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sarbox68
Old 05-31-2009, 07:20 AM     Post subject: Folding KK #1 (permalink)  
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Vil is 17/12/2.6 over 692.
Relevant other stats are 3b 3% (0% from the SB, even over 27 steal attempts) Fold to 3b is 64%. 4b is 18% Cbet is 72%.

When he 4bets I'm thinking KK+,AK... maybe QQ, but discounted. I flat the 4bet primarily to see if an A drops on the flop. I kinda would like to see this first before I decide to stack off 130bb deep.

Once the A flops, I'm now dead to AA and AK... splitting KK (1 combo) and beating QQ... which I've already discounted in his PF4b range. When he 2/3 the flop, I'm skewing heavily to AK. I think it's either fold or shove and I couldn't find it in me to stack off.

Stove gives me 40% equity on the flop w/out discounting QQ. Am I missing anything in my range or was this a fair fold? Does the pre-flop logic make sense? Or is this just more weak-tight bullsh!t.....

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($50.14)
Hero ($37.16)
UTG ($9.75)
UTG+1 ($38.77)
CO ($26.60)
BTN ($26.49)

Dealt to Hero KK

fold, fold, fold, fold, SB raises to $1, Hero raises to $3.25, SB raises to $9.75, Hero calls $6.50,

FLOP ($19.50) 63A

SB bets $12, Hero folds,

SB wins $18.53
 
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Fortitude
Old 05-31-2009, 07:23 AM #2 (permalink)  
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I think it was a good fold
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Old 05-31-2009, 07:27 AM #3 (permalink)  
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flatting a 4b? lol u mad?
he's felting QQ+,AK
shove it dumbbutt

you're going to feel retarded if ace flops and he bets his QQ
say an ace doesn't flop, how are you going to stack AK then? hope for the case king?
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AFchung
Old 05-31-2009, 07:28 AM #4 (permalink)  
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ship it pre. ezgame
http://afchung.blogspot.com/
 
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JKDS
Old 05-31-2009, 07:35 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
flatting a 4b? lol u mad?
he's felting QQ+,AK
shove it dumbbutt

you're going to feel retarded if ace flops and he bets his QQ
say an ace doesn't flop, how are you going to stack AK then? hope for the case king?
this.
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Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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PlayToWin
Old 05-31-2009, 07:36 AM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
flatting a 4b? lol u mad?
he's felting QQ+,AK
shove it dumbbutt

you're going to feel retarded if ace flops and he bets his QQ
say an ace doesn't flop, how are you going to stack AK then? hope for the case king?
Preflop he could stack-off and feel ok if beat, but post flop he only beats QQ-. I don't see how that's a bad fold post-flop.
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Old 05-31-2009, 08:28 AM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PlayToWin
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
flatting a 4b? lol u mad?
he's felting QQ+,AK
shove it dumbbutt

you're going to feel retarded if ace flops and he bets his QQ
say an ace doesn't flop, how are you going to stack AK then? hope for the case king?
Preflop he could stack-off and feel ok if beat, but post flop he only beats QQ-. I don't see how that's a bad fold post-flop.
I never said it was a bad fold, but you put yourself in a situation where you should feel stupid for flatting a 4b pre when your opponent probably wants to go all in preflop and you have kings
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AFchung
Old 05-31-2009, 10:38 AM #8 (permalink)  
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AS PLAYED, the fold is fine/good

but we could totally made this a much more favorable situation by getting it in pre instead of getting tricky or whatever you were trying to accomplish by flatting preflop
http://afchung.blogspot.com/
 
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sarbox68
Old 05-31-2009, 08:09 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AFchung
but we could totally made this a much more favorable situation by getting it in pre instead of getting tricky or whatever you were trying to accomplish by flatting preflop
...but if I shoved pre- and he called w/ AK then the flop would always contain an A... ldo

JK... but there actually was a reason behind posting this. Is KK always a "OMG I has KK... get it in pre-flop 150bb deep..." hand? Maybe so, and maybe I'm just over thinking this. And is this the type of vil to stop and think twice about, because...

1. This is the 1st time he's 3bet from the SB in 700 hands. Almost all his 3bets are from Co/Bu.
2. Looks like he's only 4bet 2-3 times in the same sample.
3. I'm not sure I put QQ in his 4bet range. So that leaves 8 combos of AK, 6 of AA and 1 of KK... which doesn't make AK that much more likely than AA. My thought process is that if I shove, I'm not sure he always calls w/ AK. So I figure that a) his 4-bet range prolly includes AK, b) his calling range on a shove may not, so c) if I flat the 4-bet and then the he doesn't spike an A on the flop, I'm ahead much more of the time than if he calls my PF shove. He may still cbet a non-A flop with AK as a cbet/bluff so may still snap off another bet. If he check/folds, meh, I still take down a nice pot.
4. If his 4bet range is AA,AK,KK I've got 47% equity and should def not fold to his 4bet (obviously). But shoving over against that range means putting money in while behind and esp if I think his shove calling range leans a lot more towards AA than AK.

100bb deep, I'd prolly just go meh and pull the trigger. 150bb deep I thought it made sense to actually think through this for a minute.

Maybe that wasn't the best for me .... but that was at least my thought process.
 
