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Draw-heavy board, turned quads betsizing?

  
 
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knaplek
Old 06-03-2009, 02:13 AM     Post subject: Draw-heavy board, turned quads betsizing? #1 (permalink)  
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Not exactly a common situation but I thought it was interesting. Opposition is pretty loose passive.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (UTG) ($11.27)
MP ($10)
CO ($5)
Button ($12.97)
SB ($10.18)
BB ($10)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 8, 8
Hero bets $0.20, 2 folds, Button calls $0.20, SB calls $0.18, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.65) 8, 10, Q (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.60, Button calls $0.60, 1 fold

Turn: ($1.85) 8 (2 players)
Hero???
Total pot: $1.85

Obviously I want to lead here but do you think it's better to lead strong to build a pot or lead more like half pot to price in draws that might stack off if they hit?
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mixchange
Old 06-03-2009, 02:15 AM #2 (permalink)  
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he called pot on the flop and the board is kinda unchanged (it looks like a blank to him) so you should 2/3 pot here at least considering a lot of your value is gonna be on the turn when he folds his missed draw on the river
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knaplek
Old 06-03-2009, 02:40 AM #3 (permalink)  
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For a draw that turn is anything but a blank surely? Do you really think he'll call pot again with just one card to come and a paired board if he's on, say, a flush draw? You wouldn't be tempted to let him catch something on the river that he could stack off with given how deep we are?
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Micro2Macro
Old 06-03-2009, 02:44 AM #4 (permalink)  
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 If you're asking whether you should check the turn or bet the answer is a huge no.

I wouldn't make it less than $1 or more than $1.50 because we want him to call, then hopefully hit big on the river so we can stack him (notice how we're deep).

If the river bricks you can still probably get value from 1 pair type hands in his range and by betting the turn you'll be able to get even more value out on the river.
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Old 06-03-2009, 08:11 AM #5 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
If you're asking whether you should check the turn or bet the answer is a huge no.
fold turn?
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AFchung
Old 06-03-2009, 08:25 AM #6 (permalink)  
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check/fold. he might have a set and i have a feeling the board will give him quads

sorry i dont see the point of this post. bet? bet because if hes drawing that turn card will be a pretty blankish card for him.
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Stacks
Old 06-03-2009, 09:22 AM #7 (permalink)  
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 luls.. Will everyone stfu about the "bet?" stuff? OP obviously knows it's a bet and said so himself in the OP. He asked specifically about betsizing.

I'd just go ahead and bet like $1.50ish. He's obv still stacking off with his nut range, and given stack sizes being deep he might be overzealous and think he has good implied odds with flush/straight draws. Also given he is loose/passive, these tend to be the players that are calling stations, so he isn't going to differentiate much between betsizes, and likely doesn't even consider pot odds/implied odds/paired board at all, and still calls his flush/straight draws.
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bjsaust
Old 06-03-2009, 09:39 AM #8 (permalink)  
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Its not that hard to read the actual question guys...

I played almost the identical hand today and decided to split the difference. I think I bet $13 into $20 with the guy having about $55 behind thinking it also gave him the illusion of fold equity if he felt feisty (which in my case he did and he shoved). Since both you're 200bb deep and he already called basically psb on flop I'd go higher to get max value. Say around $1.50. With such big stacks its still possible he might do something dumb, and he probably thinks he has good implied odds if he's drawing and if if he has a Q might put you on a draw. Go for the value here I think.
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knaplek
Old 06-03-2009, 11:08 AM #9 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by knaplek
Obviously I want to lead here
Quote:
Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
If you're asking whether you should check the turn or bet the answer is a huge no.
Yes that's obviously what I was asking. Not to mention "no" isn't really an answer to the irrelevant question that you just made up.

For what it's worth I led pot and he tanked and folded.
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Old 06-03-2009, 11:52 AM #10 (permalink)  
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we're not in a hurry to get monies in
so the answer is "bet as much as he's willing to call with most of his hands"
I say that because if he's folding Qx for a pot size bet I would be super sad because there's a chance that if we bet 1/2 pot and a river came a queen we'd stack the shit out of him

contrary to what you might expect we should bet as much as possible vs. strong draws because they're not playing for stacks if they hit
NL5 people know what the nuts is and they would check an ace high flush if the board is paired if you let them

the problem is of course he has some gutshots he peeled on the flop as well so he wouldn't be super happy about peeling again
so I'd actually prefer $0.95 here and half pot on the river and pray for a raise
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birdman417
Old 06-05-2009, 05:31 PM #11 (permalink)  
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I have a question sort of tangential to the OP.

Put ourselves in villians shoes...holding say J9o or even sooted...how much would we be willing to bet/call...
and at what point if ever would alarms go off "FOLD he has QUADS!'"


I have to admit if i were holding a str8, I would get stacked by knaplek with his quads...anyone else?
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LawDude
Old 06-05-2009, 06:34 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by birdman417
I have a question sort of tangential to the OP.

Put ourselves in villians shoes...holding say J9o or even sooted...how much would we be willing to bet/call...
and at what point if ever would alarms go off "FOLD he has QUADS!'"


I have to admit if i were holding a str8, I would get stacked by knaplek with his quads...anyone else?
Actually, that's a great question and we can expand it a bit.

What if he has QQ or TT? AQ? AsQs or AhQh? AsTs or AhTh?

I think this is actually a very deep question, because you want to make the bet at the size that will maximize EV through the entirety of Villain's range.
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Micro2Macro
Old 06-06-2009, 12:01 AM #13 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iopq
Quote:
Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
If you're asking whether you should check the turn or bet the answer is a huge no.
fold turn?
lollol I mean don't check turn. It seemed like op was asking whether it would be an option. Sorry if what I typed is worded poorly, ignore the 'or bet' part.

I think potting the turn is a mistake - you allow villain to fold out all the marginal hands/draws that he would otherwise continue with to a smaller bet. And then, if he improves on the river, you'll be able to extract even more. If the river is a blank, you'll still be able to get value out of 1 pair type hands. Size your bet to maximize value out of his range, mid pair type hands might fold to too large of a bet.

Basically I just took this from NLHETAP and I am in no way an expert.
"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."

Check out my blog here!

"You are a degenerate Gaam-balur"

http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
 
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