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Fold to river donk after showing aggression PF + 2 streets?

  
 
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tyrn
Old 05-24-2009, 06:23 PM     Post subject: Fold to river donk after showing aggression PF + 2 streets? #1 (permalink)  
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tyrn
Villains stats are 68/9/1.4. BvB I figured I could get him calling PSB's with lots of worse hands, so my bets are for value. His calling range on flop is easily any pocket pair, any Ax, 9T, JT, QT, KT, QJ, KJ and KQ. Does his lead on the river in this spot always mean I'm beat, even though he's loose and the shove was less than pot? The problem is I've pretty much played my hand face up, but I havent exactly given myself enough room to fold on the river. I'd like second opinions on whether this should be a fold or not.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 ($2.48)
CO ($2.92)
Button ($6.57)
SB ($2.35)
Hero (BB) ($2.01)
UTG ($1.87)
UTG+1 ($0.98)
MP1 ($2.58)
MP2 ($1.17)

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
7 folds, SB calls $0.01, Hero bets $0.10, SB calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.20) 5, A, 10 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, SB calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.60) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, SB calls $0.60

River: ($1.80) J (2 players)
SB bets $1.45 (All-In), Hero...?

Total pot: $4.02 | Rake: $0.15
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Micro2Macro
Old 05-24-2009, 07:39 PM #2 (permalink)  
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Micro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the rough
 Interesting...

I guess what you're asking is what his river donk shove range?

From my experience these usually are a decent hand...but I'm sure others will say call just because he's a donk, so I'll let those people handle this thread while I laugh and make what I think is the correct play. However, this doesn't mean he doesn't have hands in his range we don't beat. For example, you'll see AQ here often I bet.

Fwiw I probably bet turn a little less but I don't think it changes much.
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Old 05-24-2009, 07:57 PM #3 (permalink)  
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just call it off
you're good here more than 30% of the time or w/e
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Micro2Macro
Old 05-24-2009, 08:45 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Micro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the roughMicro2Macro is a jewel in the rough
 Came up with a range for you, you can add or subtract hands as you see fit:

Board: 5d Ac Th
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.551% 29.54% 04.01% 23394 3178.50 { TT, 55, A8s+, A5s, JTs, T8s, A8o+, A5o, JTo, T8o }
Hand 1: 66.449% 62.44% 04.01% 49449 3178.50 { AdKs }

Looks like a standard call.
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"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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tyrn
Old 05-24-2009, 09:44 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
Interesting...

I guess what you're asking is what his river donk shove range?

From my experience these usually are a decent hand...but I'm sure others will say call just because he's a donk, so I'll let those people handle this thread while I laugh and make what I think is the correct play. However, this doesn't mean he doesn't have hands in his range we don't beat. For example, you'll see AQ here often I bet.

Fwiw I probably bet turn a little less but I don't think it changes much.
This is exactly what I'm asking. I know I have to be good 31% of the time to call this, but I have trouble deciding whether I am or not. Part of me wants to think he's just bad and doesn't want to lay down his A9s or he thinks my line is FOS, so he's decided to stick it in before I do. The other part of me knows this move almost always means he's got top pair beat, and I should fold, even with the pot odds.

I think making decisions in these river spots where I've played my hand face up is my biggest weakness right now. I know it's very likely I had him beat on the flop and probably the turn as well, but everyone can suckout. As much as I love valuing 68/9 players, I hate paying them off even if they didn't have the implied odds.
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