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Ash256
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12-21-2006, 01:48 PM
Post subject: Garbage = Implied Odds?
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#1 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: UK
Posts: 1,760
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100BB effective stacks, 8 handed table. It's folded around to the button who minraises to 2BB, and the SB folds. You have a definite betting pattern tell on the button which says that whenever he minraises preflop, he only ever has AA or KK. The button's postflop play is fairly neutral and unintelligent - he's happy to stack off here and there but isn't a total fish. You have 72o in the BB. Do you call and see a flop?
What if the minraiser is in the SB (after it's folded around) and you're in the BB?
What if the tell is that he raises to 3BB? 4BB? How much does your postflop position affect your implied odds?
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bode
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2006
Location: slow motion
Posts: 4,270
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If, hypothetically, he only min-raises here with AA/KK, then i am calling here always. if you start talking about 3-4xbb raises, then it becomes less obvious what hand he has because this is (should be) his normal raise. if again, hypothetically, we know he has AA/KK always, i still dont know if i call the 3-4bb raise because 72o isnt making a hand that beats AA/KK enough to cover.
you also have to take into consideration the times you hit 2 pair, etc and he makes a better hand.
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Quote:
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eeevees are not monies yet...they are like baby monies.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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I call the minraise every time IF we know his cards. Generally trash has reverse implied odds but if we know his card this accuratly AND we know they are good enough to stack off with usually then its an easy call.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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Lukie
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: back with a vengeance
Posts: 3,307
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
I call the minraise every time IF we know his cards. Generally trash has reverse implied odds but if we know his card this accuratly AND we know they are good enough to stack off with usually then its an easy call.
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i agree
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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What kind of trash are we talking about?
83o?
K3o?
82s?
79o?
79s?
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,322
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72o
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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OP says 72o.
I think I call easily here with any 2 suited, or connected at all (62o) for sure.
72 need some pretty silly flops to beat AA/KK, and your 2 pair is trivially counterfieted if the board pairs. Your implied odds are 50:1... but I doubt you even stack him 2% of the time. Close though. He hits a set 1 in 8! AX/KXo are actually in worse shape.
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Fnord
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Moderator
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: I'll Do You Like A Truck
Posts: 19,333
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Fold the ass-end trash.
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drmcboy
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DrButtInski
Administrator
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 9,602
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There is a similar problem in Matt Matros' book that Ferguson put on a message board:
1/2 blinds, we each have 50k behind, I raise to $5, then accidentally show AA. What should you call with?
The answer turns out to be ATC. But, this is very different since we have not quite perfect info.
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by drmcboy
There is a similar problem in Matt Matros' book that Ferguson put on a message board:
1/2 blinds, we each have 50k behind, I raise to $5, then accidentally show AA. What should you call with?
The answer turns out to be ATC. But, this is very different since we have not quite perfect info.
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Note with _$50,000_ behind your implied odds are 10,000:1. Although it's going to take some overbets to get all-in...
Does the problem change if the AA holder *knows* he shows AA to you? Going to be much harder to win more than ~2 -3 bets off of him.
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