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coldmultra
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03-19-2005, 04:55 AM
Post subject: Flush Odds
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 37
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Anyone know the odds of flopping a flush?
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Greedo017
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
Posts: 1,461
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my spider senses are telling me its like 1%.
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coldmultra
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 37
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That sucks
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Assuming you hold two suited cards?
It's low enough not to factor the odds.
11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48 = 0.0085 = 0.85%
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Waggho
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Sweden
Posts: 260
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
Assuming you hold two suited cards?
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LOL! Otherwise it will be hard! :P
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coldmultra
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 37
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That sucks even more.
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SinkRox
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Brighton, UK
Posts: 624
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ur suited hole cards flop a flush only 1 in 120 times
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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ya, what are the odds in flopping a straight flush, I did it once :P
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take your ego out of the equation and judge the situation dispassionately
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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It's not likely. The exact probability isn't very interesting or even useful.
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thestrokes
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Straight
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 119
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ill talk my way through this...
Assuming you have a suited connecter, no gaps 2 cards connect with with your hole cards, 2 connect with those 3, and 2 connect with those 4.
2/50 * 2/49 * 2/48=
.04 * .04816 * .0416= .0000801 =.008%...which doesnt sound right...
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"Confidence not overconfidence"
-radashack
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Greedo017
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
Posts: 1,461
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odds of flopping a straight flush... that's tough. just looked it up, its 4899 to 1 if you're holding 98s, so .02%. someone on here might know how to figure it but not me.
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by thestrokes
ill talk my way through this...
Assuming you have a suited connecter, no gaps 2 cards connect with with your hole cards, 2 connect with those 3, and 2 connect with those 4.
2/50 * 2/49 * 2/48=
.04 * .04816 * .0416= .0000801 =.008%...which doesnt sound right...
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What? These numbers don't make any sense at all. With two suited pocket cards, there are 11 remaining cards of the appropriate suit left in the deck with 50 unseen cards before the flop. Since one of these has to fall, followed by another, followed by another, the probability is 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48.
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mimmons775
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 92
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ive flopped a straight flush once too. had 97 hearts flop came 6 8 10 of hearts, it was nice.
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"I guess if there wasnt luck involved id win everyone."
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mimmons775
ive flopped a straight flush once too. had 97 hearts flop came 6 8 10 of hearts, it was nice.
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You.. mean you flopped a straight flush?
-'rilla
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mimmons775
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 92
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yeah thats what i said
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"I guess if there wasnt luck involved id win everyone."
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BradCKY
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 10
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Thanks dsax I've been wondering that.
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a500lbgorilla
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JESUS TAKE THE KEYBOARD
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: This room is a good place to be
Posts: 8,379
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by mimmons775
yeah thats what i said
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May bad, I read it as a "flush and a straight."
I'm having trouble reading stuff recently. My eyes are gone!
-'rilla
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mimmons775
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Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 92
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its ok, you might wanna get that checked out haha
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"I guess if there wasnt luck involved id win everyone."
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by thestrokes
ill talk my way through this...
Assuming you have a suited connecter, no gaps 2 cards connect with with your hole cards, 2 connect with those 3, and 2 connect with those 4.
2/50 * 2/49 * 2/48=
.04 * .04816 * .0416= .0000801 =.008%...which doesnt sound right...
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What? These numbers don't make any sense at all. With two suited pocket cards, there are 11 remaining cards of the appropriate suit left in the deck with 50 unseen cards before the flop. Since one of these has to fall, followed by another, followed by another, the probability is 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48. |
Those numbers do make sense. He was working out the probability of flopping a straight flush, not just a flush. Why it worked out to be higher than the percent someone listed, I don't know (except that perhaps someone didn't figure things right when coming up with that ratio).
- Jeffrey
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dsaxton
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Arlington, VA
Posts: 2,667
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
Quote:
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Originally Posted by dsaxton
Quote:
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Originally Posted by thestrokes
ill talk my way through this...
Assuming you have a suited connecter, no gaps 2 cards connect with with your hole cards, 2 connect with those 3, and 2 connect with those 4.
2/50 * 2/49 * 2/48=
.04 * .04816 * .0416= .0000801 =.008%...which doesnt sound right...
