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FLOP ODDS CALCULATION!

  
 
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Aceblack
Old 01-31-2005, 02:02 PM     Post subject: FLOP ODDS CALCULATION! #1 (permalink)  

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Aceblack
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Hi all,

Can someone tell me if the following calculation is correct.

is the chance of hitting a pair on the flop 60% of the showdown odds.

eg AA v KK

AA=81%
KK=18%

1% split


since the flop is only 60% of the final showdown hands

flop = 3 cards final showdown=5 cards 3/5=60%

thefore is it correct to say

18/100=0.18
0.18X60=10.8%

is the a 10.8% chance of hitting a king on the flop?

is this correct?

is there a formula?
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koolmoe
Old 01-31-2005, 02:16 PM #2 (permalink)  
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koolmoe
No, it's actually higher than 10.8%, particularly if you know your opponent has AA. There are two cards that help you, so the probability of not spiking a K on the flop is:

(46*45*44)/(48*47*46) = 0.8777

So the probability of spiking a K is 1-0.8777 = 0.1223.

If you don't know your opponent's holding, your probability is 0.1175.
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