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did i miss a vital clue in his stats ?

  
 
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celtic123
Old 12-21-2009, 03:25 PM     Post subject: did i miss a vital clue in his stats ? #1 (permalink)  
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 PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP2 30 /0 /20 over 36 hands. I keep track of limpers frequence, he had limped in 34% of the time. I only saw A5o in a previous hand where he limed in UTG.

So Im ranging him on Ax Kx, and tiny pairs, ive been curious all the while what hes limping with so often.

CO ($3.69)
Button ($3)
Hero (SB) ($5.04)
BB ($4.92)
UTG ($1.17)
UTG+1 ($2.20)
MP1 ($1.10)
MP2 ($0.97)
MP3 ($2.28)


Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, 10
3 folds, MP2 calls $0.02, 3 folds, Hero bets $0.08, 1 fold, MP2 calls $0.06

Flop: ($0.18) 5, 7, 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.12, MP2 calls $0.12

Heres my Cbet, I still think im ahead.

Turn: ($0.42) J (2 players)
Hero bets $0.76, MP2 calls $0.76

NOw, I dont think this J hurts me,And ive had enough of this .limping shortstacker, so I want him to go away, so I aim for his little stack.

Total pot: $1.96 | Rake: $0.05
Main pot: $1.96 between Hero and MP2, won by MP2

Here Is my question.

Does his stat of PFR of Zero and his liming to see the flop so often, and the fact he was intrested in staying in the pot hint at what he actually had ?

Im bankrolled to move up a level, but A little nervous cos, I think I need to know more before I move up. And even tho this is a miniscule pot and position to be in. Its bugging me.
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Sasquach991
Old 12-21-2009, 04:01 PM #2 (permalink)  
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If you still think you're ahead then why do you want him to go away?
"Just cause I'm from the South don't mean I ain't got no book learnin'"

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Originally Posted by a500lbgorilla View Post
...we've all learned long ago how to share the truth without actually having the truth.
 
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celtic123
Old 12-21-2009, 04:15 PM #3 (permalink)  
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 Yes, I see my flawed logic. My reaction must be some kind of tilt .

Its making me think, perhaps Im thinking Im superior because Im running good, I need to take a step back.
Thanks for a response.
http://i459.photobucket.com/albums/q...3116_332-1.jpg
 
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inV1NCEble
Old 12-21-2009, 04:25 PM #4 (permalink)  
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You obviously aren't thinking you're superior if you aren't going up in stakes. I don't think it's necessary to repeat what Sasquach991 said..

OMG POKERTRACKER IS RIGGED!
 
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Dex
Old 12-21-2009, 07:01 PM #5 (permalink)  
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I'd suggest raising a little more pf, firstly because you're out of position if he calls and secondly he's limp/calling so often we can raise more as an idiot tax.

If you raise 4x+1bb for the limper, pot on the flop is 22c. I'd size the cbet bigger than 2/3, it's a drawy board, he's gonna end up with a bunch of gutters, pairs and combo draws so charge him! Is he going to fold A8o on the flop? Nah! Anything between 18c to pot is fine, and makes the turn much less of an overbet if you decide to do this.

Betsizing aside, I think the line you took was fine.
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celtic123
Old 12-21-2009, 07:27 PM #6 (permalink)  
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 Ok thanks for the betsizing correction.

I was also wondering if someone has a PRF 0% does it indicate someone who slowplays AA,KK,QQ,JJ as a generalization ?
http://i459.photobucket.com/albums/q...3116_332-1.jpg
 
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Dex
Old 12-21-2009, 07:56 PM #7 (permalink)  
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I don't think the sample size is much use besides to tell you that he's passive and calls a lot, at least pf. What helps here is reads, in the same way knowing he limps A5o utg can give you an idea of the kind of hands he may limp/call and have on this board, having seen him limp a big pocket pair pf would help a lot more than stats after this few hands.

It's possible he does limp/call big pairs. It's also possible they haven't been dealt one yet.
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JKDS
Old 12-21-2009, 08:01 PM #8 (permalink)  
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 its not hard for a bunch of poker players to figure out he had QQ+ here based just on the title alone and the focus of the question. please dont post results if you want an actual discussion of what villain's range could be and how best to play against it.

As is, hes played like 4 orbits and has so far limped abunch of times and doesnt raise. Its entierely possible that he hasnt had a hand worth raising in this time frame...but as that raising range widens the likelihood he hasnt raised by now shrinks. Just a random guess, raising at or below the top 5% of hands seems reasonable. So at this point, we assume that hands like TT-AA could be in his limp calling range, but we discount them a little bit. But...just because these hands are there is no reason to play against him any differently, its only a small part of his wide range after all.

to the hand, raise more preflop! We have a shorty who loves to limp call and we got a nice hand, at least 10c here, and more baring better reads.

flop, bet more too, his stack sucks and hes passive as fuck. Psb probably still gets calls from his middle pairs and gutters so go ahead and bet pot.

turn: by doing the above, we should be able to get to the turn with less than a psb behind for villain, just stick it in. There shouldnt be many hands in his range that benefited from the jack and we should also still be able to get calls from his flush and straight draws as well as some of his middle pair type hands.
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But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
 
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kiwiMark
Old 12-21-2009, 08:24 PM #9 (permalink)  
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 Stop doing shit like that on the turn. Basically looks like tilt, you were excited when you got a pocket pair, and were annoyed when a scary card hit. The "FUCK a card that beats me hit I'm gonna bet huge to scare him away at the same time hoping he's gonna call me with his pair of 7's" thought process is the only one that I can manage to attribute here.

Feel free to correct me by putting him on a range- you "don't think the J hurt [you]" - what cards is he playing preflop and flop like this with that also call a shove here?

I should make it clear that I'm not even saying that keeping firing this turn is always wrong, just that you need to be thinking about what you expect to happen (he folds, he calls, he raises) when you make a bet, and why you expect that to happen (the range of cards you're putting him on, and how he plays them) before you click a button.
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celtic123
Old 12-21-2009, 09:14 PM #10 (permalink)  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwiMark
Basically looks like tilt, you were excited when you got a pocket pair, and were annoyed when a scary card hit. The "FUCK a card that beats me hit I'm gonna bet huge to scare him away at the same time hoping he's gonna call me with his pair of 7's" thought process is the only one that I can manage to attribute here.

Feel free to correct me by putting him on a range- you "don't think the J hurt [you]" - what cards is he playing preflop and flop like this with that also call a shove here?

I should make it clear that I'm not even saying that keeping firing this turn is always wrong, just that you need to be thinking about what you expect to happen (he folds, he calls, he raises) when you make a bet, and why you expect that to happen (the range of cards you're putting him on, and how he plays them) before you click a button.
you 100% on the tilt, It was a tilt, Im thinking it was with frustration, because I didnt know how to define a range for someone who never raised . Just limped. and because I had seen him with Ax , the only hand I saw so I thought Ax or kx .

And your right, my thought process didnt change during the hand, I thought Ax , tunnel vision.

Im glad you picked on it and pointed it out.
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kmind
Old 12-21-2009, 11:36 PM #11 (permalink)  
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 Hand looks fine you obv have to bet turn and he's obv putting his stack in if he continues. Sure bet smaller on the turn if you really think he calls more but i find greater success in just overbetting vs. these guys. Glad you realize the flaw in your thinking.
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