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What? These numbers don't make any sense at all. With two suited pocket cards, there are 11 remaining cards of the appropriate suit left in the deck with 50 unseen cards before the flop. Since one of these has to fall, followed by another, followed by another, the probability is 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48. |
Those numbers do make sense. He was working out the probability of flopping a straight flush, not just a flush. Why it worked out to be higher than the percent someone listed, I don't know (except that perhaps someone didn't figure things right when coming up with that ratio).
- Jeffrey |
Actually, the numbers still make no sense. In order to find the probability of flopping a straight flush, you need to know how closely connected your cards are, and also their rank. This would tell you how many sets of 3 connected and suited cards will give you a straight flush, and then you have to find how many different ways each of these sets of 3 cards can flop. It's not as simple as just multiplying three numbers together and getting the answer.
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fluffysnurgle
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Join Date: Mar 2005
Posts: 8
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The biggest freak accident hand I've been involved in is when I had 45 hearts, flop came 678 hearts, flopped a straight flush! But someone else had the 9 and 10. I lost my stack.
I've also flopped a royal flush, but that was playing limit Omaha, so the odds are better. Everyone folded (probably should not have bet) so I didn't even get to show it down. Hey, at least I didn't lose.
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SinkRox
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Full House
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Brighton, UK
Posts: 624
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by fluffysnurgle
The biggest freak accident hand I've been involved in is when I had 45 hearts, flop came 678 hearts, flopped a straight flush! But someone else had the 9 and 10. I lost my stack.
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Thats harsh! Ive lost a flush to straight flush before in a live game. I've played so much poker online for a year yet the only time ive seen a royal flush was when my girlfriend got one, and she hardly plays.
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Experimenting - 200NL 5max.
"They say that dreams are real only as long as they last. Couldn't you say the same thing about life?" Waking life
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pantherhound
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Flush
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Love me for a season
Posts: 492
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I folded 76s pre flop in a casino tournament to see, in numerical order, 8 9 10s come down. It was like it was taunting me by making itself unmissable.
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DWDuck
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Straight
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Canada eh?
Posts: 178
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The 4899:1 odds are correct. Here is why.
I'm only calculating the probability of flopping a straight flush with suited connectors with at least 3 cards on both sides that can be used. (ie, JQ will not work since you only have AK above that). To do this, you need to consider all straight flushes possible. For 98s, these cards must be considered:
       
Looking at the diagram above, you can see that we can make 4 different straight flushes here. Let's narrow down to a single straight flush, say:
The odds of flopping this flush if you hold the 8 and 9 is:
Odds = 3/50*2/49*1/48 = 1/14700 = 0.0068%
(incidently, this is the odds of flopping a royal flush if you hold 2 suited cards T or higher)
Explained quickly, there are 3 cards that can come up on the first flopped card, 2 on the second, and one on the third. Now, going back to before... since there are 4 different straight flushes we can get with 98s, the odds of flopping a flush are the above multiplied by 4. This is:
Odds = 4(3/50*2/49*1/48) = 1/4900 = 0.02%
Good to know that after 4900 hands you might flop a straight flush. Sucks that you probably got it in EP and folded it.
Darkwing
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jmontis
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 1,296
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I've only flopped it once, with 47s limping from the button in a family pot, heh.
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Sykedupp
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Flush
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Vancouver, BC, Canada
Posts: 550
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by jmontis
I've only flopped it once, with 47s ...
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The Rippy in a Suit :P
-Chris
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by soupie
That is the beauty of poker, it doesnt matter how they play, you can always devise the perfect defense and counterpunch hard.
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cotrackguy
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09-14-2006, 08:15 AM
Post subject: Did it Today
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#27 (permalink)
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1
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No idea what the odds are, but I did it today.... Thought I must have read the cards wrong when the flop came.
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Galapogos
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: The Loser's Lounge
Posts: 2,322
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What happened to DWDuck anyway? Too pro for us now?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by sauce123
I don't get why you insist on stacking off with like jack high all the time.
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johnny_fish
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: donkaments weeeeeeeeeeee
Posts: 2,186
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He could compute the odds of flopping a straight flush..
He's a probably a millionaire by now 
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bigslikk
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Flush
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Chicago
Posts: 445
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At a live home game, my friend flopped a royal flush with KTs and pushed all in. Obviously, everyone folded and he showed it. Lol odds of that are insane and yet he wasted it.
It'd probably be better to flop a straight flush than a royal- when you flop a royal flush no one is gonna have better than a 9-high flush so you won't get any play. Flop a straight flush the A and K might believe they're ahead.
