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Red_Diamond
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07-03-2006, 02:56 PM
Post subject: Full house (odds problem)
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 4
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Something has me a bit puzzled:
flopping EXACTLY a full house, a set to your hole pair and pairing the board 0.735%
flopping EXACTLY a full house, by the board tripping up 0.245%
Looking at that, the odds then of flopping ANY full house with a pair would be close to 1 percent. But I know that is a wrong conclusion.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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What is wrong with it exactly?
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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givememyleg
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WHO YA GONNA CALL?!??
Administrator
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: ISHPERMING MISHIGEN
Posts: 5,040
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you get a pp every 1/220 hands... out of those hands you flop a fullhouse ~1/100... sounds right to me?
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djzcko
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 285
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by givememyleg
you get a pp every 1/220 hands... out of those hands you flop a fullhouse ~1/100... sounds right to me?
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Actually, you get a PP every 17 hands. You get a specific PP (i.e. AA) once every 220 hands.
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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I think he's miss interpeting the chart. This is based on "the flop" not after the river. This is not the odds if you have a pocket pair. The odds on the first three completing your five card hand, and seven cards completing yu five card hand are huge in difference. What you start with is the biggest determining factor in what hands will complete..
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Trainer_jyms
I think he's miss interpeting the chart. This is based on "the flop" not after the river. This is not the odds if you have a pocket pair. The odds on the first three completing your five card hand, and seven cards completing yu five card hand are huge in difference. What you start with is the biggest determining factor in what hands will complete..
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He said "the odds of then flopping (...)".
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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jyms
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Tilting Mod
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 4,836
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Not you jack, him. He may be thinking that the odds have to be higher than that because the frequency of FH's definitley seems higher. Your math is sound.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Ah ok I get it now. I couldn't make sense of your post at first.
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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Red_Diamond
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 4
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I am not making sense of these replies either. Who is HIM exactly?
I am talking about hitting a boat on the flop. It is .74% to flop a boat. But if I add up the two ways to make a boat on the flop, it comes to 1%. I want to know where the flaw is.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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There is no flaw.
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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Red_Diamond
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 4
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Since there is no flaw, you are telling me that 0.74% is the same thing as 1%?
Hmmmmmmm............
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krimson
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 108
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Red_Diamond
I am talking about hitting a boat on the flop. It is .74% to flop a boat.
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Do you have some other chart telling you this? Maybe that chart doesn't count "board-trip" boats?
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Say you hold 22.
Flop 255, you have a boat, chance is 0.735%
Flop 555, you have a boat, chance is 0.245%
The second one isn't that great obviously, since any pair has a boat.
I also quickly redid the math, and it all seems correct as I came to the same conclusion
First case= 3*2/50*48/49*3/48
Second case= 48/50*3/49*2/48
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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Red_Diamond
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 4
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Quote:
I am talking about hitting a boat on the flop. It is .74% to flop a boat.
Do you have some other chart telling you this? Maybe that chart doesn't count "board-trip" boats?
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Yes, a few charts scattered about, that is exactly why I have been confused. I'm assuming some people are leaving out the case where you flop a boat due to the board coming trips.
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