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Flop decision @NL10

  
 
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BLURI
Old 09-12-2010, 01:44 PM     Post subject: Flop decision @NL10 #1 (permalink)  
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Good evening!


I've been reading lots of posts lately in this forum, and especially the blogs hade made quite an impression on me. Many of the players seem to have a huge experience from poker and it would be nice to learn some more from you. That's why i thought that it would be nice to be a member too.



The villain is 18/12 over just 35 hands and i haven't seen him doing anything special just raise a couple hands pre flop and once 3-bet from the SB.

When he calls from the SB after one already calling from the button, his range probably is a little bit wider and consists more of suited connectors and one gappers. His range: All suited broadways(except AQs and AKs), KJ+, A7s+, 22-JJ, 56s+ and 79s+

Flop: When he C/R's me on the flop i narrow his range to: JJ (quite unlikely as i have the J of spades), 88, 9Ts, KTs, QJs

Here's the hand in raw format, as i can't transform this via converter.

Full Tilt Poker Game #23831454563: Table Pivot (6 max) - $0.05/$0.10 - No Limit Hold'em - 08:12:50 ET - 2010/09/12
Seat 1: janeeboy ($10.45)
Seat 2: Devilhand100 ($9.90)
Seat 3: Bartja ($10.77)
Seat 4: Moricedu ($10.45)
Seat 5: BirdBV ($10)
Seat 6: HERO ($10.15)
Moricedu posts the small blind of $0.05
BirdBV posts the big blind of $0.10
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Js As]
HERO has 15 seconds left to act
HERO raises to $0.40
janeeboy folds
Devilhand100 folds
Bartja calls $0.40
Moricedu has 15 seconds left to act
Moricedu calls $0.35
BirdBV folds
BirdBV adds $0.10
*** FLOP *** [Qs Jh 8s]
Moricedu checks
HERO bets $0.75
Bartja has 15 seconds left to act
Bartja folds
Moricedu raises to $2.50
HERO...?


I tend to get too excited in these spots and just 3 bet shove without thinking that much. Often when the chips are in the middle i see myself as an underdog.

Would a call in this spot be terrible? If i hit my flush i'll shove otherwise fold.
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Donachello
Old 09-12-2010, 03:50 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($10.45)
CO ($9.90)
Button ($10.77)
SB ($10.45)
BB ($10)
Hero (UTG) ($10.15)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J, A
Hero bets $0.40, 2 folds, Button calls $0.40, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.30) Q, J, 8 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, SB raises to $2.50

Total pot: $2.80
[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven
[00:30] <DC> on my hand?
[00:30] <daven> yep
[00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
[00:30] <daven> nice reason
[00:30] <daven> no further questions
[00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

Problem officer...?
 
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Donachello
Old 09-12-2010, 03:56 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I'm never folding this ever. You could make an argument for flatting and seeing a turn IP with the NFD. Even if you get it in here vs. a range of ONLY sets you still have 30% equity.

Add in QJ and your equity actually jumps to 37%
Add in AQ and KQ and you equity gets into the 40% range. So if he ever has any sort of draw or a weaker J here you are getting the money in ahead. I'd probably just shove.
[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven
[00:30] <DC> on my hand?
[00:30] <daven> yep
[00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
[00:30] <daven> nice reason
[00:30] <daven> no further questions
[00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

Problem officer...?
 
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BLURI
Old 09-12-2010, 08:27 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Well it seems like we're quite often small dogs, though even in the worst case we still have 30% chance to win.

Btw when is it possible to use the hand converter?
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philly and the phanatics
Old 09-12-2010, 09:23 PM #5 (permalink)  
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philly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the roughphilly and the phanatics is a jewel in the rough
 so much dead money in pot that i shovel for sure

fwiw i would leave in suited ak and suited aq until you see him 3bet them a couple of times, some people just never squeeze so even if they have a decent 3b % they may not in this situation, so id def leave those in his preflop calling range (or at least some combos (maybe half)).
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Tasha
Old 09-13-2010, 06:04 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 I think I can see why it is good to call this. The pot odds are 2.1:1 (32%) and your odds to complete the flush are about 36%.
But why is it a good idea to raise or even shove?

Even at 40% equity is it +EV to shove?

The cut-off would be:

0 = 40%(B+P) - 60%(B)
60%(B) = 40%(B+P)
20%(B) = 40%(P)
P = 3.8
40%(3.8) = 1.52
1.52 * 5 = 7.6

The pot stands at 3.80 and Hero has $9 left to bet with.

EV = (.4) x (3.80 + 9) - (.6) x (9) = 5.12 - 5.4 = -0.28?

Also, there is the whole fold equity thing that needs to be factored in as well isn't there?
I'm not quite sure how to do that but the details are here: How to analyze all-in
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parislad
Old 09-13-2010, 07:40 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Is it ever good to check the flop here 3way? My thinking being that, while we do have lots of equity on the flop, we only get money in against better hands don't we? In any case I don't like the bet size, it just induces a raise from a Queen - $1.10 seems better - then Queens (excl. 2pairs) might feel just calling is ok.
Assumption is the mother of all fuck ups
 
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StarGrinder
Old 09-13-2010, 08:12 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 Oh for the love of fast food, don't ever call here unless villain is a donating drooler. You've got decent odds to hit and there's a chance he's drawing to a worse flush or even has KJ. I'm getting it in here and not feeling bad about it.
 
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BLURI
Old 09-15-2010, 05:57 PM #9 (permalink)  
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BLURI
Appreciate the feedback!

It's nice to get to hear different points of view.
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