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Did the implied odds make this a call?

  
 
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Vinland
Old 05-07-2009, 01:53 PM     Post subject: Did the implied odds make this a call? #1 (permalink)  
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 Villain was pretty conservative for 2nl. No stats worthwhile noting yet. I'll post thoughts on the hand after.

No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($4.98)
BB ($3)
UTG ($0.70)
UTG+1 ($6.11)
MP1 ($7.15)
Villain (MP2) ($6.55)
Hero (CO) ($4.16)
Button ($0.95)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J, J
2 folds, MP1 calls $0.02, Villain calls $0.02, Hero bets $0.10, 4 folds, Villain calls $0.08

Flop: ($0.25) 5, Q, 10 (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.20, Villain calls $0.20

Turn: ($0.65) J (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.42, Villain raises $0.84, Hero calls $0.42

O.K. here are my thoughts.
I had JJ so I raised it up, pretty straight forward.
A player who has been fairly conservative has just limp called a raise so I figure mid PP and high cards are in his range.
On the flop I hit the set and there is a possible flush draw on board so I attempt to charge for it. He calls, he has been pretty straight forward at the table thusfar so I am thinking he has a flush draw (probably K or A high) or he has paired a Q or T and has a decent kicker.
Turn gives 3rd spade and he min raises me. He just turned his cards over IMO given his playing style.
So, I have 10 outs. I called immediately, knowing that my expressed odds were probably not there but I didnt think he would have a low flush and be worried about losing to a higher one. In other words, if I pair the board I am 99% confident I am getting his stack.

Would you agree with my call?
Feel free to discuss anything else about the hand as well.
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Lucothefish
Old 05-07-2009, 01:59 PM #2 (permalink)  
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 Someone will correct me if I'm wrong but you're getting almost exact direct pot odds to call the minraise. 21% chance, 21% of pot. So with implied odds as well this is an easy call as played.
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Vinland
Old 05-07-2009, 02:03 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 I think I am doing this right...
Pot was $1.49 and I had to cal $.42
21% of $1.49 is $.31 so I had to call for more than the expressed odds allowed?
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Lucothefish
Old 05-07-2009, 02:07 PM #4 (permalink)  
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 Pot was $1.91, you include your turn bet.
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settecba
Old 05-07-2009, 02:07 PM #5 (permalink)  
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pot isnt 1.49

think of the following: you make a ps bet, opp minraises you, what are your inmediate pot odds?
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Vinland
Old 05-07-2009, 02:11 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Oh snap! yeah duh!

I had the odds to call anyway....
Thats minraises for you...
Alright,we can put this one to bed. thx
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bigspenda73
Old 05-07-2009, 02:18 PM #7 (permalink)  
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 INFINITY IMPLIED ODDSZZZZZZ

i'd say go for it
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Lucothefish
Old 05-07-2009, 02:31 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 So how much does our villain need to raise to here before we no longer have implied odds? It's somewhere near the $1.60 mark isn't it? Assuming he stacks off every time of course.
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Vinland
Old 05-07-2009, 02:46 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 I dont really know where to draw the line on implied odds. If he made it a 3X bet on the turn I would have called but not 3.5X or 4X. Not sure what the answer is. I just think once we get to 3.5X, its a large enough amount of my stack that I would let it go.
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bigspenda73
Old 05-07-2009, 02:58 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Vinland
I dont really know where to draw the line on implied odds. If he made it a 3X bet on the turn I would have called but not 3.5X or 4X. Not sure what the answer is. I just think once we get to 3.5X, its a large enough amount of my stack that I would let it go.
it's simple math, why do you assume you know the correct answer if you haven't taken the 2 minutes to run the break-even equation?
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Vinland
Old 05-07-2009, 03:43 PM #11 (permalink)  
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Quote:
why do you assume you know the correct answer
Vinland humbly said:
Quote:
Not sure what the answer is
Quote:
it's simple math
I'm sure it is...I've just never seen how to do it yet.

I'll take a shot using Lucothefishs' example.
I bet $.42 and villain raises it to $1.60. I have to call $1.18 into a pot that is $2.67
My stack after my turn bet is $3.44 and I have to call $1.18
So I am calling $1.18 to win pot ($2.67) + my leftover stack x2 minus my turn call? ($4.52)? I am assuming for this example that my expectation is 100% that he will go all in.
I am a 4:1 dog but I have to call 1.18 to win $7.19 or 6:1 implied odds....
Am i somewhat close here?
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Ragnar4
Old 05-07-2009, 03:58 PM #12 (permalink)  
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Is it possible you don't know the diff between implied and immediate odds?

Could you define for me Immediate odds first, implied odds second?

Because by your responses, I think you have them confuzzled.
The older I get, the more I start wondering; Just what in the hell is going on here?
 
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Vinland
Old 05-07-2009, 04:28 PM #13 (permalink)  
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Vinland is an unknown quantity at this point
 Using Lucothefishs' example of villain raising to $1.60:

Immediate Odds: I call $1.18 to win pot of $2.67 or 2.3:1
I am a 4:1 underdog so the immediate odds do not allow me to call on that alone.

Implied Odds: "Immediate odds plus any money I may make on future streets" I call $1.18 to win $2.67 plus the rest of the effective stack. (not sure if its my whole remaining stack or my remaining stack - $1.18 (what it takes to call the turn raise). I'll assume the later. So I call $1.18 to win $2.67+$2.26 = $4.93 which is 4.1:1
I think I added too much into my first try.....
But still even in this scenarion I think the implied odds are still there. I am a 4:1 dog but implied odds are approx 4.1:1.

I hope I am getting this.
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JuiceyJ
Old 05-07-2009, 04:48 PM #14 (permalink)  

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Well played.. I woulda done the same thing.
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Kijjo
Old 05-07-2009, 05:00 PM #15 (permalink)  
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Side note since this thread has turned down this odds lesson road (which is ofcourse a necessary lesson) - at 2NL you have to also consider that this guy has no piece of a flush. I used to watch guys beat the crap out of each other betting their whole stacks with 4 to a flush on the board and neither one has a flush, they got top pair or two pair, etc. Once you factor that in, you have all the odds in the world to play this hand. Sure once in a while they guy actually does have the flush or at least the draw, but you'll get paid for your set in this place SO MANY TIMES, you gotta play this against NEARLY every opponent in 2NL and 5NL.
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Monsieur_chat
Old 05-08-2009, 07:34 AM #16 (permalink)  
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One of my favorite situations in poker - when the board pairs on the river, you hollywood for ages then throw out something weak looking and he shoves over you
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