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Flopping bottom set on a straight board..

  
 
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freeucm
Old 09-19-2007, 04:59 PM     Post subject: Flopping bottom set on a straight board.. #1 (permalink)  

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freeucm
a.8 9 J

You hold 88.


b.7 8 9

You hold 77


1.a b Villian bets into you on flop. You opt to call/reraise
Checks on turn. Do we bet to define hand and not give him a free card, check and keep pot small to see what river brings in case of being outrivered or already out flopped.

1. a b Villian check raises you on flop.
You opt to call, turn is a blank and fired into.


River is a blank..You are bet into.
8 9 j 4 3 Do we flat call in case of a higher set and/or flopped straight

River pairs the board with js. you are shoved into.

8 9 j 2 j

On both these hands we checked turn/ or bet whichever and were called.

If my sceneirios dont make sense please just make a line you would most likely play these hands with bottom set, on a straight board, blank turn, and paired river or none pair.

Thanks

38 sets of hands beat us on flop whenever we flop bottom set with a straight on board.


Lets assume we are 150+ bb's deep in cash.

30xbb stacked in middle tourney with about 100-200 blinds
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Deanglow
Old 09-19-2007, 05:09 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Pre-flop is important in these.
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freeucm
Old 09-19-2007, 05:16 PM #3 (permalink)  

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freeucm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deanglow
Pre-flop is important in these.

Okay you called a preflop raise from a 3rd-5th position player and were called by someone behind you, and raised 3-4x from late position and were called by Button and the blinds. 3rd one limpers..

So 3 players in 1st one , 4 in 2nd one (including you). If i make it heads up I think it would get more "just shove" responses so ill do that thanks.


We will assume all players are 25% flops seen. I dont believe preflop is as important as post flop in these ev- situations as post flop is because players raise with any 2, call raises from blinds with any 2 and limp with any 2, especially 25%
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Ghaleon
Old 09-19-2007, 05:50 PM #4 (permalink)  
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This post confuses me. It's not clear to me exactly what is being asked.

All I know is that when I flop 3 of a kind - top, bottom, or middle - I'm going to bet it hard most of the time. Unless I think I can trap a guy, I'm betting about 3/4 of the pot if I'm first, and raising anybody who bets in front of me.

Like Dean said, I would have to go back to the pre-flop play. Limps and calls of small raises in position might make suspect that someone is drawing to either a straight or a flush.

If your opponent misses the flop, or doesn't have the odds to draw, he is going to fold. Of course, there is always the chance that he will call without the odds and donk-out on you, but you can't be worrying about that.

If he calls with a draw - You're going to win 2/3 of the time
If he calls with top pair, or top two pair - You're going to win 85% of the time
And if he has a made straight or flush, you're still about 25 - 30% to make your full-house or quads.

Considering how often someone is going to flop a made straight, I can't see myself laying down a set with any kind of frequency.
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freeucm
Old 09-19-2007, 06:06 PM #5 (permalink)  

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freeucm
7 outs/45 is about 14% chance to make your quads or boat up, 10 on the turn, 10/44 23% we are way behind, if OOP shoves flop I dont think this is a snap call to be honest. Draws arent shoving and if they are they shouldnt be lets put him on at least two pair, 2 set, straight and run it into the poker calculator its actually a ev- situstion
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Ghaleon
Old 09-19-2007, 06:20 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Depends on the table stakes I guess. At lower buy-ins I would not be surprised to see someone shove with JT into a J89 flop.

I dont' see how its -EV. I think the range of calls here includes top pair, two pair, and 1pair with a draw. We are ahead of all of those hands. We are only behind a bigger set and a made straight.

I wouldn't insta-shove after the flop since I'm only getting called by a made straight or bigger set most of the time. But I would certainly bet it hard. A call or re-raise would really help narrow down my opponents range. If the turn came and increased the straight possibilities, then I would definitely slow down.

But seriously, you were in the hand in the first place to make a set and you've made it.
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freeucm
Old 09-19-2007, 06:37 PM #7 (permalink)  

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freeucm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghaleon
Depends on the table stakes I guess. At lower buy-ins I would not be surprised to see someone shove with JT into a J89 flop.

I dont' see how its -EV. I think the range of calls here includes top pair, two pair, and 1pair with a draw. We are ahead of all of those hands. We are only behind a bigger set and a made straight.

I wouldn't insta-shove after the flop since I'm only getting called by a made straight or bigger set most of the time. But I would certainly bet it hard. A call or re-raise would really help narrow down my opponents range. If the turn came and increased the straight possibilities, then I would definitely slow down.

