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loonychune

02-10-2009, 10:51 PM Post subject: Easy fold.

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jan 2009

Posts: 145

Not seen much of villain except he's open limped a few hands. I think this is an easy fold, except I MIGHT have some equity - it'd be nice to discuss his hand range and what experience do you have of check/call, check/call, lead shove? How often might it be a bluff?

Pot Equity: 36%

Code:

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	63.235%  	61.76% 	01.47% 	           126 	        3.00   { 88+, 66 }
Hand 1: 	36.765%  	35.29% 	01.47% 	            72 	        3.00   { QQ }

Code:

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	53.750%  	52.50% 	01.25% 	           126 	        3.00   { 66+ }
Hand 1: 	46.250%  	45.00% 	01.25% 	           108 	        3.00   { QQ }

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($1.85)
MP2 ($10)
CO ($14.55)
Button ($11.05)
SB ($10)
Hero (BB) ($10)
UTG ($5.65)

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q

, Q

2 folds, MP2 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, MP2 calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.05) 6

, 9

, 8

(2 players)
Hero bets $0.80, MP2 calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.65) 2

(2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, MP2 calls $1.50

River: ($5.65) 4

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $7.20 (All-In), Hero calls $7.20 (All-In)

Total pot: $20.05 | Rake: $0.95

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Knytestorme

02-10-2009, 11:28 PM

#2 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2005

Location: Australia

Posts: 562

Well it wasn't a lead shove on the river which does make a difference.

His line plays like a straight draw (I'm going to put him on JT here) while your line looks a lot like AK with the undersized turn bet and river check that he thinks he can get you off the hand with the shove....snap call in this case

If however his line was c/c, c/c, shove I'd put him on 7T or a set from the flop and fold, that's why making the distinction in his actions makes a difference to the way this hand plays out

Carroters

02-10-2009, 11:40 PM

#3 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2008

Location: Da Amberlamps

Posts: 2,216

At micros I see sets played like this all the time. I wouldn't say you're hand looks particularly weak or much like AK. This is a terrible board for AK to be 2 barelling since he folds close to 0 hands on the turn that he calls with on this flop.

Honestly though he probably isn't even thinking along these lines anyway. I prolly fold because imo these limp calling stations are more likely to bet less on river with a missed sd or not at all. The shove just looks like a lot like a typically slow played micro player set.

Knytestorme

02-10-2009, 11:49 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: May 2005

Location: Australia

Posts: 562

I have to disagree there Carroters. For me OP's line is quite likely AK/AQ for the following reasons:

* Standard sized c-bet when first to act
* 1/2 pot-sized second barrel on the turn, typically for pot-control or a scared second barrel not wanting to risk a lot with a weak unmade hand
* Checking the river after barreling previous streets + pfr when no A/K/Q hit on the river and the flush missed in case OP had AK/AQs

I do agree that it would be a terrible board for a second barrel IF the second heart hadn't hit....now an AK/AQhh hand can be double-barreling with extra outs to the nf and again this is what makes the river check look so weak. Any hand with an over-pair to the board would have still barrelled the river with aabout $1.80-$2.50 valuebet. Do this and then we can talk about finding reasons to not fold to the shove.

Carroters

02-11-2009, 12:17 AM

#5 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2008

Location: Da Amberlamps

Posts: 2,216

The opp limp called in mp and this is 10NL - I highly doubt he is considering the value in dobule barrelling this turn card with AK AQ with added equity.

I still think double barelling on this drawy coordinated board that smacks limp callers in the face is bad regardless of whether you've picked up a flush draw sicne he never folds turn. We'd be better c/f this turn with AK/AQ and hoping for a free card because his range crushes us fd or no fd.

Also over pairs certainly don't have to bet the river mainly because theres no value left here. He either has a missed draw or has us beat the vast majority of the time. I don't mind a c/c or c/f - betting river would be bad unless we know hes a rediculous station that cant fold anything ever. Again though villain probably doesn't think along these line either.

You're decision to call is based upon what you would think if you were the villain and not what the bet actually means. Having said that, calling may be alright here if he's bluffy but not for the reasons you've specified. I fold because I play 20NL and from experience you're not normally good in this spot vs this type of passive player.

Carroters

02-11-2009, 12:26 AM

#6 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2008

Location: Da Amberlamps

Posts: 2,216

hmm actually thought there were 3 hearts out there for some reason there. Barelling turn would be alright with AKh or AQh but this is a very small part of Hero's range and certainly doesn't factor into the equation of villains thinking on river.

loonychune

02-11-2009, 01:15 AM

#7 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Jan 2009

Posts: 145

I'm actually only getting 42% pot equity, don't know where I went wrong before.

I think I actually like a turn bet that's gonna leave me about 35% equity by the river and then decide how likely it is he makes this play with a worse hand.

I think i'd need to be pretty confident that missed draws and the likes of 77 are in his shove range.

bigspenda73

02-11-2009, 01:59 AM

#8 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jul 2006

Location: Pwnsylvania

Posts: 7,545

bigspenda73 will become famous soon enough

I'd probably bet $2.50 on the river and go from there

your ranges are lacking a lot of possible hands he would limp/call with PF, at least up until the river. 67,78,9T,JT,J9s,8Ts

I would definitely like to see a slightly larger turn bet, something in the $2.15 range, and then go from there on the river. I might just shove the river if my opponent appears to be a bit of a station or I might c/c or I might bet/call a small amount (pot would be $6.90 or so with my bet size) like $3.15.

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