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Myke
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05-05-2006, 02:21 PM
Post subject: Fold Equity.... What is it?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 54
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I did do a forum search and didn't seem to see a topic on it. Just alot of posts where someone mentions it in passing.
I am familiar with pot odds and implied odds. Still not to big on reverse implied odds. I'm trying to pick up on what makes something +EV vs. -EV.
But I have no earthly idea what Fold Equity is. Can anyone explain this or point me to where its already been talked about.
-Thanks-
--Myke
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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It means how likely your opponents are to fold a medium hand. Like if they're calling stations they won't fold their MP so it's useless to try to bluff them out of it.
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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flomo
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: mashing potatoes
Posts: 878
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is jack right ? because i always thought it had to do with stack size and the larger the stack the more fold equity
i would also like it explained. 
thank you
flomo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
Protect dog
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Ofcourse jack is right. Jack is always right! 
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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Myke
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Join Date: Apr 2006
Posts: 54
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Jack you're reasoning sounds more like a percentage. My equity is based on the chance my opponent is weak/aggresive/stubborn?
The term Equity makes me think of an amount. Which would leave me to believe it has something to do with the pot,stack sizes, and bets. I just don't know how they relate.
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geoffm33
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Boston
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http://www.google.com/search?q=what+...US:eek:fficial
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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the % chance that opponent will fold a better hand than yours to your bet.
ex. You have 67 and bet in LP preflop, BB calls. Flop is 389 rainbow. BB bets, and you raise. You technically have the worst hand if he has T9, with only a 32% chance of winning. But since you are representing a hand better than T9, the villain will fold to your raise. Fold equity is the percent chance that he will do so. In this case you probably need him to fold around 40% or so of the time for it to be a profitable semibluff.
Even if he doesn't fold though, its a good play because he will probably let you see a free river card.
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GatorJH
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: HotLanta
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by flomo
is jack right ? because i always thought it had to do with stack size and the larger the stack the more fold equity
i would also like it explained.
thank you
flomo |
DISCLAIMER: I am still coming to grips with fold equity, but will take a stab at this to see how close I am to understanding this concept.
Stack size does somewhat play a role in fold equity. Let me give you an example of fold equity in action.
Hand 1 -
Setup - Blinds are .25/.50, you have $55 and villian has $45
you are on the button with A of spades and 10 of hearts, it is folded to you and you put in a 4xBB raise to $2. Villian in the BB calls, so now the pot is $4.25 (counting the SB chips).
The following flop hits: J of hearts, A of hearts and 6 of spades
You decide to put out a contunuation bet of $3, villian calls and the pot is now $10.25, of which both of you have invested $5. Your stacks are now at $50 for you and $40 for villian.
At this point you put villian on possibly a fiush draw, but more likely something like AK (unlikely), AQ, AJ, KQ or some similar holding. The turn hits with something like 3 of clubs.
You feel like you may still have the best hand at this point and decide that it is time to take down the pot so you put in a bet of $15. In this case villian has a lot of fold equity. He has only invested $5 into the pot, but still has $40 in chips so he may be more willing to fold a hand like second pair, TPMK, etc.
NOW, if you take the same exact hand , but instead of villian having $45 to begin with he has $10. When you put that bet out on the turn he has now invested $5 and only has $5 left so he may be more inclined to see if his middle pair, TPMK type hand is good enough. He doesn't have enough fold equity to go away.
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Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
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GatorJH
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: HotLanta
Posts: 3,179
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Renton
the % chance that opponent will fold a better hand than yours to your bet.
ex. You have 67 and bet in LP preflop, BB calls. Flop is 389 rainbow. BB bets, and you raise. You technically have the worst hand if he has T9, with only a 32% chance of winning. But since you are representing a hand better than T9, the villain will fold to your raise. Fold equity is the percent chance that he will do so. In this case you probably need him to fold around 40% or so of the time for it to be a profitable semibluff.
Even if he doesn't fold though, its a good play because he will probably let you see a free river card.
