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Ever okay to bluff a fish 100 VP$IP?

  
 
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dafu
Old 02-27-2010, 05:51 AM     Post subject: Ever okay to bluff a fish 100 VP$IP? #1 (permalink)  
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dafu
Villan is 100/18/33 in 14 hands. As you can see villan is very loose and fishy.
I doubled up when I had two pair he had only a pair of 4's with a 6 kicker (I was in the BB and he posted early).
I raised preflop, just to pick up the dead money in the pot he called (first hand against him). He called all the way down and even called all in with only a pair of 4's.
Over the next 13 hands he blew away a majority of his stack... but this is the hand I was going to ask about.

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 ($32.35)
CO ($26.05)
Button ($95.20)
SB ($79)
BB ($43.50)
Hero (UTG) ($95.10)
UTG+1 ($57.80)
MP1 ($40)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 10, A
Hero bets $6, 3 folds, CO calls $6, 3 folds

Flop: ($17) J, J, 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $17, 1 fold

Total pot: $17 | Rake: $0.85
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ljove
Old 02-27-2010, 12:36 PM #2 (permalink)  
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very nice played lol
keep up the good work
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JKDS
Old 02-27-2010, 04:56 PM #3 (permalink)  
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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Dex
Old 02-27-2010, 05:22 PM #4 (permalink)  
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Is this one of those Full Tilt shallow tables where the min is 20bb and the max 40bb? Seems so unappealing.

Instead of asking yourself how can you bluff a total station in general but especially on a JJ6r board where he has a psb behind and if he has anything, even pocket pairs, he's calling, ask yourself this:

"If villain is shortstacked and splashing around hoping to find a pot he can take down, how can I exploit this to gain the maximum possible?"

And if you ask yourself that question, you'll likely realise potting the flop is not the answer. If he folds you had the best hand, missed out on on getting value from worse and allowed him to play well by making him fold worse.
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spoonitnow
Old 02-27-2010, 06:20 PM #5 (permalink)  
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 If you shove, you probably have something like 10-15% equity against his calling range if he calls with jacks, pocket pairs, and 6x, but let's just say it's 10% for the sake of discussion. You're betting $20 when the pot is $17, when he calls the final pot will be about $54 after the rake, and you're getting about 10% of that back on average when he calls ($5.40), so your risk is only about $14.60. This means if he folds more than whatever 14.60/(14.60+17) is (about 46%) then shoving is +EV.

If you think shoving is +EV, then compare it to a check/call. Is he going to shove enough worse that check/calling is better than shoving? If you think shoving is -EV, and you think a check/call is -EV, then check/fold. Easy game.

Edit: Another option would be betting something like 1/6 pot if you think he'll shove over more worse hands than he'll bet with if you check, etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
 
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