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Stacks
Old 05-31-2009, 08:30 PM #10 (permalink)  
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 (1) He didn't 3bet.. You did. He 4bet you.
(2) Your 3bet preflop is obviously correct, and if he only 4bets with KK+, AK, with the dead money in the pot and your 47% equity, you are obviously +EV to shove it in.
(3) This is blind v blind, so you should likely have a bit wider of a 3betting range, and if he realizes this then he should be stacking off lighter, and 4bet bluffing with some frequency. Meaning he is likely surely 4bet/calling QQ+, AK, and might bluff some hands.

So getting KK in here is definately +EV, and correct. On top of that, your logic for wanting to flat and see if an Ace drops is wrong. Say he will stack off preflop with QQ+, AK, then you have 57% equity, and he is stacking off with 21 combos. However, postflop if an A/K doesn't drop he might still stack off with QQ+, but is likely not doing anything other than cbetting AK (if he even cbets AK whiffed in a 4bet pot). And on the flop now you only have 50% equity against a stackoff range of QQ+ (on undercard flops).

So get the money in preflop here if you feel his 4betting range is strictly value. Now if you knew he was 4b bluffing with a large frequency, then you could think about flatting his 4bet and playing poker postflop, as you expect him to fold a very large % of his range to a shove. In which, you are likely going to be ahead of most of that range on most flops. But that's likely not the case, so just shove it in preflop.
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revolvingiris
Old 05-31-2009, 10:14 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
(1) He didn't 3bet.. You did. He 4bet you.
(2) Your 3bet preflop is obviously correct, and if he only 4bets with KK+, AK, with the dead money in the pot and your 47% equity, you are obviously +EV to shove it in.
(3) This is blind v blind, so you should likely have a bit wider of a 3betting range, and if he realizes this then he should be stacking off lighter, and 4bet bluffing with some frequency. Meaning he is likely surely 4bet/calling QQ+, AK, and might bluff some hands.

So getting KK in here is definately +EV, and correct. On top of that, your logic for wanting to flat and see if an Ace drops is wrong. Say he will stack off preflop with QQ+, AK, then you have 57% equity, and he is stacking off with 21 combos. However, postflop if an A/K doesn't drop he might still stack off with QQ+, but is likely not doing anything other than cbetting AK (if he even cbets AK whiffed in a 4bet pot). And on the flop now you only have 50% equity against a stackoff range of QQ+ (on undercard flops).

So get the money in preflop here if you feel his 4betting range is strictly value. Now if you knew he was 4b bluffing with a large frequency, then you could think about flatting his 4bet and playing poker postflop, as you expect him to fold a very large % of his range to a shove. In which, you are likely going to be ahead of most of that range on most flops. But that's likely not the case, so just shove it in preflop.
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Robb
Old 06-01-2009, 01:46 AM #12 (permalink)  
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 Found myself in a similar spot today - got 4bet by a nit, shove over w/ KK thinking "only way he calls here is with AA." But it was the right action, so I shoved. He tanked for a few, then called with JJ.
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Robb
Old 06-01-2009, 01:47 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Robb is an unknown quantity at this point
 BTW, good to have you back on FTR sarbox.
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Extremophile
Old 06-01-2009, 01:59 AM #14 (permalink)  
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position reversed...
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Old 06-01-2009, 02:43 AM #15 (permalink)  
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it's even worse if he has Ax and is 4b bluffing you
if you shove he has 0% equity because he folds
if you flat and he gets an ace you have no one to blame but yourself

but yeah, stacks makes a good point that seeing a flop and making sure there's no ace doesn't help us because we still have the same equity against his range

also, you have kings and you're not even 200BB deep
you should be aggressive enough preflop so that people want to play for stacks with a wider range against you
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Stacks
Old 06-01-2009, 02:56 AM #16 (permalink)  
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 Basically, if he is 4betting QQ/AK, you need to put the money in here. 4bet/folding QQ/AK is pretty terrible as you usually have the correct pot odds and equity to call it off when you get shoved on. I'm not checking the pot odds for when you shove here 150bb deep, but I wouldn't think of 4betting QQ/AK and folding to a shove here. And to do so blind v blind would be even worse, because as I said you should be 3betting a fairly wide range in this spot, and if he recognizes this, he should be 4bet bluffing some % of the time.

So if he is 4betting QQ+, AK, that is his value range, and he should be calling a shove with that entire range. If he is only 4betting KK+, then you should fold as you are behind his range.

If for instance, he IS 4betting QQ+, AK and folding all but KK/AA to a shove, we are still going to profit from our shove with him folding 14 of 21 combos, or 66% of the time. So it would still likely be +EV to shove if he is 4betting QQ+, AK and folding QQ/AK to a shove here. Which is going to be pretty terrible because against your entire range he will have like 40% equity at the least if he was to call. But instead, if he 4bet/folded those hands he has relinquished his entire equity, so we win the entire pot 100% of the time. Which is obviously great for us, but terrible for him.

And that to the fact that flatting here are going to be in some bad spots on some flops. Remember you don't just have his range to worry about, but you have to worry about what he thinks your range is. How do you expect to get any more value from AK when he whiffs? What about QQ when a K or A drops?
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