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inV1NCEble

07-22-2009, 09:47 PM Post subject: donk potodds question

#1 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2009

Location: Flaming the chatbox cause they just don't get it

Posts: 147

I've read alot articles about potodds on the internet, but something I never seem find is a quick way to figure out if you're draw is +EV.
Sure you look at the bet/(pot+bet) and at your outs, but what do you do after that?

After some fast math I came to this conclusion:
4Flushdraw: Flop: pot Turn: 1/2 pot
4Straightdraw (or double bellybuster): Flop: 3/4 pot Turn: 3/8 pot
I know this isn't exactly precise, but is it even close to the real results??

Also, when you know these do you always have to bet more then that when you want to make someone's draw to expensive. If my calculation is right that would mean that you would have to bet more than the pot everytime there are two suited cards on a board you've hit?. That can't be right.

I'm totally confused now, can anyone help me please?

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Deuce Blue

07-22-2009, 10:00 PM

#2 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jan 2008

Location: Sportsbook $5.50 & $11 S&G's

Posts: 295

What the hell are pododds?? Is that like the odds of getting abducted by aliens or something??

You are an FTR station-pwn'ing badass motherf**ker. You have no pansyass, girly-girl, crybaby fears. Pwn the f**king stations like you know you ought to. And win some damn money, dammit.

07-22-2009, 10:01 PM

#3 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

You have to know whether villian is on a draw to begin with, which isn't always easy to do, and hard to narrow down on just the flop. It isn't an exact science anyhow, since everything is extremely situational. There's times where betting 3/4 pot is optimal and there's times where betting 1/2 the pot is better. I am actually a little confused about your question so hopefully someone here can help you with the math.

nish81

07-22-2009, 10:45 PM

#4 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2009

Posts: 295

If you have 9 outs, i.e. flush draw, you're about 18% to get one of the outs on the turn - 9*2 (i think this applies roughly for most situations you'll find, #of outs times two). This is roughly 20%.

If the pot is .10 and someone bets .02, theres now .12 in the pot and you have to put in another .02. That is, your pot odds are 6:1 but your odds of getting the out is 20%, or 4:1. So you should call because your pot odds are better than your odds of getting the out.

Is this what you meant?

<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.

JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds

inV1NCEble

07-22-2009, 10:55 PM

#5 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2009

Location: Flaming the chatbox cause they just don't get it

Posts: 147

so you just want your potodds to be less then your accual odds?

07-23-2009, 02:45 AM

#6 (permalink)

Guest

Posts: n/a

Who's odds? I'm not even sure what you're asking now. Are you talking about reverse pot/implied odds? Protection betting? I'm confused again...

nish81

07-23-2009, 08:19 AM

#7 (permalink)

Flush

Join Date: Jun 2009

Posts: 295

nutty: I think he's talking about how to decide whether you have enough equity to justify calling a bet based on the pot size and the number outs you have.

invincible: that's correct. another way to look at it is: you have a 20% chance of making your hand. say you're going to be putting in .02 for a 20% chance to win .15. so you're putting in .02 for (.20)(.15), i.e. you're putting in .02 and your stake in the pot is .03 (because over the long run you will win the pot one out of five times). thus the call is +ev

if you PM me your email, i have a helpful ebook on poker math that explained pot odds and implied odds clearly to me before i even discovered this forum

<JustinSKS> Tha'ts why I fold my 33 to 72o, because 7 high beats, 1 pair, donk.

JR: lets do it JUAN
JR: mono e mono
JR: man to man
JR: HU4ROLLZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Dealer: juan0984 folds

inV1NCEble

07-23-2009, 10:13 AM

#8 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2009

Location: Flaming the chatbox cause they just don't get it

Posts: 147

Ok thx alot and sorry if I didn't make myself very clear. It was kinda late when I wrote this

birdman417

07-23-2009, 07:12 PM

#9 (permalink)

3-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2009

Location: US

Posts: 82

very nicely explained nish!

would you be willing to send that ebook to others?
I would like to read it also.

TIA

Stacks

07-23-2009, 07:25 PM

#10 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Jan 2008

Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.

Posts: 2,605

(1) Figure your equity. With say a flush draw on the flop you have a 18% chance of hitting on the next card. This is equivalent to approx 4:1 (80/20).

(2) Determine the equity needed to make a call profitable. There are numerous ways to do this. One would be to just take the pot odds. Another is done by (amount to call) / (pot + amount to call).

(A) Pot odds method. The pot is $20, and villain bets $7. The pot is now $27, and you must call $7. This is very close to 4:1, and therefore with a flush draw on the flop, you have the correct immediate pot odds to call to see the turn cards.

(B) (amount to call) / (pot + amount to call). Using the same example above, the pot is $20, and villain bets $7. The amount you need to call is $7. The pot is now $27. So your formula would look like (7)/(27 + 7) or 7/34, which means in order for a call to be correct based off of immediate pot odds alone, you would need 7/34 = 21% equity.

Both methods produce the same results. Just one is in %, and the other is in a ratio.

Note - Just because you don't have immediate pot odds, doesn't mean a call is -EV. Implied odds play a very large role in NLHE, and should be taken into account also. Say in the above example, villain bets $10 into a $20 pot. The pot is now $30 and you must call $10, so you are only getting 3:1 pot odds. However, a call is profitable if you when you hit on the turn you can extract another $10 from the villain.

inV1NCEble

07-23-2009, 07:45 PM

#11 (permalink)

Straight

Join Date: Feb 2009

Location: Flaming the chatbox cause they just don't get it

Posts: 147

Thx stacks, but I've already read the book nish send. It's the only book about math in HE that accually made sence to me. It cleared up a lot I was confused about reading in other books and it refreshed the things I already knew.
THANKS NISH

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