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FD into combo draw

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Donachello

01-30-2010, 02:25 AM Post subject: FD into combo draw

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Dec 2009

Location: TROLOLOLOLOL

Posts: 849

Donachello will become famous soon enough

Villain was a TAGGy player who seemed prone to 3betting me. Looking back at his stats he was an 8.35% 3bettor which is a little high imo.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (4 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (Button) ($5.08)
SB ($5.02)
BB ($9.93)
UTG ($4.27)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K

, Q

1 fold, Hero bets $0.20, SB raises to $0.80, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.60

I don't call KQs facing a 3bet all the time but I feel like this guy had been 3betting me specifically so I wanted to play a pretty solid hand in position against a kind of uncertain range. I would guess maybe something like AJ+ 99+ I don't know if there are any real bluffy hands in his range so it might be pretty strong.

Flop: ($1.65) 6

, J

, 7

(2 players)
SB bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

I realize I should probably raise this flop. In fact, I almost definitely should have raised this flop but having position I just wanted to see a turn to see if I could pick up my flush or a better draw. Also, I didn't raise here because I think the pot might have become an awkward size, let's say I raised to 1.90 and he calls then the pot is going to be 4.70 with only 2.50 behind for a turn jam if he checked to me.

Turn: ($3.45) 10

(2 players)
SB bets $3.32 (All-In) Hero ????

Hurray for combo draws. However, when he open shoves I'm kind of in a tough spot. Vs the range previously stated I am about a 2:3 dog which would make this a -EV call. If I were to include a couple bluffs in his hand it becomes a lot closer.

Just wanted to see what other people thought of how the hand went down.

[00:29] <daven> dc, why not check turn behind
[00:30] <DC> daven
[00:30] <DC> on my hand?
[00:30] <daven> yep
[00:30] <DC> because I am drunk
[00:30] <daven> nice reason
[00:30] <daven> no further questions
[00:30] <yaawn> ^^Lol

Problem officer...?

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Outlaw

01-30-2010, 02:31 AM

#2 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Nov 2007

Posts: 1,033

What is his raise steal stat? If his raw 3-bet is 8% I bet he is raising steals 15%+. I would 4-bet here very often.

I shove the flop imo.

Miffed22001

01-30-2010, 02:15 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!

Posts: 8,181

im raising the flop and getting the bet size right to call a shove.
At worst he has AA/KK and your drawing to 9 outs but you could be drawing to 12 live outs vs QQ plus the fact that you might have sets and big combo draws here at other times you raise the flop

shallam

01-30-2010, 02:35 PM

#4 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: May 2005

Posts: 98

-----PREFLOP. KhQh
If I know that my opp is 3 betting light, I will tend to either a) raise or fold with a tighter range; or b) limp more. While KQs is a solid hand and typically supports a PFR there is nothing wrong with limping this hand if you will get to see a cheap flop -- in position.

You choose to PFR 4BB and get a large PFReR 16BB. Yuck! This puts us in a tricky position where we fear both getting bluffed and being up against a monster. That's a very big ReR. I'd be inclined to fold, but I can more than understand calling.

-----THE FLOP. 6h, Jh, 7s

He makes a big bet into you. Wow!, what a tough spot. Well, let's do a little analysis here to try to figure out where we are at. If he has the hand he's representing -- a big pair we have 9-12 outs, if he has a hand like AK or AQ we have 12 outs, if he has a hand like TT we have 15 outs, he could also have a hand like AhJh but that seems unlikely. Let's be conservative and estimate that we have 10 outs which is 40% equity. With implied odds this justifies a call.

But what if he is on a bluff, which seems reasonable based on the your comments. In that case we should go all in. I personally like to play cautiously and I would probably just call...however I have the eerrie feeling that the right play it to go all in. Notice that if we go all in and have 11% or more fold equity we are over 50% to win (an incomplete analysis of course ). Either calling or going all in is justified.

You decide to call.

-----THE TURN. Ts

Your opp goes all in. Wow. It's difficult for me imagine turn circumstances that would make your decision harder than this. Wow. I really hate playing for all my money on a draw. YUCK! Nevertheless I think we need to analyze this and try to make the right decision.

Some of the worst hands for us would be hands like AA, JJ or AhTh against which we still have 30% equity. Against a hand like AJ or 99 we were about 45%. We shouldn't be worse than 2 to 1 against his range. We are getting almost exactly 2 to 1 call. I think we are supposed to call. YUCK!

This is a VERY interesting hand because you have tricky decisions at nearly very point. Even PF. I can't wait to read what others say!

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FD into combo draw

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