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Anosmic

04-13-2007, 08:13 PM Post subject: Did I play well?

#1 (permalink)

Full House

Join Date: Jan 2006

Location: Sweden

Posts: 999

I'm having a fairly poor month. It's a combination of factors, really.
I've lost about $1.4k at SHNL, while I'm only up slightly at full-ring.

If I look at my PT stats so far this month I can see I've had 50.77% winning sessions, I W$WSF 35% and W$@SD 49.32%.

But did I play well?

Is it luck? Am I winning or losing the battle of mistakes? What's the truth?
I have had some outrageous suckouts... but are they blinding me to what's really going on?

So I decided to analyse my session, it's not something I do often, so I'd be interested in hearing what others think of the method.

I sat down with my PT open for today and looked over 315 hands, or rather those where I was involved in the pot.
I opened up an excel and created five columns: Ahead, Good, Unknown, ??, Behind.

I then assign my bets and calls to those columns. If I was clearly ahead (call a pre-flop push with AA and he has KK you are clearly ahead regardless of results).
A weakness may be that while actually ahead the "read" that lead to a call was really just luck and that in the long run it'll be a losing move... but I accept that for now and hope to show that in other columns.

If I make bets post-flop when I'm clearly behind then they get added to the "behind" column. LIke where I had AQ and flopped Q86 versus a villain with 66. Okay, understandable, but my bets are now with me "behind".

In the Good/?? columns I include pre-flop raises and c-bets or calling c-bets with marginal hands. If it leads to a win it's good, if it doesn't it's quesitonable. It's results oriented, but that's the way it has to be.
I only include what goes into the pot, not what's uncalled (so c-betting $10 into a $12 pot counts only as whatever was in the middle... whereas if I c-bet $10 and get raised $30 then that $10 goes in the bad... which may be unfair but is more useful).

THe unknown is for things I don't want to place elsewhere. I.e. PPs called pre-flop for set value and blinds etc

My results were:

Code:

$305  Ahead
$261  Good
$104  Unknown
$299  ??
$113  Behind

My biggest loss today was when A8s pushed on a 864 board against my TT. He had TPTK and a flush draw. He was 49.8% so I have to call at any odds. So when he hits an A on the turn and I lose $91 that's still an "ahead" hand.
Now, one can argue "do you really call there", was I lucky that I was even ahead? Is it a bad call given his range? Or was it a good read?
Well, if it's bad then eventually there'll be many such hands that wind up in the "behind" column and we'll see.

I'm playing very laggy right now (which surely makes for more variance). But if you look at the PFRs and C-bets they're actually a loser for me, because they lost me $298 and won $261.
So am I too loose, or do we expect to lose a little here to mask our good hands?

I can also at look at number of hands. In 44 hands my pfr/cbet worked and in 18 it failed... but of course I lost more on the losses than I gained on the wins.

As far as good/bad calls go I seem to be significantly ahead.

So I'm going to say it was a good session and I played well. Now, perhaps I can stop making as many mistakes; but in general if I keep getting more money in when ahead than I do when behind then I'm playing winning poker.

What do you guys think? Is this a valid way to analyse a session? Does anyone else do anything like this?
I'm also wondering whether some sort of software tool for analysing PT data in this way would be useful?

Blah blah Op Blah blah

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zook

04-13-2007, 10:20 PM

#2 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 3,676

Funny you should mention this. There are a few programmers over in the 2p2 software forum working on just such an app. See this thread for lots of details:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...Number=9774803

I haven't tried any of these yet b/c everything's still in beta and I've been busy, but I'm really excited for the end product. Basically, you'll be able to plug in whole sessions, or lots of sessions, and the software will calculate your all-in equity so you can compare it to your actual equity. So you'll be able to find out if you're running better or worse than you should be, based on your all-in decisions. SO FUCKING COOL.

Miffed22001

04-13-2007, 10:38 PM

#3 (permalink)

Straight Flush

Join Date: Jun 2005

Location: Marry Me Cheryl!!!

Posts: 8,181

Quote:

Originally Posted by zook

i saw lots of geek talk and decided to quit.

have they got a dumbass friendly version that just calculates it all or not?

zook

04-13-2007, 10:41 PM

#4 (permalink)

4-of-a-Kind

Join Date: Mar 2006

Posts: 3,676

Quote:

Originally Posted by Miffed22001

i saw lots of geek talk and decided to quit.

have they got a dumbass friendly version that just calculates it all or not?

LOL. Not quite yet. I mean, it seems like yes if you're computer-savvy, but I've going to wait a few more days. I'll post here when I start using it.

edit: Start reading from the end of that thread if you want to find download links for programs that work. There are three people working on separate apps and it sounds like Phil's will eventually be the best and have the most features, but it's in beta-test mode and you have to e-mail him if you want to be a tester.

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