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So it looks like my example isn't exactly correct. With your above example, how do you apply playing styles to fold equity? Does the % chance he folds go up for a tight player and down for someone looser? If so, is there any logic in determining that or is it more of an art?
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Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
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flomo
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: mashing potatoes
Posts: 878
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gator
i made $70 bucks on the bball brackets by choosing the gators
go gators
actually my wife picked them but i still got the money 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
Protect dog
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Rondavu
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
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Like when you have 7xBB in a tournament, and push into a high stack with 100xBB. He will call with a wide range of hands, so therefore your fold equity is bad.
Fold equity = Ability to make the opponent fold.
Also, if you get to a river after firing two barrells, the pot is $52, and the villain has $10 left, you have almost no fold equity left. He's going to showdown most likely.
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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GatorJH
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: HotLanta
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by flomo
gator
i made $70 bucks on the bball brackets by choosing the gators
go gators
actually my wife picked them but i still got the money |
I made money on them as well, and I hope the wifey got "something" out of the deal.
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Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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The definition of fold equity is the value you get from the times your opponent folds. So if there is $100 in the pot and you semi bluff push all in (for $100) and your opponet folds 50% of the time then your fold equity is $50 (0.5xpot). If he wins 75% of the time he calls you then your equity for the times he calls you is $200x0.25 + -$100x0.75=-$25. So your total equity is your fold equity added to the equity you have when you get called = $50 + -$25 = $25 making the move +EV overall.
Summary
Fold Equity = (% of the time your opponent folds) * (the amount of money you win when he folds ie pot size)
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flomo
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: mashing potatoes
Posts: 878
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Rondavu
Like when you have 7xBB in a tournament, and push into a high stack with 100xBB. He will call with a wide range of hands, so therefore your fold equity is bad.
Fold equity = Ability to make the opponent fold.
Also, if you get to a river after firing two barrells, the pot is $52, and the villain has $10 left, you have almost no fold equity left. He's going to showdown most likely.
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that is what i thought, but my thinking is not always right
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigred
Protect dog
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Iwind
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Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Norway
Posts: 436
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It's never possible to decide exactly how much folding equity you have when making a play, and I think your example in a way shows how stacks matter, GatorJH, even though it would be you having the folding equity when making the bet. If I'm playing very tight at a table I will have less folding equity when I make bet and raises since the other players will be less likely giving me credit for a hand. Example: Before I was never reraising preflop with anything apart from AK,KK,AA, that made people fold to my reraises preflop quite a lot, since they gave me credit for one of these hands when I reraised their raise preflop. These days my range is wider, I do this with a wide range of hands, and some players notice this, so when I do these reraises preflop now I have less folding equity since they are more likely to think I'm just tryint to steal the pot, even though they still fold often enough to make it profitable.
In a way you could say it's more of an art, or rather something you learn trough experience. However the main factors I can think of now are stack sizes, your table image, oponents playing style, oponents feelings(usually less folding equity making plays against players on tilt) and in MTTs and satellites price payouts can matter. Probably more factors I have forgotten as well.
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GatorJH
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: HotLanta
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This would be a pretty good sticky as there are some great examples of fold equity here.
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Poker is easy, it's winning at poker that's hard.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Fold equity literally is like arkana said the expected revenue from when they fold by the percentage of likelyhood that they fold, but in practical use it's "how likely they are to fold a better hand". (above I named it a "medium hand" b/c it only applies when you have a lesser hand ofcourse, and they don't have the nuts)
There are a lot of factors that can add fold equity:
- stack sizes: if either of you has little left in their stack, there is less fold equity. If your opp has a huge stack behind (and you have him covered) then he might lay down his TP to your flop raise b/c he risks losing everything.
- the limit: lower limits means in general less fold equity. (they love to call you down)
- the site you play at: I have no experience here, only played one site so far, but from all the posts here there is a difference in fold equity between sites.
- the tightness of the player in question. Even at the lower limits, plenty of people will lay down TP on a scary board to your big raise.
- your table image: the tighter your image is, the more likely your opponents are to fold if you go strong. If you have been playing like a maniac, you'll have less fold equity.. people might stick to their TP, thinking you're being a maniac again, overplaying your little holdings.
