be profitable, and therefore me make money. If I call with less equity than the pot odds, then I lose. If I have more equity than the needed pot odds, then my call with be profitable, and I'll make money.
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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Pots being won or not and having appropiate pot odds or not are TWO INDEPENDENT EVENTS. Therefore your question is completely irrelevant, since pots being won or not has nothing to do with having favorable pot odds.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ISF
Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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In answer to your question OP, no. Poker (especially no-limit holdem) is a game where every hand is a truly unique situation, therefore compiling statistics on an in-hand situation would be a waste of time.
Furthermore, many more concepts aside from pot odds go into any decision about a hand, so it would be impossible to isolate pot odds as the absolute crux of any hand - even on the fairly rare occasions when a decision is based mostly on pot odds, there is still a large amount of speculation and conjecture as to what our equity is in relation to our pot odds.
Have a read of Stacks' post several times and find out more about anything you don't get within there, also check out FTR's IRC channel (http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...08-t67665.html).
There is a reason why no-one has ever constructed NLHE AI capable of beating anyone but the most retarded of opponents.
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TheBlueKnave
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 39
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From one computer-oriented poker n00b to another, let me try to clarify:
"Pot Odds" is semantically a profit-odds term, relative to the value of the pot and the likelihood of a winning hand. Ergo absolute statistics about "wins" is irrelevant. Pot Odds can be used to calculate the value of betting a weak hand against a small raise, or a strong hand in a similar situation, or a draw hand with lots of outs, etc. etc.
There are great stats available on the likelihood of specific hands winning, which sounds like what you are wanting. In order to make use of pot odds, you need to know your hand odds first, because that drives the pot odds equation.
Hope this helps.
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ebohatch
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Illinois, USA
Posts: 6
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WOW didn't realize I asked such a complex question.
I understand that pot odds have no bearing on how often I will win, and I am not asking how often I need to call to be profitable. I am not asking how much equity I need.
I am asking that once the hand is over how often did anyone win after calling with a favorable pot odds situation.
Very simple did one win or lose, and how often did one win over how often did one lose.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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This is becoming absurd, and probably on the brink of me locking this due to it being a waste of time. Your question makes no sense.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ebohatch
I understand that pot odds have no bearing on how often I will win
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ebohatch
I am asking that once the hand is over how often did anyone win after calling with a favorable pot odds situation.
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You're like the bible sir... Full of contradictions.
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kiwiMark
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Nu Zuland bru
Posts: 939
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Posting in a troll thread.
ebohatch: Since people have not provided answers that suit you, try asking in a different way, rather than repeating the question.
I understand that pot odds have no bearing on how often I will win
I am asking that once the hand is over how often did anyone win after calling with a favorable pot odds situation.
If you understand that pod odds have no bearing on how often you will win, why did you include that clause in your question?
So your question seems to be "How often do you guys win hands?" Is that your question, or do you want to have another go at explaining, or are you having a laugh at all of our expense as it very strongly appears.
Mark
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AdamThePirate
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Straight
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Manchester
Posts: 142
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If I add 2 and 2 together, how often will I need to find the area of a triangle?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
Take it Doyle, take it!
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kiwiMark
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Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Nu Zuland bru
Posts: 939
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Quote:
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If I add 2 and 2 together, how often will I need to find the area of a triangle?
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WOW it's not like the question is this complicated! He knows 2 and 2 has no impact on the area of a triangle. He is not asking how often he will need to find the area of a triangle. He wants to know when he adds 2 and 2 together how often will he have found the area of a triangle. duh.[/quote]
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Ztech
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Staying out of the FTR Community threads and sticking to the pokerz
Posts: 58
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by kiwiMark
Quote:
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If I add 2 and 2 together, how often will I need to find the area of a triangle?
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WOW it's not like the question is this complicated! He knows 2 and 2 has no impact on the area of a triangle. He is not asking how often he will need to find the area of a triangle. He wants to know when he adds 2 and 2 together how often will he have found the area of a triangle. duh. |
[/quote]
That is freaking awesome........+1
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ebohatch
I am asking that once the hand is over how often did anyone win after calling with a favorable pot odds situation.
Very simple did one win or lose, and how often did one win over how often did one lose.
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If you could get hold of a large PokerTracker database and run a bunch of queries on it, I'm sure you'd find the answer to your question.
However it would be a complete, utter and absolute waste of time
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TheBlueKnave
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: Seattle, WA
Posts: 39
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ash256
If you could get hold of a large PokerTracker database and run a bunch of queries on it, I'm sure you'd find the answer to your question.
However it would be a complete, utter and absolute waste of time |
And the reason it's a waste of time is not just because the number is unrelated to the semantics of "pot odds" but because people use "pot odds" to calculate the value of a bet based on hands across the full range of likelihood of winning, the answer would be some number in the middle of the full range of hand probabilities.
There's no pattern to recognize here.
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ebohatch
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Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Illinois, USA
Posts: 6
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LOCK THIS THREAD, or just erase.
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Ash256
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by TheBlueKnave
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ash256
If you could get hold of a large PokerTracker database and run a bunch of queries on it, I'm sure you'd find the answer to your question.
However it would be a complete, utter and absolute waste of time |
And the reason it's a waste of time is not just because the number is unrelated to the semantics of "pot odds" but because people use "pot odds" to calculate the value of a bet based on hands across the full range of likelihood of winning, the answer would be some number in the middle of the full range of hand probabilities.
There's no pattern to recognize here. |
For shits and giggles, I'll disagree and say that the answer would be a percentage, for example you'd win 27.36% of the time.
However that number would be no use to anyone. To use another analogy, it'd be like analysing what % of road vehicles lorries comprise in the context of crossing a road.
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by ebohatch
LOCK THIS THREAD, or just erase.
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Most intelligent thing you've said in this thread.
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