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Double Barreling with a Scare Card

  
 
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fatguy'06
Old 05-08-2010, 03:43 AM     Post subject: Double Barreling with a Scare Card #1 (permalink)  
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Join Date: Sep 2009
Posts: 63
fatguy'06
I was watching No Limit Holdem Poker Video - Micro Stakes: Full Ring by Bigspenda - 2 and took note of the very end when he was talking about how if you double barrel with a scare card your opponent only has to fold like 2 out of 5 times for the move to be profitable and it got me thinking.


Lets say we aren't holding much against a tight player with an Ac9c8h flop and we are first to act.

If we attempt to represent the ace and bet half pot that gives 2:1 pot odds so we have to be fairly sure villain will fold more than 1/3 of the time for this to be a profitable play.

On the other hand, we just bet half pot and the villain now has 3:1 pot odds to call, so he only needs to know that we will bluff 1/4 of the time when a scare card pops, right? So if he has a FD with 4.1:1 odds, assuming he doesnt have implied odds, and he beats without flush if we bluffed then he loses 75% of the time. 75% of his 4.1:1 FD odds makes it about 3:1, so then he goes from losing value in this call to breaking even.

Right? I mean then again I'm pretty new to this crazy math stuff..and I made a number of assumptions for the point.. and it is pretty late... and im slightly buzzed.. but it seems like theoretically if you begin to bluff with a scare card, it can cut you down.
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fatguy'06
Old 05-08-2010, 04:35 AM #2 (permalink)  
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fatguy'06
I just found my answer, sorry bout that
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