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Flush Draw..or call to push?

  
 
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kidsoldja
Old 06-14-2010, 04:35 PM     Post subject: Flush Draw..or call to push? #1 (permalink)  
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 No reads..I was playing 5 tables so dont know much about villian cept he seems solid.
Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players


BTN: $4.39
SB: $13.05
Hero (BB): $10.87
UTG: $10.15
MP: $24.40
CO: $10.17

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BB with Ah Jh
UTG raises to $0.30, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) Kh 2d 2h (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $0.55, BTN folds, Hero raises to $1.50, UTG calls $0.95

Turn: ($3.95) 3c (2 players)
Hero bets $3, UTG raises to $8.35 all in

Hero????
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villagenut
Old 06-14-2010, 05:49 PM #2 (permalink)  
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im certainly no pro but i'll throw my 2 cents in...

on the flop
His range certainly includes a K and you are either folding OR calling on implied odds, someone else will have to do the math.

i see no reason to bet the turn here. c/c maybe

As played, looks to me like your pot committed..
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Hoopy
Old 06-14-2010, 05:53 PM #3 (permalink)  
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Hoopy is an unknown quantity at this point
 Put him on a range and play less tables to get better reads.

I'd probably fold pre flop.
 
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NightGizmo
Old 06-14-2010, 07:22 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Calling preflop looks good to me.

Why did you raise the flop? If you think he's a solid player, then give him a solid UTG PFR range: TT+, AQ+, AQs+, maybe KQs. How much of that do you think he'll actually fold? Probably only the AQ/AQs, maybe the KQs if he thinks you're solid. Your raise fails as a bluff and you don't have enough equity as a value bet. I think you should have just called the flop, since you have enough equity vs. his range to continue.

On the turn after the c/r, I think you should have checked, hoping for a check behind and a free card. As played, with the range I listed above, you need to call 5.35 to win 15.30:

Board: Kh 2d 2h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.380% 24.38% 00.00% 354 0.00 { AhJh }
Hand 1: 75.620% 75.62% 00.00% 1098 0.00 { TT+, KQs, KQo }

Looks like a fold. Even if you add back in the AQ hands, he still has you beat 72% of the time.
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tomato paste carnage
Old 06-14-2010, 07:57 PM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kidsoldja View Post
No reads..I was playing 5 tables so dont know much about villian cept he seems solid.








Anyways, this is a good spot to fold. You're not hitting your flush enough to make this profitable. The following is from spoon's thread about calling all-ins: How To: Analyze Calling An All-in

EV = (our equity)(pot size) - (our opponents equities)(bet size)
EV = (.244)(15.3) - (.756)(5.35)
= 3.73 - 4.04
= -0.31

Hope I did the maffs right.
Tilt is poker cancer. You catch it, you die.
 
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settecba
Old 06-14-2010, 08:10 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tomato paste carnage View Post








Anyways, this is a good spot to fold. You're not hitting your flush enough to make this profitable. The following is from spoon's thread about calling all-ins: How To: Analyze Calling An All-in

EV = (our equity)(pot size) - (our opponents equities)(bet size)
EV = (24.4)(15.3) - (75.6)(5.35)
= 373.32 - 404.46
= -31.14

Hope I did the maffs right.
Think about it logically. How can you lose 31.14 on average when you are only calling 5.35?

24.4 and 75.6 are percentages, so change them to 0.244 and 0.756 in your equation.
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Getting good at poker is like that scene in the matrix where Neo suddenly sees that everyone is just a bunch of structured numbers and then he starts bending those numbers in really weird ways.
 
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tomato paste carnage
Old 06-14-2010, 08:19 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by settecba View Post
Think about it logically. How can you lose 31.14 on average when you are only calling 5.35?

24.4 and 75.6 are percentages, so change them to 0.244 and 0.756 in your equation.
Yeah, looks like I went full retard there for a minute.
Tilt is poker cancer. You catch it, you die.
 
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Imthenewfish
Old 06-14-2010, 10:28 PM #8 (permalink)  
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If he actually is solid folding pre isn't bad at all. You semi-bluff when you are trying to win the pot because you have fold equity, but have equity if you're called, so if we raise turn it's because we think we can get him to fold BETTER hands. pretty much the only better hands we're folding out are pp's, and it's doubtfull that he's going to be barreling with that part of his range. I think this point pretty much holds even more true after he called your flop bet. Only real reason to bet the turn is as a blocking bet, in which case I think your bet should be about 2.30, and obviously it's a fold as played.
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spoonitnow
Old 06-14-2010, 11:23 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by settecba View Post
Think about it logically. How can you lose 31.14 on average when you are only calling 5.35?

24.4 and 75.6 are percentages, so change them to 0.244 and 0.756 in your equation.
lol i know right
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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