Originally Posted by NightGizmo

First -- do you have any reads on the player? Is he tight, loose, weak, aggressive, etc.?

As for the hand:

On the turn, he's probably either semi-bluffing a strong draw or value-betting with a strong made hand. The size of the bet seems more like a value bet, so he might have a full house, or he's just expecting to be able to successfully shove-bluff a ton of river cards so he wants as much of your money in now while leaving a believable shove for the river.

I would fold the turn without any reads. At 5NL he's probably not bluffing and your hand suffers from very bad reverse implied odds.

Originally Posted by Penneywize

Yeah I think the problem here is that the ranges we can ascribe to MP1 depend a great deal on reads. Specifically we want a general idea of what type of hands this player is flatting a preflop raise with in middle position. A loose / spewy 5NL type running 30/10 or so would be calling here with a great deal of AXs for example. Absent reads and assuming a fairly tight opponent, small pairs make up a huge chunk of their range which obviously hits this board very hard.

As played, I think this is a fold; I just don't see the min-raise flop, bet pot turn line being a bluff all that often in a spot like this at 5NL, even if the board is quite drawy. It's a bit close, though, because our villain's probably assuming a hand like 88 (or, say A7 if we had an opponent as described above) is the nuts and is betting for value.

As newfish alluded to, if we had a specific read on the opponent that led us to believe that they overplay draws quite a bit then I would be more willing to simply get it in here.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

anyway that being said, it is not a possible set because the second 4 is out there, that is a possible trips... a set is when you have a pcoket pair and hit your card giving you 3 of a kind.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

you guys dont think a random 5nl'er is doing this with 88-jj....between that and all the draws he has make this an easy call i feel like...


anyway that being said, it is not a possible set because the second 4 is out there, that is a possible trips... a set is when you have a pcoket pair and hit your card giving you 3 of a kind.

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

Well we should know if it's just a random 5nler or not, and 77/66 is a set on the flop here, and I don't think its really a big deal calling it a set when it would be a boat on the turn

Originally Posted by Tasha

Your pot odds are about 30%. Without any information on the villain your odds on drawing another queen are about 4.5%, so fold.

Originally Posted by Tasha

Your pot odds are about 30%. Without any information on the villain your odds on drawing another queen are about 4.5%, so fold.

Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics

i think he is doing this with 88-jj all day,

(...)

A4s (2)
A7s ( 3)
44 (1)
66 (3)
77 (3)
88 (6)
99 (6)
TT (6)
JJ (6)
QQ (1)
kk (6)
AA (6)
76s (2)
45s (2)
58s/35s (4)
AKhh/ AQhh (2)


for a total of 59 combos

of those combos we are beating a7s, 88-jj, and the 2 flush draws= 29 combos
we tie the 1 combo of qq
and we are drawing to a 2 outter vs 29 combos in his range.


if we can add more flush draws, 89s, a7o to his range then this is hugely ev +, as you can see we have about 50% equity vs his range so the pot odds still dictate a call

Originally Posted by Imthenewfish

since like everyone has a pretty set image for villain in their head and can't really agree on what it should be, I'd just like to say that we're trying to put a range on a microstakes unkown that we have no reads or stats on, and we'll NEVER come up with an accurate range unless we know something more about him. Usually it's a fold in situations like these because most of our reasoning for calling is because we're curious by nature, and human tedency is to call too much