But seriously, you were in the hand in the first place to make a set and you've made it.
Thats like saying you were in a hand with 25 suited and made your flush, what would u do on turn if a blank came every check behind? Of couse this would be a lot harder OOP. He can very well be slowplaying a flopped straight, less likely a set.
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Miffed22001
Old 09-19-2007, 07:17 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 dont fold a set with only 100bbs behind without a very good reason. A 3straight board is not one.
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Taxi
Old 09-19-2007, 08:00 PM #9 (permalink)  
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Seriously PokerStove is not that hard to use:
(edit: OK the board is different from what you said but I'm not Stoving these hands again.)
You have bottom set, Opp has 2pr, higher set or straight only (rainbow board) your a 46/54 dog:-not bad if you think of dead money, and the possibility they could be bluffing:
157,410 games 0.005 secs 31,482,000 games/sec

Board: 5h 6d 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.850% 44.20% 01.65% 69568 2604.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 54.150% 52.50% 01.65% 82634 2604.00 { 77-66, 98s, 75s+, 65s, 43s, 98o, 75o+, 65o, 43o }


----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Opp has 2pr, higher set, straight, nut straight draw only, your 52/48 ahead!
210,870 games 0.016 secs 13,179,375 games/sec

Board: 5h 6d 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.131% 50.62% 01.51% 106748 3180.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 47.869% 46.36% 01.51% 97762 3180.00 { 88-66, 98s, 87s, 75s+, 65s, 43s, 98o, 87o, 75o+, 65o, 43o }

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

His range is possibly also include AA KK etc:
Opp has 2pr, higher set, straight, straight draw, overpair, and your 57/43 ahead.
246,510 games 0.016 secs 15,406,875 games/sec

Board: 5h 6d 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 57.372% 55.73% 01.64% 137384 4044.00 { 55 }
Hand 1: 42.628% 40.99% 01.64% 101038 4044.00 { KK+, 88-66, 98s, 87s, 75s+, 65s, 43s, 98o, 87o, 75o+, 65o, 43o }

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I know this is an overly simplistic way of looking at it, cus there is much more things to think about, reads etc, or I haven't factored in if Opp would play this w a flush draw, but just play around w PokerStove, its fun!
I also havent factored in whether one particular hand is more likely then the other, but you get the picture, your not that far behind, if at all with bottom set on the these boards.
Reads come in useful too, if Opp is an over-aggro donk, get it in - if Opp is a super weak tight nit, then think twice, etc etc.

But of course Miffed puts it so much better!!
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WildBobAA
Old 09-19-2007, 08:37 PM #10 (permalink)  
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always fold sets
 
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Taxi
Old 09-19-2007, 08:50 PM #11 (permalink)  
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lol
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bigspenda73
Old 09-20-2007, 01:22 PM #12 (permalink)  
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 like I would fold AA on a QKA board because everyone plays JT like all the time without fail cuz of Negraneau. Not sure about this one though, like 77 as a set is so much stronger than AA as a set cuz it's unlikely that someone else has the 4th 7 so you can make quads easier, in NL someone always has an Ace so I'd just muck like AA on the QKA board because of reverse implied odds and you'll have no outs to improve and you are behind like 95% of the time, I mean, I could pokerstove it, but I've already seen the results before, so just take my word.
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Ghaleon
Old 09-20-2007, 08:28 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by freeucm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ghaleon
Depends on the table stakes I guess. At lower buy-ins I would not be surprised to see someone shove with JT into a J89 flop.

I dont' see how its -EV. I think the range of calls here includes top pair, two pair, and 1pair with a draw. We are ahead of all of those hands. We are only behind a bigger set and a made straight.

I wouldn't insta-shove after the flop since I'm only getting called by a made straight or bigger set most of the time. But I would certainly bet it hard. A call or re-raise would really help narrow down my opponents range. If the turn came and increased the straight possibilities, then I would definitely slow down.

But seriously, you were in the hand in the first place to make a set and you've made it.
Thats like saying you were in a hand with 25 suited and made your flush, what would u do on turn if a blank came every check behind? Of couse this would be a lot harder OOP. He can very well be slowplaying a flopped straight, less likely a set.
Again, I'm not sure exacty what is your point. I wouldn't play 25 suited to make a flush, or anything for that matter. However, some donkeys out there would, and when they make the flush they are going to bet it.

When you say "he can very well be slowplaying a flopped straight", what is your point? When someone limps into the pot, they could be slowplaying aces. Does that mean you should not raise with your Kings?

The example you gave was with 88. If you're playing those cards for set value, then you have to play them that way. You're probably never going to flop top set with 88 and not have a straight draw out there. So why would you worry about the straight more when your 8's make bottom set?
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drmcboy
Old 09-20-2007, 09:29 PM #14 (permalink)  
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