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IowaSkinsFan
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07-12-2005, 05:52 PM
Post subject: extremely strange odd question
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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lets say I'm at a ten person table in a ring game. my stack has soared to about 7x the buy in. I'm the big blind and the short stack UTG goes all in, consecutively with only stack varyin.g little to the short one go all in, 4 total. It's to me and i'm last to act and i look to find 76s.
my question is, do i have good enough odds to put my money in? and if not how many players would have to do this to make me have good odds to go all in?
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Sed
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Wastin' away again in margaritaville....
Posts: 1,102
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Suited connectors are hands that make their money off of implied odds... with everyone all-in, you have no implied odds.
I am not certain what you would need for the odds to make sense to call but I think it would have to be bigger than that. If it was something huge like 9:1 odds, you might have the odds to call. But, do you really want that amount of variance? I prefer to let some other numnut get lucky and take his stack the old fashioned way...
- sed
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No fear, go deep or go home!
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Rondavu
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 3,053
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Not in a ring game. This call would be an elimination attempt in a tournament, if and when you decide to take that upon yourself (usually at a final table or at the bubble point). There's no reason to race with 76s unless you want to gamble. I prefer to let a loose player like this build up lucky on other players at the table and then rape him for a lot more when he makes an inevitable mistake. That's a better plan.
As one person stated earlier, this is a hand you call a raise with if you can destack someone with a lot of money by hitting hard. It's an implied odds hand all day long.
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It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.
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Greedo017
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
Posts: 1,461
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the odds of you winning actually stay around 20%, regardless of how many people are in the hand, assuming no one is massacring your outs (ie two higher of your suit), you'd need probably 6 people to make this worth it and even then i'd probably fold.
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Greedo017
the odds of you winning actually stay around 20%
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Really? I thought it was closer to 10%, assuming you see the river. You're 5% to make a hand on the flop. My math granted draws that when combined hit around another 5% by the river.
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IowaSkinsFan
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 7,148
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I'm assuming two pair, 3 of a kind, a straight or a flush will win (maybe not two pair). It seems like there is around a 20% chance of that happening, any odds guy want to come.
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by IowaSkinsFan
I'm assuming two pair, 3 of a kind, a straight or a flush will win (maybe not two pair). It seems like there is around a 20% chance of that happening, any odds guy want to come.
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I don't know that you can assume that with 6 people in with you. I'll play with the numbers some tomorrow and report back.
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Greedo017
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: wearing the honors of honor and whatnot
Posts: 1,461
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my number is very rough. its assuming like AK, JJ, KQ, 55. some assortment of hands like those. and your odds of winning come out around 20%. changing them around doesn't really kill your odds too much, even if ak is aa, your odds are about the same. adding 89s of your suit though drops your odds to 12%. i could experiment more but its easier for someone else to figure out than for me to just punch in a bunch of random hands.
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i betcha that i got something you ain't got, that's called courage, it don't come from no liquor bottle, it ain't scotch
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JeffreyGB
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: Jenks, OK
Posts: 3,477
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My math, assuming two pair or better on the flop holds up, but nothing below that improves (bad assumption, I know):
Also, I used the percentages calculated in http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ghlight=sticky
Code:
flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing EACH of your hole cards 2.02%
flopping EXACTLY trips by flopping two cards to one hole card 1.347%
flopping EXACTLY a full house, trips of one hole card and pairing the other 0.092%
flopping EXACTLY four of a kind, three cards to one of your hole cards 0.01%
flopping a straight (including the slight chance of a straight flush in some cases) 1.306% = 1.306 * 99.158 = 1.295
flopping a flush (including the slight chance of a straight flush in some cases) 0.842% = 0.842 * 98.604 = 0.83
Total: 5.594%
flopping a four flush => it holding up 10.944% = 9.8 => 3.3%
flopping an 8 out straight draw => it holding up 10.449% = 9.305 => 2.81682%
flopping sf draw => it holding up 10.944 * .10449 = 1.144 => .598265
Summing all of that up says that with suited connectors you will end up with a flush/straight or FLOP two pair or better a total of 12.31% of the time. I would think that the times that flopping one pair or less develops into a killer hand would about cancel the amount of times two pair or better isn't the best hand.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by JeffreyGB
My math, assuming two pair or better on the flop holds up, but nothing below that improves (bad assumption, I know):
Also, I used the percentages calculated in http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...ghlight=sticky
Code:
flopping EXACTLY two pair by pairing EACH of your hole cards 2.02%
flopping EXACTLY trips by flopping two cards to one hole card 1.347%
flopping EXACTLY a full house, trips of one hole card and pairing the other 0.092%
flopping EXACTLY four of a kind, three cards to one of your hole cards 0.01%
flopping a straight (including the slight chance of a straight flush in some cases) 1.306% = 1.306 * 99.158 = 1.295
flopping a flush (including the slight chance of a straight flush in some cases) 0.842% = 0.842 * 98.604 = 0.83
Total: 5.594%
flopping a four flush => it holding up 10.944% = 9.8 => 3.3%
flopping an 8 out straight draw => it holding up 10.449% = 9.305 => 2.81682%
flopping sf draw => it holding up 10.944 * .10449 = 1.144 => .598265
Summing all of that up says that with suited connectors you will end up with a flush/straight or FLOP two pair or better a total of 12.31% of the time. I would think that the times that flopping one pair or less develops into a killer hand would about cancel the amount of times two pair or better isn't the best hand. |
you're forgetting that if you make three-of-a-kind after you flop a pair that hand is likely to hold up
so I'd give at least 15% chance of winning. It's worth calling 7 people. But at that point you'll have some guy with a suited connector in there somewhere, you just can't make 7 good hands. The other option: all the good hands cancel each other and you win with a pair.
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