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Fold to the PSB on river by a Nit?

  
 
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Kbryce23
Old 09-26-2009, 04:53 AM     Post subject: Fold to the PSB on river by a Nit? #1 (permalink)  
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Kbryce23
Raiser is a 10/8, and MP2 is 10/5 both over decent samples. Button is a fish. Should I fold pre? Is river an easy fold? Also flop seems bad too.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (CO) ($10)
Button ($3.65)
SB ($9.46)
BB ($12.55)
UTG ($9.47)
MP1 ($10.38)
MP2 ($12.35)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 4, A
1 fold, MP1 bets $0.35, MP2 calls $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, Button calls $0.35, 2 folds

Flop: ($1.55) 2, 7, 7 (4 players)
MP1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $0.80, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.80

Turn: ($3.15) 5 (2 players)
MP2 bets $1.80, Hero calls $1.80

River: ($6.75) Q (2 players)
MP2 bets $6.50, Hero ?
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kiwiMark
Old 09-26-2009, 05:10 AM #2 (permalink)  
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kiwiMark has a reputation beyond reputekiwiMark has a reputation beyond reputekiwiMark has a reputation beyond reputekiwiMark has a reputation beyond reputekiwiMark has a reputation beyond reputekiwiMark has a reputation beyond reputekiwiMark has a reputation beyond reputekiwiMark has a reputation beyond reputekiwiMark has a reputation beyond reputekiwiMark has a reputation beyond reputekiwiMark has a reputation beyond repute
 Disclaimer: I'm prettty new at all this myself, but here's my anlysis (posted as much to get critique as to help, if I'm being honest).

Preflop: MP2 is pretty tight, not sure what he's flatting a raise with but let's say: {AJ+, KJs+, KQo, QJs, 55+}

Flop: I don't think he's folding any PP's on this flop as it's unlikely you have a 7 with two out there already. Can't say whether he'd slowplay his monsters or raise with them, so we'll leave 22 and 77 in there. Also, he can't have Ax of diamonds since you hold the Ad. So let's say his continuing range after your flop bet is: {AK, KdJd+, QdJd, 55+}

Turn: Here I think he's firing all of his range except for AK and missed pocker pairs, as either he just made a flush or he thinks you have and wants value from his FH. Range is: {KdJd+, QdJd, 55, 77}

River: I'd say here he's betting with his whole range again, and you have 45% equity against that range and are getting about 2:1 on your money, so it's a call.

As I say, new to this, take the above with a grain of salt and hopefully someone will correct any of the more horrible mistakes on my part.

Mark[/b]
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Old 09-26-2009, 08:13 AM #3 (permalink)  
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in position multiway your hand plays well
I'd bet flop because PFR checked

against a fish I would ship turn, but since he's a nit flatting is OK, and I would call river because he could be vbetting worse flushes and possibly trips with a good kicker
it's tough for me to put him on a flopped boat or quads every time
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oskar
Old 09-26-2009, 01:36 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 preflop call is very marginal.
flop bet is fine.

What's his range on the river?
Does he ever have 67, etc, and then do the combo thang and der u go.

I hate calling btw. He's never bet/folding there. Ship or fold depending on what you think of his range.
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Kbryce23
Old 09-26-2009, 05:33 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oskar
preflop call is very marginal.
flop bet is fine.

What's his range on the river?
Does he ever have 67, etc, and then do the combo thang and der u go.

I hate calling btw. He's never bet/folding there. Ship or fold depending on what you think of his range.
I dont think he ever has a 7. Maybe like 2 flushes in his range, I think if he has a flush its QKs. He probably has AA,KK once in awhile too. Do you mean ship the turn or the river. I just noticed that his river bet is pretty much a shove, there is only like .40 left.
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Old 09-26-2009, 08:33 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oskar
preflop call is very marginal.
flop bet is fine.

What's his range on the river?
Does he ever have 67, etc, and then do the combo thang and der u go.

I hate calling btw. He's never bet/folding there. Ship or fold depending on what you think of his range.
if we're ahead exactly 33%-49% of the time it's a call
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