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A10Chief
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10-25-2005, 04:25 AM
Post subject: Fold Equity???
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Germany
Posts: 285
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I often hear the term "Fold Equity," especially in discussions about late tournament play. Would someone explain what fold equity is and when I should be concerned with it?
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Greedo017
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
Posts: 1,461
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any time you bet or call, you want to increase your equity, or in other words, any bet or call you make you should make because it is increasing the amount of money that will eventually be yours at the end of the hand. Equity does not concern the results of that hand. It concerns the % of the time that you will win. If you will win a 100BB pot 75% of the time, in the long run your equity is 75BB of that 100BB, regardless of what happens on this hand or the next 50.
so, if you are on a flush draw after the flop, and the pot is 5 dollars, it costs 1 dollar to see the turn, your equity goes up by calling compared to folding, because its costing you 5:1 to see the turn and there's a 4:1 chance of hitting your card on the turn.
But now let's look at a different situation. Let's say you flop an outside straight flush draw. your chances of winning this hand are now probably just over 50%. If someone bet all-in, you'd probably call, but its not really ideal, agreed? risking all your money for a 52% chance at winning is something you might have to do sometimes, but the variance there is so large it doesn't really give you an awesome feeling. BUT, let's say YOU push. Now, there is a 52% chance of winning if he calls. But, what % of the time can you expect a fold? Let's say they would fold 50% of the time to this bet. now, 50% of the time they fold and you are winning the current pot, 50% of the time they call and of those times, 52% of the time you are winning the whole pot. So, you clearly are winning more money with this hand by pushing rather than calling. You can probably see how this can even turn marginally -EV plays into +EV plays. If your hand is 43% to win, pushing might not be awful, but calling is.
So, more generally, fold equity is the amount of money you can be expected to win because your opponent will fold to your bet a certain % of the time.
You should be concerned with fold equity when it is high, or can be used to your advantage. It is high at a variety of times - bubble time, when a scare card hits, etc. I'd say fold equity can be nearing 100% at times. Don't only look at it at certain times, just keep it in the back of your head all the time. It is probably most useful in situations where your play is borderline, or possibly even -EV if they call, but the chance of them folding is so high that its worth the risk, and I would say these situations most commonly occur during crunch time in tournaments or sng's.
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