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Folding trips + OESD to turn death line.

  
 
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Carroters
Old 09-11-2009, 11:00 PM     Post subject: Folding trips + OESD to turn death line. #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain is 14/12/2.8 over 60 hands. He hasn't done anything out of line yet and has seemed pretty tight/solid/nittish as the stats would.

I don't think he takes this line with anything at all that I beat. There are no worse jacks in his ranges that aren't boats and my straight draw outs may not actually be out as TT 99 JT are definitely in his range as well as KQ.

This is one of my crazy folds that usually get rightfully flamed, but I like this one. What do we think?

Btw before anyone mindlessly shouts call or shove, pleae make a range for villain to justify it k thanks bai.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($26.80)
Button ($4.90)
SB ($7.60)
BB ($37.85)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, Q
Hero bets $0.85, 1 fold, SB calls $0.75, BB calls $0.60

Flop: ($2.55) J, J, 9 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $1.80, SB calls $1.80, BB calls $1.80

Turn: ($7.95) 10 (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $5.85, 1 fold, BB raises $11.70, Hero folds

Total pot: $19.65

 
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BooG690
Old 09-11-2009, 11:30 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Only 22.94% equity needed for this call to be +EV (assuming no more future betting).

If villain has a range check/raising range of {TT-99,AhQh,KhQh,J9s+,9h8h}, you have 25.753% equity.

There's so many river cards that would make this hand a million times more interesting (not to say it's not interesting already). A Q or Q and you might be getting some stacks in your hand (or you may rarely into a straight flush). Four of your outs to the straight are dirty.

Basically, your location says it all. Good fold.

That's how winners play; we convince the other guy he's making all the right moves.
 
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clvacva
Old 09-12-2009, 12:03 AM #3 (permalink)  
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What range you put them on to bet the turn?
I mean the BB seems tag and his range for c/c the flop that you beat is 77-TT. Really what worse does he call with on the turn,88?
sb stats reads?
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Carroters
Old 09-12-2009, 12:15 AM #4 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by clvacva
What range you put them on to bet the turn?
I mean the BB seems tag and his range for c/c the flop that you beat is 77-TT. Really what worse does he call with on the turn,88?
sb stats reads?
Erm...how about a quazadecadillion draws?

Flush draws,pair + fds, QT, shit like that. I think checking the turn is a disaster because we allow these draws a free card and miss out on value. I mean if the main part of a range that we expect value from is the draws since there aren't many weak made hand son this board then it figures to bet the turn instead of the river since the turn is when they put monies in while behind.

 
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bigspenda73
Old 09-12-2009, 12:58 AM #5 (permalink)  
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 ffs at least call
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Old 09-12-2009, 07:14 AM #6 (permalink)  
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he could have Ah9h, AdTd and you have 11 outs vs. AJ
I think the turn is a call
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Carroters
Old 09-12-2009, 08:48 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 I have a hard time putting A9s in his range with these stats and I'd expect to see either a shove or a call with AdTd, but I suppose it's possible. This line is so often the nuts at these stakes I've found. My main concern is that we lose our stack or chop more often than not if we make a straight on the river. Like if we call here we're comitting ourselves to snap a bet if we make a straight on the river if he shoves river and I just feel boats and KQ are the majority of his range.

 
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surviva316
Old 09-12-2009, 09:01 AM #8 (permalink)  
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 min-raise, as is well known, is the biggest show of strength a tard opponent can make. against thinking opponents, though, people (including myself) have started to take advantage of this fear among regs.

this is a pretty good spot for villain to min-raise AdTd as a semi bluff and play fit or fold on the river and save like half their stack.

my point is, you can't weigh villains range so heavily toward nut hands in a reg vs reg spot like this because people are starting to balance their ranges here
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Old 09-12-2009, 10:53 AM #9 (permalink)  
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I think a lot of people will flat a boat on the turn because they feel like you can has a draw and they want you to hit it. That said, he could definitely have the boat if he just minraises because he's trying to give you good odds. So I would just call turn, and see if he gives up on the river.
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Carroters
Old 09-12-2009, 11:35 AM #10 (permalink)  
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 Surviva - Yeah what you say maybe true and in a HU reg vs reg spot with reads that villain is defo a thinking player, I can widen his range for this play.

However, 2 things to suggest I can give him a pretty nutted value range here:

1. I don't know if he's a thinking player or not, I just know he's very tight preflop and hasn't been too active or shown anything down.

2. Think about what my range looks like to a thinking opponentin this spot . Is it a range he'd want to try to make me fold? Probably not. I've just bet 2 streets on a scary board that nails preflop calling ranges into 2 opponents. I think my range is trips and good draws + here. I don't think he thinks he has any fold equity if he thinks about FE equity at all.

 
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