- how scary the board is: if the flop is 89T all hearts, you'll have more fold equity against a guy holding AT than if the board would be 25T rainbow.
I think these are about right, but the list is no doubt incomplete.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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fold equity is not a percentage. Fold equity is a dollar amount. Arkana's description is correct.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Pelion
fold equity is not a percentage. Fold equity is a dollar amount. Arkana's description is correct.
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Technically yes, but the way it is used in the posts here is like it were a percentage.
Like if someone says "you have more fold equity at the higher limits".. technically this refers to the amount you get when they fold, but practically it refers to how often people fold a better hand, since there is no $$ mentionned.
Atleast that's how I've seen it used here. (mainly by Renton I think)
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Renton
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Atlanta, GA, USA
Posts: 5,991
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dollar amount, percentage
semantics
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jackvance
Like if someone says "you have more fold equity at the higher limits".. technically this refers to the amount you get when they fold, but practically it refers to how often people fold a better hand, since there is no $$ mentionned.
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Well you have to consider it as a BB amount if you are comparing different stakes...
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Originally Posted by Renton
dollar amount, percentage
semantics
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Not at all. If you use a percentage then you totally ignore pot size and bet size. How the hell can you decide if your decision has +EV based on that?
Its no good knowing you have a 60% chance of winning the pot with a $10 bluff if you have no idea how big the pot is...
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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What's with the needless nitpicking Pelion? If someone says "at 10NL you have less fold equity than at 200NL" or "on a 9dTdJd board you have more fold equity vs TP than on a J72 rainbow board vs TP" then what does the amount matter?
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Sarcasm is your body's natural defense against stupidity
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Awaji E
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Japan
Posts: 61
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Fold equity refers to the chance that you'll win by making your opponents fold, without a showdown.
So, lets say opponent has AA, you've got any two cards. (Doesn't matter right, we're not talking about show-downs here.) You've got very little fold equity, because no matter what you do, your opponent probably won't fold. (You've also got great implied odds, because if you can make any better hand, your opponent will still have a hard time folding.)
Now, if your opponent has KK, and you've got any two cards, and there's and ace on the flop, NOW you've got some fold equity. Even if you are hopelessly behind, if you bet, your opponent might put you on that ace, and fold. The chances that he'll do that is "fold equity".
In any situation, you can really only guess at how much fold equity you have. Its a matter of reads. You can't calculate it as concretely as pot-odds.
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arkana
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 1,109
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jackvance
What's with the needless nitpicking Pelion? If someone says "at 10NL you have less fold equity than at 200NL" or "on a 9dTdJd board you have more fold equity vs TP than on a J72 rainbow board vs TP" then what does the amount matter?
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Yes fold equity is often wrongly used and normally its no big deal since (like in your example) its pretty obvious what you are trying to say. However there may be examples where your opponent will fold a high % of the time but your fold equity will still be low (small pot and you make a gross overbet) and it can be very confusing if people use fold equity incorrectly there. Also when you define a term its good practice to be nitty so as to avoid future misunderstandings.
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jackvance
What's with the needless nitpicking Pelion?
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Someone asked what it ment? Its kinda important to get it right if someones specifically asked.
If someone made a post saying should i semibluff here with 50% FE then I dont comment. Its obvious what they mean so i dont care. If someone specifically asks what it means, then someone answers (slightly wrongly), and someone else corrects. Then yea I confirm the correction. Whats wrong with that?
There is no nitpicking here. Someone posted a slightly wrong explanation. Arkana corrected, and I confirmed that correction.
You then said
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if someone says "you have more fold equity at the higher limits".. technically this refers to the amount you get when they fold, but practically it refers to how often people fold a better hand, since there is no $$ mentionned.
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Practically you are very often right, but there are quite a few situations where you are very very wrong.
Quote:
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Originally Posted by jackvance
If someone says "at 10NL you have less fold equity than at 200NL" or "on a 9dTdJd board you have more fold equity vs TP than on a J72 rainbow board vs TP" then what does the amount matter?