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KWilnor
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 20
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigslikk
At a live home game, my friend flopped a royal flush with KTs and pushed all in. Obviously, everyone folded and he showed it. Lol odds of that are insane and yet he wasted it.
It'd probably be better to flop a straight flush than a royal- when you flop a royal flush no one is gonna have better than a 9-high flush so you won't get any play. Flop a straight flush the A and K might believe they're ahead.
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I flopped a Royal Flush. Double luck for me was that another guy flopped an A hi straight and bet all-in!
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rattlewar
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Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Melb, AUS
Posts: 1
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I had J 10 of spades. flop came 9 Q K spades could not belive it. i checked some guy bet big i just called. Q on the turn i checked he pushed all in and i called. he showed me KQ then i hit the As on the river giving me a royal... would love to know the odds of flopping the SFlush and then hitting the royal on the river.
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Lithium
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 79
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Last night in a live game, I was holding KJs (spades) and called an all-in preflop bet of about $30 (just wanted to give the guy action since I had pushed him out of a $200 pot earlier with TPTK). No more action on the table and I turn over. Flop comes 10 Q A (spades) for the flopped royal. I jumped out of my chair (not over the money, I don't get excited when I win $1000 pots).
The royal pays $250 jackpot there, but just hitting that was a flipping rush.
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themuckraker
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05-30-2007, 07:00 PM
Post subject: Odds: Flush vs. Straight
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#34 (permalink)
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 1
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Hey I have a question, and this is because I'm bad at math, not cause I doubt anyone's calculations:
Why is it that pre-flop odds are 23.5% for getting suited hole cards, and 15.7% to get connectors, when the odds of hitting a straight are much better than hitting a flush?
What's the math behind this seeming contradiction?
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zenbitz
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05-30-2007, 10:06 PM
Post subject: Re: Odds: Flush vs. Straight
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#35 (permalink)
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by themuckraker
Hey I have a question, and this is because I'm bad at math, not cause I doubt anyone's calculations:
Why is it that pre-flop odds are 23.5% for getting suited hole cards, and 15.7% to get connectors, when the odds of hitting a straight are much better than hitting a flush?
What's the math behind this seeming contradiction?
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Because you can flop a straight with (for example) 1-gappers, 2-gappers, and 3-gappers as well.
When you add it all up - there are more straights in 5 random cards (and 7) than flushes.
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sunnyday
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 23
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since this is all about flush odds, i'd like to ask another...
anyone know the odds for a flush by the river from 2 suited cards? (i.e. 3 or more of 5 board cards having desired suit)
or maybe someone can give me a hint as to how to calculate these?
cheers
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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It's kind of tedious to calculate, but here is how:
There are 13 hearts, you hold 2. So 11 left, and 50 cards left (we just ignore opponents for now).
You can have a flush with 5 hearts, 4 hearts, or 3 hearts on the board, and the total probability is the sum of these 3 cases.
There are formulae for this, but that won't help you understand it, and I can't remember them off hand.
P(5 hearts/5 cards) = P( 1st card is a heart) * P (2nd card is a heart) * ...
= 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48 * 8/47 * 7/46 - you can multiply that out.
P(4 hearts/5 cards) is trickier, because the non-heart can appear in all 5 spots. Luckily, this is just 5*P(4 hearts/4cards) .
= 5 * ( 11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48 * 8/47)
P (3 hearts/ 5 cards) - (11/50 * 10/49 * 9/48 ) is the probability of 3 hearts in 3 cards - there are 5 * 4 / 2 = 10 ways you can combine 3 hearts and 2 non-hearts, so multiply this by 10.
Add those 3 numbers up and you should get something like 15%
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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making a flush with 2 suited hole cards is not a 15% chance zen. I think it's more around 5%. You only flop a flush draw 10% of the time dawg. So actually it's more like 3.5%
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sunnyday
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 23
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thx for the prompt feedback, guys!
still not quite sure the truth has been unveiled yet though...
i have been thinking about this one because it seems a relevant number for some preflop situations e.g. how much better the chance of winning a pot with AKs in relation to AKo?
i actually follow zenbitz's argument well and think it most likely is the correct process for doing this calculation . you seem to understand the mathematics in this very well.
though doing the calculation outlined i come up with 9.15% on my calculator. (assuming i didnt screw up somewhere on the line)
thats 0.02% (7-flush) + 0.72% (6-flush) + 8.42% (5-flush)
@bigspenda:
arent you neglecting stuff like backdoor flushes?
cheers
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holdin2
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 279
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lithium
(not over the money, I don't get excited when I win $1000 pots).
