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Extracting the maximum with a FH (10NL)

  
 
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Nakamura
Old 07-07-2009, 10:51 PM     Post subject: Extracting the maximum with a FH (10NL) #1 (permalink)  
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Nakamura is an unknown quantity at this point
 I'd like some comments on my bet-sizing with this hand. I'd only played a few hands with this guy so obvious reads (I have been working hard on keeping notes and gaining reads on players). His play suggests to me he likely has an A or a busted draw. Is potting the river a good idea?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($5.60)
SB ($1.90)
BB ($4.60)
UTG ($2)
UTG+1 ($10.65)
MP1 ($3.10)
MP2 ($10.90)
Hero (CO) ($10)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8, 8
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, 2 folds, BB checks

Flop: ($0.35) 8, A, 9 (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets $0.20, Hero raises to $0.60, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.55) 2 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $1.20, MP2 calls $1.20

River: ($3.95) A (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $4, 1 fold

Total pot: $3.95 | Rake: $0.15
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nish81
Old 07-08-2009, 11:05 AM #2 (permalink)  
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If it's a busted draw, he's folding to any decent bet on the river right? So you might as well get the most value out of Ax, assuming he'll call a psb on the river with Ax
<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.

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Lucothefish
Old 07-08-2009, 11:12 AM #3 (permalink)  
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 preflop is your biggest mistake here imo.
<@d0zer> how will you learn if I don't berate you harshly?
 
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WillburForce
Old 07-08-2009, 11:12 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 looks fine to me.

you bet every street - what more can you do?

the pot bet on the end is good. he'll look you up if he has an Ace - maybe even shove over. He's folding to any bet with a busted draw.

If he was calling down light with 9-x or something, the final Ace scares him off anyway.
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WillburForce
Old 07-08-2009, 11:13 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucothefish
preflop is your biggest mistake here imo.
raising from CO with 8-8 is good. Flatting is fine though.
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Old 07-08-2009, 11:15 AM #6 (permalink)  
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the worst bet sizing is preflop imo
you could pot the turn but the difference is not great and you do get a few more folds by potting it exactly
but $1.5 probably makes you 15 cents more on average (maybe like 2-3% more folds?) and 30 cents more on the river if he calls river

$1.6 is probably exactly pot and probably still makes you 15 cents more on average (we assume slightly more folds), but 50 more cents on the river if he calls river

so maybe potting the turn is better yet


it heavily depends on whether the guy is a reg and doesn't like getting potted twice and will fold a marginal ace because of your strong bet sizing
but obviously you should already have a read that this guy is a fish since he's OPEN LIMPING
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Illfavor
Old 07-08-2009, 01:57 PM #7 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WillburForce
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucothefish
preflop is your biggest mistake here imo.
raising from CO with 8-8 is good. Flatting is fine though.
I disagree, and would never ever limp behind here (barring a misclick).
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surviva316
Old 07-08-2009, 05:34 PM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Illfavor
Quote:
Originally Posted by WillburForce
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lucothefish
preflop is your biggest mistake here imo.
raising from CO with 8-8 is good. Flatting is fine though.
I disagree, and would never ever limp behind here (barring a misclick).
QFT. i don't know why you wanna turn 88 on the BU into a set mining hand. beating these limits is all about punishing limpers and picking up dead money, not praying that we get the perfect flop.
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Old 07-08-2009, 05:47 PM #9 (permalink)  
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limping behind is fine with 55
but 88 actually has good equity vs. his calling range

Hand 0: 57.733% { 88 }
Hand 1: 42.267% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, AQo-A9o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

Hand 0: 51.071% { 55 }
Hand 1: 48.929% { JJ-22, AQs-A2s, K9s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, 43s, AQo-A9o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }

so 55 is a flip, and raising would only get him to fold some of his hands and get blinds out
but 88 is raising for value

a lot of fish will peel with middle pair type hands on the flop so 88 will be good more often on average if you show it down
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