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onqun
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09-03-2008, 09:56 PM
Post subject: do you calculate everyturn?
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#1 (permalink)
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 36
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hello guys, does everyone calculate the precentage of your winings - your perccentage ofthe bet you did?
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onqun
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 36
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what is the logic of this action,
"Now let's say Player1 bets $12 instead of $2. I would have to call $12 to win what will be a $32 pot. My bet is 37.5% of the pot, greater than my odds of hitting one of my outs, and therefore I should fold (we will get to implied odds further down)."
why should i fold if my bet is (%)more than my odd ?
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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If the bet was the last bet (so the guy is betting all in so no more money to win if we call), then we need to win a higher % of the time than our bet is to the pot in order to be profitable.
1) We're 33% chance to hit our draw, and the pot is $10 and we need to call $5. Two times we lose $5 and one time we win $10. Thats break even.
2) We're 33% chance to hit our draw and the pot is $15 and we need to call $5. Two times we lose $5 and one time we win $15. We make $5 every 3 times.
3) We're 33% chance to hit our draw and the pot is $15 and we need to call $10. Two times we lose $10 and one time we win $15. We lose $5 every 3 times.
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Just playing to improve.
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onqun
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 36
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by bjsaust
If the bet was the last bet (so the guy is betting all in so no more money to win if we call), then we need to win a higher % of the time than our bet is to the pot in order to be profitable.
1) We're 33% chance to hit our draw, and the pot is $10 and we need to call $5. Two times we lose $5 and one time we win $10. Thats break even.
2) We're 33% chance to hit our draw and the pot is $15 and we need to call $5. Two times we lose $5 and one time we win $15. We make $5 every 3 times.
3) We're 33% chance to hit our draw and the pot is $15 and we need to call $10. Two times we lose $10 and one time we win $15. We lose $5 every 3 times.
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so you try to make it even your lose and gain?
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bjsaust
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Straight Flush
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Ballarat, Australia
Posts: 5,842
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No, we try to make it our gain.
1 - We can either call or fold, either is fine.
2 - We should always call, we expect to win money long term.
3 - We should never call, calling this would lose us money long term.
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Just playing to improve.
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onqun
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 36
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okay i understood now. thank you
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Stacks
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Im opedipus bitch, the original balla.
Posts: 2,605
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FWIW, I think this info is right, but I'm not 100% sure, so it's always good to get a second opinion.
Pot odds is how much you are paying in relation to how much you given a chance at winning. Therfore if a pot is $40 and your opponent bets $20. The pot is now $60 and you must call $20. So your getting 60:20 odds or 3;1.
Hand odds is how often you expect to make your hand. You count your outs first (such as flush draw = 9) then you apply a method that determines how often you hit. There are a few different methods. The 2 and 4 rule. (ask if you dont know and we will explain). So you figure out that with 9 outs to come and one card to come you will hit ~18% of the time (4:1). So since your pot odds are less than the chances you make your hand you aren't etting proper immediate pot odds to call.
HOWEVER, there is such a thing as implied odds. So since on the turn you need 4:1 odds to call, but are only being offerd 3;1 youa ren't getting immediate pot odds. However, if you expect to make enough on the river the times you do hit then you can profitably call. In this instance you would need to on average make an additional $20 on the river to be breakeven. Well since the pot will be $80 on the river if youc all the turn, then it's reasonable to assume you will make more than that on the river the times you hit, so it's probably a profitable turn call in most instances.
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onqun
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Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 36
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thnx alot buddy
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Then there are reverse implied odds like when you have a small FD, the villain might have a higher FD, and it might not be good even if you hit it, or on a paired board when he might make draw out on you even if you hit it. There are cases where you want even higher than pure pot odds to continue to draw.
You also shouldn't get too hung up on implied odds if you have a very obvious draw, and your opponent plays very passive.
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