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EV calculation correct?

  
 
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volcomizer
Old 10-03-2007, 07:09 PM     Post subject: EV calculation correct? #1 (permalink)  

Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4
volcomizer
100 BB stacks
preflop: SB raises 4BB; BB calls (8 BB)
flop 2d 6d Th

SB checks
BB bets 6 BB (14 BB)
SB raises 21 BB (35 BB)
BB goes all in 90 BB (125BB)
(SB calls 75BB and shows 2h2s ,BB shows KdJd)

Ranges:
assumptions: BB is aggressive player who will likely bet this flop with any pair or any draw
SB cr-range on flop: TT+,66,22,AdTd+ (total of 46 Hands)
SB call range on all-in: TT,66,22,AdTd (total of 19 hands)

against this range BB will loose 74.2% and win 25.8%
In 19/46 SB will call, 27/46 SB will fold.

EV calc. of the 90BB allin move by BB:
19/46*(-90BB*0.742 + 125BB*0.258) + 27/46*35BB = +6.28BB

Questions: given the ranges are my EV calculations for the 90 BB allin move of the BB correct?
The EV is positive but can we tell how profitable this move is ,given the range? So we risk a 90BB to win 6.28BB on average. Is this rather small or high or cant we really tell anything about this?
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taipan168
Old 10-04-2007, 02:27 AM #2 (permalink)  
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Hi and welcome to FTR, it's good to have you here. Couple of things:

- You have miscounted the number of hands because you have not taken out the cards already dealt on the flop. For example, on SB's all-in call range, there are only 10 ways (not 19) you can be dealt 22, 66, TT and AdTd since the Th is already on the flop. Similarly in SB's C-R range, you need to take out the Th from your calculations.

- I play tourneys (so I don't play with such deep stacks) but I would have thought that many players will stack off in SB's position with JJ+ and hands like KdTd as well as sets and AdTd.
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volcomizer
Old 10-04-2007, 03:26 PM #3 (permalink)  

Join Date: Jul 2007
Posts: 4
volcomizer
Hey, tnx for the remarks.
I did the calculations again and the outcome was a smaller positive EV

You mention you play tourneys. Have a question about that.

Take a SnG for example and we're in the first level. Everybody still has aproximately 100BBs. So lets presume that the above-mentioned action is slightly +EV.
You're the BB. Is this a good move?
No cause basically you put your "life" at risk on a risky draw with too little Folding equity, or yes because it's a (slightly) +EV-move.

Maybe bad example, but simplified: Is a +EV action in a SnG always a good move?
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