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Jager

09-19-2006, 05:54 PM Post subject: Downswing Control

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2006

Posts: 754

I experienced my 3rd major downswing.
Brief synopsis:

$100 nl (2700 hands)
80% of Cbets were raised or called , and I was beat everytime.
AA, KK, QQ were beaten consistently with semibluffs that hit or junk(K9, J6, etc.)
Top Pair and 2 pair hands were getting pushed out with reraises 80% of the time or they were beat.
Had only 8 sets, 2 didn't pay at all >$5, 6 did well, 2 I got stacked on(1 str8, 1 fls) both draws.
I was out flushed 2 more times, and only hit the nut flush once for little profit.
Net -$700

I didn't tilt, I played my game the entire time.
My previous 7500 hands of $100 nl I was running over 10ptbb/100.

Is this just variance? Is there something I can do to prevent these downswings? e.g. play shorter, change tablles....

Any suggestions would be appreciated.

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Cocco_Bill

09-19-2006, 06:05 PM

#2 (permalink)

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Join Date: Nov 2004

Location: Sweden

Posts: 1,254

It's variance, your previous 7500 hands were probably positive variance.

Only way to decrease the size and frequency of downswings is to play better.

Fnord

09-19-2006, 06:09 PM

#3 (permalink)

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Fnord is an unknown quantity at this point

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cocco_Bill

Only way to decrease the size and frequency of downswings is to play better relative to our opponents.

FYP

Game/seat selection helps a lot. Also being aware of who you want to play big pots against and who isn't putting in a lot of chips without very strong hands.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

andy-akb

09-19-2006, 07:03 PM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Maine

Posts: 1,836

I have a hard time believing you dropped 7 buyins at 100nl in less than 3k hands. Post your 10 biggest losing hands and let us see what happened. Could it be variance? Yea, but still thats a huge drop at fairly small stakes in a short period of time and Id bet you could have saved a few buyins in different spots.

Fnord

09-19-2006, 07:21 PM

#5 (permalink)

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Quote:

Originally Posted by andy-akb

I have a hard time believing you dropped 7 buyins at 100nl in less than 3k hands.

<---- Has swung over 10 buy-ins at 100NL 6 max.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBvge-c2_Xg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w-Xz8aLuD7Y

Jager

09-19-2006, 07:51 PM

#6 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2006

Posts: 754

Session stats

VPIP: 16.2
PFR: 5.8
Cbet%: 63

Top Ten losing Hands
J6: -98.1 BB flopped top 2 pair, had read on oop to be overpair KK AA pushed, middle man called and hit str8 draw w/ 53o. Oop had KK.
QQ: -96.27
KK: -85.55
AKs: -81.53
AK:-62.92
Q6:-49.5 Flopped 665, turn 5 river 7 beat by 67
KJ: -43.54
A6s:-39.00 Hit flush, beat by 9T o that hit boat on river
AJs:-38.89
KQ:-37.53

I felt some of these neede explaining, maybe could've saved a little if I playd my hands better but it has been tough.

"It is impossible for you to learn what you think you already know."

Jager

09-20-2006, 02:29 AM

#7 (permalink)

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bump

"It is impossible for you to learn what you think you already know."

Jimmy Mac

09-20-2006, 03:30 AM

#8 (permalink)

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Post some of the hands.

WhooFleuryScores

09-20-2006, 05:28 AM

#9 (permalink)

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I've swung 3-5 buyins myself but never 10 buyins no matter how donkey-esque I might've been playing. We really need to see some hands before we can decide if this was variance or leaks.

TerryToma

09-20-2006, 06:10 AM

#10 (permalink)

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was this 2700 hands all in one session?

Oldest TerryBlog (the good ole days): http://www.flopturnriver.com/phpBB2/...oker-40661.htm

Older TerryBlog (failed attempt #1):
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Renton

09-20-2006, 06:48 AM

#11 (permalink)

Straight Flush

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Location: Atlanta, GA, USA

Posts: 5,991

Quote:

Originally Posted by andy-akb

I have a hard time believing you dropped 7 buyins at 100nl in less than 3k hands.

apparently you havent felt the wonderful feeling of dropping 33% of your bankroll in one session due to negative variance (+ a little tilt).

andy-akb

09-20-2006, 03:10 PM

#12 (permalink)

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Location: Maine

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton

Quote:

Originally Posted by andy-akb

I have a hard time believing you dropped 7 buyins at 100nl in less than 3k hands.

apparently you havent felt the wonderful feeling of dropping 33% of your bankroll in one session due to negative variance (+ a little tilt).

Yea you are right, Ive never dropped 13 buyins in a single session at 100nl. Even with a 20buyin roll I think that would be tough to do because Id imagine you would only have a roll that small if you were jsut moving up, and if you were just moving up and got crushed that quickly Id hope you would move down. 12-tabling $2knl its "common" for the incredibly aggressive players to see a 10-15 buyin downswing, but as you move down in stakes I think it becomes exponentially less common.

zook

09-20-2006, 05:44 PM

#13 (permalink)

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Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 3,676

Jager, I'm in a similar situation, although my pre-flop stats are a little looser and more aggressive (18/10). I have dropped 10 buy-ins in my first 4.5K hands 6-tabling 100NL. Some of it has been bad beats and variance, but I'd be lying to myself if I said I was playing the same "A" game that won me 6BB/100 over 25K hands at 50NL.

I had a really hard time adjusting to the laggs at Party 100NL. There seem to be one or two at every table and I'd sit to their left and play more hands with them, but they seemed to either a) pick off my c-bets, b) float on me (and either suck out or bluff me out), or c) catch a monster when I had TPTK or two-pair and I'd lose a lot because I thought they were bluffing again.

Needless to say, I'm moving back to 50NL. Feeling pretty disheartened.

Irisheyes

09-20-2006, 06:32 PM

#14 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jun 2005

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Fnord

Quote:

Originally Posted by andy-akb

I have a hard time believing you dropped 7 buyins at 100nl in less than 3k hands.

<---- Has swung over 10 buy-ins at 100NL 6 max.

Jager

09-20-2006, 07:44 PM

#15 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Aug 2006

Posts: 754

Update:

Total Hands Played 4700
Net - $1050

I am still not hitting any sets, my cbets are being smoked, and my good hands just aren't good enough.

Lots 4 buy ins here:

AK tilt when KJJ flopped.
AA being cracked by J8o hitting a gutshot on turn.
AQ flopped top 2 pair villian had set.
Any advice on this, flopping top 2 pair then being reraised on flop?
KJ flopped JJx villain had AJ.
This has happend frequently as well, how tell when your outkicked w/ trips?

Thanks

"It is impossible for you to learn what you think you already know."

Chris4tw

09-20-2006, 09:24 PM

#16 (permalink)

Join Date: Aug 2006

Posts: 30

If your table image is crap, don't do so many c-bets. People will be more likely to call and maybe re-raise you even if they have nothing, since your table image is loose. Sometimes the opponent will get lucky and actually hit his hand, which makes it hard to make a read on what he has. If you find yourself losing a lot at one table and your c-bets aren't working, I would get up and find a new table to play at.

WhooFleuryScores

09-21-2006, 06:37 AM

#17 (permalink)

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Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Massachusetts

Posts: 918

At this point I would highly recommend you take a couple days off from poker and then go back over some hands;re-evaluate any leaks. We're here to help you but we need you to give us some more info/examples/work with us etc.......

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