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Was this little (not-so-veiled brag) tidbit necessary? Hmmm?
Kind of a given anyone gets excited over flopping a royal.
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
making a flush with 2 suited hole cards is not a 15% chance zen. I think it's more around 5%. You only flop a flush draw 10% of the time dawg. So actually it's more like 3.5%
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Well, first off - you're right, it's not 15% - I think I forgot to divide by 2 somewhere, and it's more like 7-9% (I was just approximating)
I think it's 3.5% if you flop 2 to a suit, but you flop a 3-flush like 60% of the time, then hit runner-runner another 5%, so my 2nd approximation is like 7%.
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gingerwizard
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 1,815
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I flopped a royal flush at $10NL once calling a UTG raise from the BB with  .
I checked, he checked behind!
I bet the turn he folded.
Profit = $0.85
High rollers look out below
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This is not my signature. I just write this at the bottom of every post.
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bigspenda73
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Pwnsylvania
Posts: 7,545
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by zenbitz
Quote:
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Originally Posted by bigspenda73
making a flush with 2 suited hole cards is not a 15% chance zen. I think it's more around 5%. You only flop a flush draw 10% of the time dawg. So actually it's more like 3.5%
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Well, first off - you're right, it's not 15% - I think I forgot to divide by 2 somewhere, and it's more like 7-9% (I was just approximating)
I think it's 3.5% if you flop 2 to a suit, but you flop a 3-flush like 60% of the time, then hit runner-runner another 5%, so my 2nd approximation is like 7%. |
No, it's 3.5% nowhere near 7%
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zenbitz
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 2,911
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I got this off da intaweb so it must be true:
Flush Odds
You have a 3.3-1 (24%) chance of being dealt any two suited cards. If you have two suited cards, the probability of:
# Making a flush by the river: 15-1 (6.4%)
# Flopping a flush: 118-1 (0.84%)
# Flopping a flush draw (two cards of the matching suit on the flop): 8.1-1 (10.9%)
# Making a flush by the river when you flop a flush draw: 1.9-1 (35%)
# Making a flush on the turn when you flop a flush draw: 4.2-1 (19%)
# Making a flush on the river when you have a flush draw on the turn: 4.1-1 (20%)
# Flopping a backdoor flush draw (one card of the matching suit on the flop): 1.4-1 (41.6%)
# Making a flush by the river when you flop a backdoor flush draw: 23-1 (4.2%)
# Hitting a flush on the river when you have a flush draw on the turn: 4.1-1 (20%)
If you have two unsuited cards, the probability of:
# Making a flush by the river: 53-1 (1.8%)
# Flopping a flush draw (three cards of the matching suit on the flop): 88-1 (1.1%)
# Flopping a backdoor flush draw (two cards of the matching suit on the flop): 6.8-1 (12.8%)
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sunnyday
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Join Date: May 2007
Posts: 23
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have found the probability for flush from 2 suited by river confirmed to be 6.4% with many sources.
also i have found the reason why that calculation by zenbitz dont come out with that number.
the 7flush calculation is correct:
(11*10*9*8*7) / (50*49*48*47*46) =0.02181%
for 6flush you had the right idea but missed a term:
(you suggested: 5 * ( 11*10*9*8) / (50*49*48*47)
should be: 5 * (39*11*10*9*8) / (50*49*48*47*46) = 0.6074 %
similar problem with 5flush
2 more terms and it comes to:
10 * (39*38*11*10*9) / (50*49*48*47*46) = 5.771 %
total: 0.02181% + 0.6074 % + 5.771 % = 6.4%
voila
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Lithium
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Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 79
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by holdin2
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Lithium
(not over the money, I don't get excited when I win $1000 pots).
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Was this little (not-so-veiled brag) tidbit necessary? Hmmm?
Kind of a given anyone gets excited over flopping a royal. |
Maybe not, but it does give some context as to what a rush it was for me compared to winning big pots.
And I figure anyone that plays poker for any period of time has had their share of big wins and losses, so it really isn't much of a brag.
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