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revolvingiris
Old 06-16-2009, 09:28 AM     Post subject: EV question #1 (permalink)  
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Hand 0: 31.974% { 64o }
Hand 1: 68.026% { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, A5o+, KJo+ }

I was getting over 2:1 to call. Do to recent posts I have been involved in. I cant figure out if this is a good call in the long run. Can someone help me out?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00+$0.20 Tournament, 1000/2000 Blinds 200 Ante (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button (t7164)
SB (t6202)
Hero (BB) (t33040)
UTG (t29131)
MP1 (t16796)
MP2 (t33827)
CO (t4360)

Hero's M: 7.51

Preflop: Hero is BB with 4, 6
4 folds, Button bets t6964 (All-In), 1 fold, Hero calls t4964

Flop: (t16328) K, 5, 5 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t16328) 9 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t16328) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: t16328[/b]
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Stacks
Old 06-16-2009, 10:05 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Stacks will become famous soon enoughStacks will become famous soon enough
 You have to call $4964 into what will be a $16328 pot. Therefore you need to have 30.4% equity to have a BE call. This is found by (bet) / (bet + pot), or $4964/$16328. Therefore, if your assumption of his range is correct, then yes, this is a +EV call. You can also work out the exact EV of the call, by using the formula EV = (equity)(total pot) - (amount to call).

EV = (equity)(total pot) - (amount to call)
EV = (0.31974)(16328) - (4964)
EV = (5220.71) - (4964)
EV = 256.71

So on average you expect to make approximately $257 chips with this play.

However, I would just like to go on record and say I have no idea about anything ICM related (anymore), and if that comes into play in these situations, then I could very likely be wrong.
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Stacks
Old 06-16-2009, 10:07 AM #3 (permalink)  
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Stacks will become famous soon enoughStacks will become famous soon enough
 Also, was this a SNG or MTT? You will get better responses if I move this to the appropriate forum, as the players are more experienced there with these situations.
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revolvingiris
Old 06-16-2009, 10:19 AM #4 (permalink)  
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This was an MTT, just figured it would help out more unexperienced players along with myself if it was in here.

Oh, and thanks stacks for answering my question.
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Old 06-16-2009, 11:15 AM #5 (permalink)  
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ICM basically comes into play when the prize is close
so if you can't fold into the money I wouldn't worry about it and just call

HOWEVER to break even in these tournaments you need to have a 10% edge to call
so you need to be winning ~500 chips with your play for it to be good from the standpoint of tournament fees
in general you need to be making plays that give you more than 10% ROI on your money
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revolvingiris
Old 06-16-2009, 12:15 PM #6 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
ICM basically comes into play when the prize is close
so if you can't fold into the money I wouldn't worry about it and just call

HOWEVER to break even in these tournaments you need to have a 10% edge to call
so you need to be winning ~500 chips with your play for it to be good from the standpoint of tournament fees
in general you need to be making plays that give you more than 10% ROI on your money
This is something I dont know a ton about but would really like to. I a have always been a tourney player so its about time I fully get this ICM thing down.

Can you explain this a little further please?
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Old 06-16-2009, 12:38 PM #7 (permalink)  
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http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...re-t36043.html
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revolvingiris
Old 06-18-2009, 01:32 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
HOWEVER to break even in these tournaments you need to have a 10% edge to call
so you need to be winning ~500 chips with your play for it to be good from the standpoint of tournament fees
in general you need to be making plays that give you more than 10% ROI on your money
This I dont understand at all. Even after going threw all the ICM stuff.
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spoonitnow
Old 06-18-2009, 02:46 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by revolvingiris
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
HOWEVER to break even in these tournaments you need to have a 10% edge to call
so you need to be winning ~500 chips with your play for it to be good from the standpoint of tournament fees
in general you need to be making plays that give you more than 10% ROI on your money
This I dont understand at all. Even after going threw all the ICM stuff.
It's because of the rake.
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Old 06-18-2009, 04:37 AM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by revolvingiris
Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
HOWEVER to break even in these tournaments you need to have a 10% edge to call
so you need to be winning ~500 chips with your play for it to be good from the standpoint of tournament fees
in general you need to be making plays that give you more than 10% ROI on your money
This I dont understand at all. Even after going threw all the ICM stuff.
say it's the first hand, and you have QQ
someone shoves and it folds to you
you think that against shove monkeys you have 60% equity because they might shove top 6% approx

let's assume you have the starting stack of x chips (I forgot if it's 1500 or 2000 or w/e)
the value of that stack is $2 but you paid $2.20 to get into the tournament
you will buy into another tournament if you lose and keep playing if you win

if you double up the value of your stack will be $4
ICM considerations don't apply because the value of each chip is about the same at this stage of the tournament

so you get +$1.8 when you win (60% of the time) and lose $2.20 if you lose (40% of the time)

.6 * 1.8 - 2.2 * .4 = $0.2

so you win 20 cents if someone is open shoving top 6% of hands and you call with queens (actually slightly more if you include the blinds)

but if you say have AKs which is 52% against that range we get:
.52 * 1.8 - 2.2 * .48 = -$.12
we LOSE 12 cents even though we're a favorite (actually we lose less because of the blinds)

I'd be able to do these more acurately of course if I knew what the starting blinds/chips were, but the idea is that to beat the rake you need to be getting it in with a 10% overlay so your hand should beat the pot odds offered by 5%
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revolvingiris
Old 06-18-2009, 08:40 PM #11 (permalink)  
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By a minimum of 5%?
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