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Airles™
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02-14-2009, 06:32 PM
Post subject: Equity
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#1 (permalink)
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 317
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I suck at poker and I suck at math. Not a real good combination for a successful career in playing cards. But I'm willing to learn because I love the game. So, if anyone could help me with the following situation, that would be great. 
$1/2 NL Holdem
I have 9 8 and open raise to $7 from the CO. I then get re-popped by the BB for $25 from a 35/20 player who puts himself all-in. For the sake of this argument, he'll shove over with the top 20% of hands because he's short-stacked. This would be 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, and JTo. I have around 36% equity. Is this a call or fold? Why?
If I'm missing something here, let me know because I really don't know what I'm talking about.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
The solution to getting 1 outered is a simple one. We just need to find the site that is the least rigged.
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swiggidy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Waiting in the shadows ...
Posts: 3,777
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You have to call $18 (25-7)
There is $32 in the pot (25+7)
18 / (18 + 32) = 36%
So 0eV
I would fold, and make sure I'm raising hands that fair better vs his range.
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(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")
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luckbox1669
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by swiggidy
You have to call $18 (25-7)
There is $32 in the pot (25+7)
18 / (18 + 32) = 36%
So 0eV
I would fold, and make sure I'm raising hands that fair better vs his range.
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i would fold the odds r too low
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luckbox1669
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I too am awful at mathmatics
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luckbox1669
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its also a game of luck
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luckbox1669
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you should also prepare toooo........preparation
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Airles™
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 317
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Ok, same situation. He shoves $18 into the pot. Can I profitably call?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
The solution to getting 1 outered is a simple one. We just need to find the site that is the least rigged.
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Keith
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,336
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If he's a 35/20 player with a short stack is he going to be going all in 20% of the time or should you be considering a 3 bet stat? Could this be as high as 10% for a short stacker?
Any Ace + any pair also comes out at 20% and would give you more equity at about 41%
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Ragnar4
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Full House
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Billings, Montana
Posts: 1,284
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by swiggidy
You have to call $18 (25-7)
There is $32 in the pot (25+7)
18 / (18 + 32) = 36%
So 0eV
I would fold, and make sure I'm raising hands that fair better vs his range.
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Wait a minute, shouldn't we always be willing to stick it in cnsidering that it's a 0ev situation? I thought we were supposed to take all neutral to positive situations, and fold all negative situations.
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The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here? 
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Airles™
Ok, same situation. He shoves $18 into the pot. Can I profitably call?
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I'm assuming it's 200NL given your $7 raise size.
When you raise the pot is $10 ($7 + $2 + 1 [blinds]). Villains shoves his $18 into the pot. The pot is now $28, and you must call $11. To figure your needed equity I use the formula:
(amount to call) / (Pot + amount to call)
So here it is 11 / (28 + 11) or 11/39 = .282
Therefore, to have a breakeven call you need to have 28% equity against his range. Anything else then you have a +ev call, and anything less you have a -ev call.
You can also find the equity needed by doing it using a ratio. Such as there is $28 in the pot and you must call $11. Therefore you are gett 28:11 or 2.55:1. So you need 1 / (2.55 + 1) or 28% equity.
Anything else?
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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Also, I think 20% is likely a wide range for a generic shortstacker. So if you have reads/stats that he will do this then okay, but if not then I would tighten his range up a bit.
And what the hell? There isn't even freerolls this week.. Why the infestation?
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Keith
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Full House
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 1,336
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theres one tonight Stacks, I've got to let someone else win it this time as I'll be getting up whilst its still running as I'm working 5am tomorrow (UK time)
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swiggidy
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Waiting in the shadows ...
Posts: 3,777
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
And what the hell? There isn't even freerolls this week.. Why the infestation?
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There is one tonight LDO
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(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(")
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Airles™
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Flush
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 317
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by XxStacksxX
Quote:
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Originally Posted by Airles™
Ok, same situation. He shoves $18 into the pot. Can I profitably call?
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I'm assuming it's 200NL given your $7 raise size.
When you raise the pot is $10 ($7 + $2 + 1 [blinds]). Villains shoves his $18 into the pot. The pot is now $28, and you must call $11. To figure your needed equity I use the formula:
(amount to call) / (Pot + amount to call)
So here it is 11 / (28 + 11) or 11/39 = .282
Therefore, to have a breakeven call you need to have 28% equity against his range. Anything else then you have a +ev call, and anything less you have a -ev call.
You can also find the equity needed by doing it using a ratio. Such as there is $28 in the pot and you must call $11. Therefore you are gett 28:11 or 2.55:1. So you need 1 / (2.55 + 1) or 28% equity.
Anything else? |
Thanks Stacks. This is exactly what I was looking for.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Carroters
The solution to getting 1 outered is a simple one. We just need to find the site that is the least rigged.
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