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Is this an example of correct implied odds?

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BankItDrew

04-06-2006, 06:43 PM Post subject: Is this an example of correct implied odds?

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I am dealt T8 in the bb and check in a multiway pot.
Flop comes 79A.
Checks to Button who bets pot, I call, everyone folds.
Turn is a blank, Button overbets pot.

Here's where I think I might be a donk:

Pot is $20. He bets $25. My % of hitting nuts are 16%. Assuming I hit my straight, would this be a justified call if my $25 is less than or equal to 16% of the final pot?

Thanks, just wanted to clear up the implied odds definition.

I did this lastnight and felt dirty after I stacked Button. I didn't check his hand... doh

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Fnord

04-06-2006, 06:47 PM

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With only 8 outs, how do you figure you have implied odds agaisnt his hand facing a pot sized bet on the turn? What where the stacks sizes? How'd you get it all-in on the river?

People gave me crap for making this call with like 15 outs....

Oh, and I often bet this flop.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

dpe8598

04-06-2006, 06:48 PM

#3 (permalink)

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It would be an extremely rare situation where this would be a good call. In fact, I think reraising him all in here is a better move (depending on chance you think he'll call). At least then you are taking down this pot with a higher percentage.

Either way, looks like to me, he knows you are chasing and is making you pay. You should fold here virtually every single time.

One final thing, you were out of position here. Did you check after hitting your hand? Otherwise did you push all in there. Being out of position also greatly decreased your odds. If you checked, he may very well check. If you bet hard, he may see the texture and fold. You have to consider all of this.

Anyway, your instinct is right. That was donk.

Fnord

04-06-2006, 06:51 PM

#4 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dpe8598

In fact, I think reraising him all in here is a better move (depending on chance you think he'll call).

People say stuff like this and I used to even try it. Chances are that when a typical 100NL or lower player plays a hand fast, you have very little fold equity and are better off playing it straight up because he won't be able to laydown when you hit.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

DonCoryon

04-06-2006, 06:51 PM

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Pot=$65, Your Call=$25
Pot Odds=2.6/1
Your odds of hitting your straight with one card is 4.6/1.

So yes you didn't have odds to draw to your straight. In order to use implied odds you have to be sure you are going to bet at least $50 (total of $115) on the river when you make your straight and he will pay it off. and that is just a break even proposition. It's stretching the implied odds theory but it could work.

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dpe8598

04-06-2006, 06:54 PM

#6 (permalink)

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Fnord, nah, calling 25 on a 20 board is definitely worse than just pushing. JMHO. Anyway, I wouldn't do either, I would just fold. I just think one is the lesser of 2 evils, but they are both evil, I think we agree on that.

Fnord

04-06-2006, 06:55 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by dpe8598

Fnord, nah, calling 25 on a 20 board is definitely worse than just pushing.

Umm... no... how often does he fold? I'm going with about 10%. Do the math, pushing is worse.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

dpe8598

04-06-2006, 07:09 PM

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With 10% fold rate you are definitely losing money here. Thats why I said it depends on your read. Some quick calculations in my head tell me you'd probably have to be about 40% sure he'd fold to make this move (depending on stack sizes).

So I agree, that would be a rare situation. Either way it really doesnt matter, the best move here is to fold.

Rondavu

04-06-2006, 07:28 PM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by dpe8598

In fact, I think reraising him all in here is a better move (depending on chance you think he'll call).

I've never been an advocate of doyle donking my draws at the levels we generally discuss. Less fold equity all around. In the MTT's I play, I make a lot of chips off people wearing their cowboy hat backwards, pushing all in on an 8/9 out draw when I'm sitting on top pair. It's gotten to the point of misguided hysteria.

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martindcx1e

04-07-2006, 06:49 AM

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Rondavu

I've never been an advocate of doyle donking my draws at the levels we generally discuss.

Doyle Donking haha - I LOVE it. Did you coin that? Sorry if I'm an idiot and it has been around for awhile, but I like that term alot. I just made a post about his extreme over-bets.

Wikipedia is the best thing ever. Anyone in the world can write anything they want about any subject. So you know you are getting the best possible information.

Rondavu

04-07-2006, 05:02 PM

#11 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by martindcx1e

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rondavu

I've never been an advocate of doyle donking my draws at the levels we generally discuss.

Doyle Donking haha - I LOVE it. Did you coin that? Sorry if I'm an idiot and it has been around for awhile, but I like that term alot. I just made a post about his extreme over-bets.

Ya I just made it up. Seemed fitting for the moment I guess.

It's not what's inside that counts. Have you seen what's inside?
Internal organs. And they're getting uglier by the minute.

SonOfAkira

04-09-2006, 01:49 PM

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"_________________
ONLINE RISK MANAGEMENT

Initial Deposit: $50 @ 10NL (December 29 2005)
Current Bankroll: $3,029 @ 50NL (April 8 2006)
Limit Jumping Goal: $5,000 @ 100NL"

Wow, way to go. I thought you were plateauing or even downswinging for a second there, for some reason. This is an awesome progression. How is 50 compared to 25 for you? Have you taken a shot at 100 yet, to break monotony? I really like the ultra-conservative 50 buyin jump, excellent patience.

[/i]

BankItDrew

04-10-2006, 05:29 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by SonOfAkira

I thought you were plateauing or even downswinging for a second there,

I DID have a downswing! Thursday and Friday I lost a combined 8 buy-ins. Thanks for the kind words again Akira. You are my favorite FTR member!

I'm having a lot harder time with 50NL compared to 25NL. @ 25NL, There seems to be a lot more people willing to pratically give you free money. 50NL is better postflop and tighter pre-flop.

I made about $500 or so on 50 since changing here 2 or 3 weeks ago. @ 25NL, I could have made that same amount in less time... so it's very frustrating. I feel comfortable, I'm just not yet dominating it. I think it's just the learning curve of moving up from micro to low limits.

Akira, please tell me how your progress has gone.

Fnord

04-10-2006, 05:38 PM

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LMAO, I'm up like $30 over my last 5k hands of 100NL.

Although, I've been playing in some tougher games recently and just plain running bad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

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Is this an example of correct implied odds?

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