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The amount matters because in a small pot the play can be -EV with more than 50% FE. Someone asked us to "define fold equity" here. Of course the actual definition matters...
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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ekillian
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Straight
Join Date: Apr 2005
Posts: 235
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by geoffm33
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If your response is "google it" the why the fuck are you in this forum? It's a legit question.
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jackvance
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 2,910
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Well, the original poster (Myke) said he has seen the word used but never really understood what it meant. Giving the actual definition without the practical way it is used in this forum will only confuse him. He will have a formula and know it's an amount, and then he'll see someone say "you have more fold equity at 50NL". No amounts mentionned?! Ofcourse the actual definition never hurts, but in light of his question, I think the more intuitive explanation actually helps him out more.
I'm also a bit confused why you bring in whether it would be +EV or -EV. If they are more likely to fold, your fold equity is higher. Whether your play is +EV or -EV on the whole is irrelevant to the concept of fold equity.
Oh yeah...
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Still not to big on reverse implied odds.
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I'm not sure about all the situations this concept would apply in, but an example will help I think:
Say the flop is three clubs. Your opp bets, and you are holding the jack of clubs. You might think "ok I'm gonna call his bet b/c of pot odds that I hit my flush". However, this is possibly a situation with reverse implied odds. If your opponent holds the A/K/Q of clubs, you are gonna lose a little if you miss (no 5th club shows up), but you'll be losing your stack if your draw completes. If your draw will complete what is only a second best hand, you have reverse implied odds.
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MehFU
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 101
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what sort of fold equity do i have over a big stack in the bb and im the small blind and i have 3M?
is it practically 0?
example i push with j9o or similar from the small blind and he has a low pp is he ever folding when i make it 2.5x all in?
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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fancy way of describing the value of bluffing.
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Smithers, use the amnesia ray.
You mean the revolver, sir?
Precisely.
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by MehFU
what sort of fold equity do i have over a big stack in the bb and im the small blind and i have 3M?
is it practically 0?
example i push with j9o or similar from the small blind and he has a low pp is he ever folding when i make it 2.5x all in?
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the answer to your question is "it depends"
we need far more information. Also, maybe start a new thread for this.
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by MehFU
what sort of fold equity do i have over a big stack in the bb and im the small blind and i have 3M?
is it practically 0?
example i push with j9o or similar from the small blind and he has a low pp is he ever folding when i make it 2.5x all in?
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Your fold equity is practically 0 if he's getting 2:1 on a call. At this point it would be -EV for him to fold 23o
What your fold equity is there depends on your opponent, his stack, the blind level, whether or not you're on the bubble, if it's a bounty...
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settecba
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: stealing blinds from UTG
Posts: 326
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Iwind
It's never possible to decide exactly how much folding equity you have when making a play, and I think your example in a way shows how stacks matter, GatorJH, even though it would be you having the folding equity when making the bet. If I'm playing very tight at a table I will have less folding equity when I make bet and raises since the other players will be less likely giving me credit for a hand. Example: Before I was never reraising preflop with anything apart from AK,KK,AA, that made people fold to my reraises preflop quite a lot, since they gave me credit for one of these hands when I reraised their raise preflop. These days my range is wider, I do this with a wide range of hands, and some players notice this, so when I do these reraises preflop now I have less folding equity since they are more likely to think I'm just tryint to steal the pot, even though they still fold often enough to make it profitable.
In a way you could say it's more of an art, or rather something you learn trough experience. However the main factors I can think of now are stack sizes, your table image, oponents playing style, oponents feelings(usually less folding equity making plays against players on tilt) and in MTTs and satellites price payouts can matter. Probably more factors I have forgotten as well.
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IT IS POSSIBLE to determine fold equity. What you should do is put your opp on a range of hands based on previous action(i.e.: he limped), and then determine what portion of that range would fold to your play(i.e.: you shove).
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celtic123
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: **Officially**The worst poster on FTR
Posts: 708
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this is a quality post. could it be stickied?
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