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Donk with suited flop?

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Fedora

02-02-2010, 03:04 AM Post subject: Donk with suited flop?

#1 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Posts: 91

Too agreesive right here? Thought he'd fold a BIG hand, if not, i had outs

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG ($23.40)
UTG+1 ($4.50)
MP1 ($26.40)
MP2 ($14.70)
MP3 ($25.10)
Hero (CO) ($29.95)
Button ($5.65)
SB ($4.50)
BB ($31.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with

UTG calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP1 calls $0.25, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.25, Hero bets $2, 2 folds, BB calls $1.75, 1 fold, MP1 calls $1.75, MP3 calls $1.75

Flop: ($8.35)

(4 players)
BB checks, MP1 checks, MP3 bets $6, Hero raises $27.95 (All-In), 2 folds, MP3 calls $17.10 (All-In)

Total pot: $54.55

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spoonitnow

02-02-2010, 05:10 AM

#2 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: IRC Chat Room

Posts: 5,406

[ ] Stats
[ ] Reads
[ ] Ranges
[ ] Analysis

We're going to need something like at least 3 out of the above 4 before we can even begin to talk about this hand.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ripptyde

I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.

Rule # 1: don't ask questions

Rule # 2: don't ask questions

I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.

Fedora

02-02-2010, 05:51 AM

#3 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jul 2009

Posts: 91

oops, i pasted the hand over it, haha.

The guy was 17/8/3.1 and 0.0 for 3 bet over a 86 hand sample

So preflop, with the good implied odds, I put his range as
{ 22+, 89s+, AQo+, AJs+, KQs }

When he donks 3/4 pot,
his range is

{ 22, 88, KK, QQ ( with Q of diamonds) AA, T9s+ }

I shoved because I know I was beat right there, with such a big raise, think he'd fold AK, QQ, maybe AA or a small set like 22 or 88 being a TAG. So that's around half the hand, the other hand, I was behind but I had outs.
I thought that was the best play with fold equity.

If i called, then I'd probably fold if I missed on the turn, but he has less than the pot left to fire.

I just didn't see me folding to that flop.

!Luck

02-02-2010, 02:39 PM

#4 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Feb 2004

Location: Under a bridge

Posts: 1,367

I don't think anyone is folding a set here.

spoonitnow

02-02-2010, 05:25 PM

#5 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Sep 2005

Location: IRC Chat Room

Posts: 5,406

Villain's not folding a set here unless he's a total idiot, I mean with a drool bib and everything. Let's address how he should play a set here for some clarification.

22 has about 34.4% equity against AQ of diamonds. After you shove, he's calling $17.10 and the pot before he calls is $37.45 if I counted it correctly. With this in mind, he needs 17.10/(17.10+37.45) = 31.3% equity to call. So not only would he call with a set here, it would be the correct thing to do if he knew you had a flush.

Alright so that should help you out with the ranges you're dealing with here a bit. Now let's help you get some analysis worked out.

When you're semi-bluffing all-in against one potential caller, the EV of your play is the following 3 things added up:

1. (% he folds) * (pot size before you shove)
2. (% he calls) * (your equity) * (pot size before you shove + the bet he called)
3. (% he calls) * (his equity) * (- the bet you shoved)

I'll give you an example and then you can try to work it out for the hand you posted. Say there's a $5 flop pot, my opponent bets $3, I shove to $14 (and he has me covered), he folds 55% of the time, and I have 35% equity when he calls. Here are the three parts:

1. 0.55 * $8 = $4.40
2. 0.45 * 0.35 * ($8 + $11) = $2.99
3. 0.45 * 0.65 * (-$14) = -$4.10

We add up $4.40 + $2.99 - $4.10 = $3.29, and that is what the EV of a shove would be in our example. So let's see what you can do with this.

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Donk with suited flop?

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